Warren

and after the stuff from the last day or so.. Culinary won't endorse. Very productive last few days for everybody involved.

If anybody has to guess. Who drops out after NV ? Gabbard, with Warren as the wild card. I don’t think someone as rich as Steyer is bowing out this early, denial of New Hampshire rumors notwithstanding.

I don't see anyone dropping out after Nevada. Pete, Bernie, Amy and Bloomberg continue. Steyer, Joe, and even Tulsi seem to be focusing on South Carolina - that is the state that will probably be the candidate graveyard. Warren, I can't see dropping out before March 3 - with a last stand in Massachusetts and Oklahoma. When she loses those, like Anderson, Willkie and Brown did in Wisconsin, it will be bye bye time for her.

If Biden holds on and finishes 2nd, then at least he has something positive to point to going into SC/Super Tuesday. This being a caucus, there is probably some complex math where the candidates between 10-14% are gonna throw the overall result into a loop. Although some of the result might depend on who is above 15% where. Meaning Bernie could win the most county delegates, but also get fewer delegates in some places. Like if there's 3 precincts with 9 delegates and Bernie loses all three by a 5-4 margin, but the 3 precincts are won by different candidates, so Sanders gets 12 delegates and everybody else gets 5 each out of 27. If Warren drops before Super Tuesday, then I suspect it'll be because they're not confident in the MA result and want to avoid the blow of losing her state while still a candidate. Oklahoma is just a complete wildcard, I have no idea what the people who still haven't switched their registration are gonna do there or if people living in Oklahoma have a special affinity to people who moved out of Oklahoma.

a good portion of Biden's prospects kinda involve Bloomberg having a bad debate in NV and hoping that people getting cold feet on Bloomberg move back to Biden instead of just backing the national leader. The one thing that would prevent any sort of contested convention is it would take some stomach to go through with it.

it's possible that Steyer not making the Wednesday debate could prove itself helpful to the whole "maybe Joe finishes 2nd in NV" thing.

a good portion of Biden's prospects kinda involve Bloomberg having a bad debate in NV and hoping that people getting cold feet on Bloomberg move back to Biden instead of just backing the national leader. Well, I think Bloomberg had a bad debate. Or at the very best, a not-good debate. The catch is executing part two of this plan.. which probably involves Biden finishing 2nd on Saturday. I'd think the three most likely to finish 2nd are Biden, Buttigieg and Warren. Buttigieg was sorta bogged down on Wednesday and Warren showed signs of life. It's possible there'll be more early votes than Saturday votes, just to mess with predictions here.

I agree Bloomberg had a horrible debate last night. His body language was screaming "I don't want to be here".

Well, I think Bloomberg had a bad debate. Or at the very best, a not-good debate. Bloomberg was flogged, end of story. The catch is executing part two of this plan.. which probably involves Biden finishing 2nd on Saturday. Was Biden even at the debate? I'd think the three most likely to finish 2nd are Biden, Buttigieg and Warren. Buttigieg was sorta bogged down on Wednesday and Warren showed signs of life. Buttigieg had some good moments like when he simultaneously attacked Sanders and Bloomberg, but he shouldn't have picked a fight with Klobuchar. Warren was the standout, though, but with alot of people already having voted there might not be enough effect on the Nevada results. It's possible there'll be more early votes than Saturday votes, just to mess with predictions here. The assumption is that with the non-Sanders vote still splintered Sanders will get a plurality. I'm thinking Warren for 2nd place, but we are mostly blowing smoke if we think we know what will happen.

suspecting it's possible Pete finishes 2nd, especially if there's a lot of older people who voted early

Pete overperformed in IA and NH, so my prediction is that he will again here: Sanders 30% Buttigieg 27% Warren 18% Biden 10% Klobuchar 8% Steyer 5%

oh yeah, NV is doing the same first/final alignment thing as Iowa. Only nonviable candidates have to pick a viable candidate instead of having a chance to boost somebody up. So I suspect that if one of Biden or Pete misses in a precinct, the other will benefit. Klobuchar will probably miss in most precincts and go to Joe/Pete despite Klobuchar hating Buttigieg. There'll probably be a clear first/final alignment gap between Sanders in places where Warren is viable and places where she isn't. I think the rules difference means that if there's a precinct with one viable candidate, the rest can just become uncommitted. Anyways, Sanders best margin is probably first alignment. The rest could improve more on final alignment. I suspect the delegate alignment isn't going to be anything too wacky. So as noted last week, there's a way to have something like three precincts of 9 delegates each where Sanders wins 4, another candidate wins 5, and Sanders wins 12-5-5-5 because the other candidates are splintered. All in all, hopefully Harry Reid doesn't have to whoop too many people to make Nevada run better than Iowa.

You know, I wasn't alive in 1972, but it will be interesting to watch George McGovern 2.0 lose in a landslide to the most corrupt president since Richard Nixon!

3 for 3. Looking pretty good for Bernie so far...

As long as you ignore their Warren number, Data for Progress did well with the other numbers. Biden didn't finish 3rd, so that's helpful for him. Of course that he finished 2nd in a state where the winner won by double digits. Buttigieg had over 15% in the alignments but will likely finish below 15% in delegates because of how badly he did in CD1 and CD4. Of course Warren got to double digits and only shows up on the deviation map for one small county. Klobuchar apparently concentrated efforts on Reno Tom Steyer's result here suggests he might have problems beating his polls in SC. Not sure how many results on the second row are holdouts and how many are data entry errors.