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  NV US President - D Caucus
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Nevada > President
Parent RaceUS President - D Primaries
OfficePresident
TypeDemocratic Primary Election
Filing Deadline January 01, 2020 - 04:00pm Central
Polls Open February 22, 2020 - 12:00pm Central
Polls Close February 22, 2020 - 03:00pm Central
Term Start January 20, 2021 - 12:00pm
Term End January 20, 2025 - 12:00pm
ContributorRBH
Last ModifiedRBH February 24, 2020 03:53pm
Data Sources[Link]
[Link]
Description This Race page and map reports the "Final Alignment" results.
"First Alignment" results appear on the "Ballot Round 0" line.


Closed Caucus.

36 pledged delegates.
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/08/2016
NameHillary Clinton Votes539,260 (47.92%)
Term01/20/2017 - 01/20/2021 Margin27,202 (+2.42%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/03/2020
NameJoe Biden Votes703,486 (50.06%)
Term01/20/2021 - 01/20/2025 Margin33,596 (+2.39%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
RaceNV US President 11/03/2020
MAP

Curve
Embed Code Data
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
06/05/2019 02/22/2020
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Bernie Sanders 8 5 1 --
Leaning Call: Bernie Sanders (100.00%)
Weighted Call: Bernie Sanders (100.00%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

03/28/2019 02/21/2020

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Sen. Bernie Sanders Vice President Joe Biden Mayor Pete Buttigieg Sen. Elizabeth Warren Sen. Amy Klobuchar Tom Steyer Uncommitted
PartyDemocratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic
Campaign Logo
Uncertified Votes 41,075 (40.45%) 19,179 (18.89%) 17,598 (17.33%) 11,703 (11.53%) 7,376 (7.26%) 4,120 (4.06%) 367 (0.36%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -21,896 (-21.56%) -23,477 (-23.12%) -29,372 (-28.93%) -33,699 (-33.19%) -36,955 (-36.39%) -40,708 (-40.09%)
Predict Avg.29.00% 22.00% 13.00% 14.00% 5.00% 7.00% 0.00%
Ballot Round 0 35,652 (33.48%) 18,424 (17.30%) 16,102 (15.12%) 13,438 (12.62%) 11,703 (10.99%) 9,503 (8.92%) 472 (0.44%)  
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
Website [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website]
Entry Date 00/00/2020 00/00/2020 00/00/2020 00/00/2020 00/00/2020 00/00/2020 01/01/2020
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (21 from 15 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg27.28%-- 16.44%-- 12.76%-- 11.48%-- 8.68%-- 11.72%-- 0.00%--
Data for Progress 
02/19/20-02/21/20
35.00% -- 16.00% 2.0 15.00% -- 16.00% -- 8.00% 1.0 8.00% 2.0 0.00% --
AtlasIntel 
02/19/20-02/21/20
38.00% -- 11.00% -- 14.00% -- 9.00% -- 5.00% -- 11.00% -- 0.00% --
Emerson College 
02/19/20-02/20/20
30.40% -- 16.10% -- 16.90% -- 12.10% -- 11.00% -- 9.80% -- 0.00% --
Point Blank Political 
02/13/20-02/15/20
13.00% -- 14.30% -- 12.60% -- 7.10% -- 15.60% -- 18.60% -- 0.00% --
Beacon Research (D) 
02/12/20-02/15/20
24.00% -- 19.00% -- 13.00% -- 10.00% -- 7.00% -- 18.00% -- 0.00% --
Data for Progress 
02/12/20-02/15/20
35.00% -- 14.00% -- 15.00% -- 16.00% -- 9.00% -- 10.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name Andrew Yang Sen. Michael Bennet Rep. Tulsi Gabbard Gov. Deval L. Patrick Rep. John K. Delaney  
PartyDemocratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic  
Campaign Logo  
Uncertified Votes 49 (0.05%) 36 (0.04%) 32 (0.03%) 8 (0.01%) 0 (0.00%)  
Margin-41,026 (-40.40%) -41,039 (-40.42%) -41,043 (-40.42%) -41,067 (-40.44%) -41,075 (-40.45%)  
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%  
Ballot Round 0 612 (0.58%) 140 (0.13%) 353 (0.33%) 86 (0.08%) 1 (0.00%)  
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $--  
Website [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website]  
Entry Date 00/00/2020 00/00/2020 00/00/2020 00/00/2020 00/00/2020  
MATCHUP POLLS (21 from 15 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg4.31%-- 0.50%-- 2.08%-- 0.00%-- 0.50%--  
Data for Progress 
02/19/20-02/21/20
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 2.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
AtlasIntel 
02/19/20-02/21/20
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 3.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Emerson College 
02/19/20-02/20/20
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 1.90% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Point Blank Political 
02/13/20-02/15/20
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 1.70% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Beacon Research (D) 
02/12/20-02/15/20
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Data for Progress 
02/12/20-02/15/20
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 2.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 

DROPPED OUT - NO VOTES
Michael R. "Mike" Bloomberg (D)
 00, 2020
Cory Booker (D)
 00, 2020 -  00, 2020
Julián Castro (D)
 00, 2020
Marianne Williamson (D)
 00, 2020 -  00, 2020
Kamala Harris (D)
Dec 03, 2019
Steve Bullock (D)
Dec 02, 2019
Joseph A. Sestak (D)
Dec 01, 2019
Wayne M. Messam (D)
Nov 20, 2019
Beto O'Rourke (D)
Nov 01, 2019
Tim Ryan (D)
Oct 24, 2019
Bill de Blasio (D)
Sep 20, 2019
Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
Aug 28, 2019
Seth Moulton (D)
Aug 23, 2019
Jay Inslee (D)
Aug 21, 2019
John Hickenlooper (D)
Aug 15, 2019
Mike Gravel (D)
Aug 06, 2019

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Feb 22, 2020 10:00am Election Guide 'It could be a zoo': Nevada on edge as caucus day arrives  Article WA Indy 
Dec 22, 2019 04:00am General Indian Country, long an afterthought in campaigns, is positioning itself as a force to be reckoned with in 2020  Article IndyGeorgia 

DISCUSSION
[View All
29
Previous Messages]
 
I:1038WA Indy ( 1454.9387 points)
Thu, February 13, 2020 04:36:07 PM UTC0:00
Warren

 
D:1989RBH ( 4408.5454 points)
Thu, February 13, 2020 09:09:13 PM UTC0:00
and after the stuff from the last day or so.. Culinary won't endorse.

Very productive last few days for everybody involved.

 
D:2109AJ ( 5274.8340 points)
Thu, February 13, 2020 10:24:31 PM UTC0:00
Tar Heel Conservative Dem: If anybody has to guess. Who drops out after NV ?

Gabbard, with Warren as the wild card. I don’t think someone as rich as Steyer is bowing out this early, denial of New Hampshire rumors notwithstanding.

 
Veg:334Thomas Walker ( 525.4157 points)
Fri, February 14, 2020 03:13:38 PM UTC0:00
I don't see anyone dropping out after Nevada.

Pete, Bernie, Amy and Bloomberg continue.

Steyer, Joe, and even Tulsi seem to be focusing on South Carolina - that is the state that will probably be the candidate graveyard.

Warren, I can't see dropping out before March 3 - with a last stand in Massachusetts and Oklahoma. When she loses those, like Anderson, Willkie and Brown did in Wisconsin, it will be bye bye time for her.

 
D:1989RBH ( 4408.5454 points)
Fri, February 14, 2020 06:56:04 PM UTC0:00
If Biden holds on and finishes 2nd, then at least he has something positive to point to going into SC/Super Tuesday.

This being a caucus, there is probably some complex math where the candidates between 10-14% are gonna throw the overall result into a loop. Although some of the result might depend on who is above 15% where.

Meaning Bernie could win the most county delegates, but also get fewer delegates in some places.

Like if there's 3 precincts with 9 delegates and Bernie loses all three by a 5-4 margin, but the 3 precincts are won by different candidates, so Sanders gets 12 delegates and everybody else gets 5 each out of 27.

If Warren drops before Super Tuesday, then I suspect it'll be because they're not confident in the MA result and want to avoid the blow of losing her state while still a candidate.

Oklahoma is just a complete wildcard, I have no idea what the people who still haven't switched their registration are gonna do there or if people living in Oklahoma have a special affinity to people who moved out of Oklahoma.

 
D:2109AJ ( 5274.8340 points)
Sat, February 15, 2020 12:02:07 AM UTC0:00
Biden will run against Bernie and win

Or Biden will run against Warren and win that way too

 
D:1989RBH ( 4408.5454 points)
Sat, February 15, 2020 02:09:57 AM UTC0:00
a good portion of Biden's prospects kinda involve Bloomberg having a bad debate in NV and hoping that people getting cold feet on Bloomberg move back to Biden instead of just backing the national leader.

The one thing that would prevent any sort of contested convention is it would take some stomach to go through with it.

 
D:1989RBH ( 4408.5454 points)
Tue, February 18, 2020 07:52:54 PM UTC0:00
it's possible that Steyer not making the Wednesday debate could prove itself helpful to the whole "maybe Joe finishes 2nd in NV" thing.

 
D:1989RBH ( 4408.5454 points)
Thu, February 20, 2020 05:42:50 AM UTC0:00
RBH: a good portion of Biden's prospects kinda involve Bloomberg having a bad debate in NV and hoping that people getting cold feet on Bloomberg move back to Biden instead of just backing the national leader.

Well, I think Bloomberg had a bad debate. Or at the very best, a not-good debate.

The catch is executing part two of this plan.. which probably involves Biden finishing 2nd on Saturday.

I'd think the three most likely to finish 2nd are Biden, Buttigieg and Warren. Buttigieg was sorta bogged down on Wednesday and Warren showed signs of life.

It's possible there'll be more early votes than Saturday votes, just to mess with predictions here.

 
D:10409Tar Heel Conservative Dem ( 0.0000 points)
Thu, February 20, 2020 04:27:26 PM UTC0:00
I agree Bloomberg had a horrible debate last night. His body language was screaming "I don't want to be here".

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4320.8682 points)
Thu, February 20, 2020 04:53:50 PM UTC0:00
RBH: Well, I think Bloomberg had a bad debate. Or at the very best, a not-good debate.

Bloomberg was flogged, end of story.

RBH: The catch is executing part two of this plan.. which probably involves Biden finishing 2nd on Saturday.

Was Biden even at the debate?

RBH: I'd think the three most likely to finish 2nd are Biden, Buttigieg and Warren. Buttigieg was sorta bogged down on Wednesday and Warren showed signs of life.

Buttigieg had some good moments like when he simultaneously attacked Sanders and Bloomberg, but he shouldn't have picked a fight with Klobuchar. Warren was the standout, though, but with alot of people already having voted there might not be enough effect on the Nevada results.

RBH: It's possible there'll be more early votes than Saturday votes, just to mess with predictions here.

The assumption is that with the non-Sanders vote still splintered Sanders will get a plurality. I'm thinking Warren for 2nd place, but we are mostly blowing smoke if we think we know what will happen.

 
D:1989RBH ( 4408.5454 points)
Fri, February 21, 2020 09:05:14 PM UTC0:00
suspecting it's possible Pete finishes 2nd, especially if there's a lot of older people who voted early

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4320.8682 points)
Fri, February 21, 2020 10:16:09 PM UTC0:00
Pete overperformed in IA and NH, so my prediction is that he will again here:

Sanders 30%
Buttigieg 27%
Warren 18%
Biden 10%
Klobuchar 8%
Steyer 5%

 
D:1989RBH ( 4408.5454 points)
Fri, February 21, 2020 10:28:18 PM UTC0:00
oh yeah, NV is doing the same first/final alignment thing as Iowa. Only nonviable candidates have to pick a viable candidate instead of having a chance to boost somebody up.

So I suspect that if one of Biden or Pete misses in a precinct, the other will benefit. Klobuchar will probably miss in most precincts and go to Joe/Pete despite Klobuchar hating Buttigieg.

There'll probably be a clear first/final alignment gap between Sanders in places where Warren is viable and places where she isn't.

I think the rules difference means that if there's a precinct with one viable candidate, the rest can just become uncommitted.

Anyways, Sanders best margin is probably first alignment. The rest could improve more on final alignment. I suspect the delegate alignment isn't going to be anything too wacky.

So as noted last week, there's a way to have something like three precincts of 9 delegates each where Sanders wins 4, another candidate wins 5, and Sanders wins 12-5-5-5 because the other candidates are splintered.

All in all, hopefully Harry Reid doesn't have to whoop too many people to make Nevada run better than Iowa.

 
I:7114Kyle ( 721.6654 points)
Sat, February 22, 2020 09:54:16 PM UTC0:00
You know, I wasn't alive in 1972, but it will be interesting to watch George McGovern 2.0 lose in a landslide to the most corrupt president since Richard Nixon!

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -285.0314 points)
Sun, February 23, 2020 01:25:22 AM UTC0:00
3 for 3.

Looking pretty good for Bernie so far...

 
D:1989RBH ( 4408.5454 points)
Mon, February 24, 2020 06:35:35 PM UTC0:00
As long as you ignore their Warren number, Data for Progress did well with the other numbers.

Biden didn't finish 3rd, so that's helpful for him. Of course that he finished 2nd in a state where the winner won by double digits.

Buttigieg had over 15% in the alignments but will likely finish below 15% in delegates because of how badly he did in CD1 and CD4.

Of course Warren got to double digits and only shows up on the deviation map for one small county.

Klobuchar apparently concentrated efforts on Reno

Tom Steyer's result here suggests he might have problems beating his polls in SC.

Not sure how many results on the second row are holdouts and how many are data entry errors.