Home About Chat Users Issues Party Candidates Polling Firms Media News Polls Calendar Key Races United States President Senate House Governors International

New User Account
"A historical political resource." 
Email: Password:

  US President - D Primaries
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > U.S. Executive > Popular Vote
OfficePresident
TypeDemocratic Primary Election
Filing Deadline January 01, 2020 - 12:00pm Central
Polls Open February 01, 2020 - 12:00pm Central
Polls Close February 09, 2020 - 12:00pm Central
Term Start January 20, 2021 - 12:00pm
Term End January 20, 2025 - 12:00pm
ContributorM@
Last ModifiedE Pluribus Unum March 20, 2019 01:05pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/08/2016
NameHillary Clinton Votes65,853,516 (48.18%)
Term01/20/2017 - 01/20/2021 Margin2,868,691 (+2.10%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
RaceUS President - Popular Vote 11/03/2020
World Countries Map MAP
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
11/18/2016 03/21/2019
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Joe Biden 3 1 2 --
Bernie Sanders ------1
Beto O'Rourke 1 ------
Tulsi Gabbard 1 1 ----
Kamala Harris 1 ------
Leaning Call: Joe Biden (55.00%)
Weighted Call: Joe Biden (58.18%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

10/05/2016 03/17/2019

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Vice President Joe Biden Sen. Bernie Sanders Sen. Kamala Harris Rep. Beto O'Rourke Sen. Elizabeth Warren Minority Leader Stacey Abrams Sen. Cory Booker
Note: Candidates that appear in italics are speculative and have not officially announced
PartyDemocratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic
Campaign Logo
Predict Avg.10.00% 7.50% 7.00% 9.67% 5.50% 0.00% 7.33%
Cash On Hand $-- $--
Donate
$-- $-- $--
Donate
$-- $--
Website [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website]
Entry Date -- 02/19/2019 01/21/2019 03/14/2019 12/31/2018 -- 02/01/2019
MATCHUP POLLS (23 from 13 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg28.30%-- 19.10%-- 8.57%-- 5.58%-- 5.11%-- 3.56%-- 3.02%--
New!SSRS 
03/14/19-03/17/19
28.00% 2.0 20.00% 6.0 12.00% 8.0 11.00% 2.0 6.00% 3.0 0.00% -- 3.00% 2.0
New!Morning Consult 
03/11/19-03/17/19
35.00% 4.0 27.00% -- 8.00% 2.0 8.00% 1.0 7.00% -- 0.00% -- 4.00% --
HarrisX 
03/09/19-03/10/19
29.19% -- 20.54% -- 5.41% -- 3.78% -- 3.78% -- 0.00% -- 2.70% --
New!Morning Consult 
03/04/19-03/10/19
31.00% -- 27.00% -- 10.00% -- 7.00% -- 7.00% -- 0.00% -- 4.00% --
Monmouth University 
03/01/19-03/04/19
28.00% -- 25.00% -- 10.00% -- 6.00% -- 8.00% -- 0.00% -- 5.00% --
D-CYFOR 
02/22/19-02/23/19
39.00% -- 14.00% -- 8.00% -- 3.00% -- 5.00% -- 0.00% -- 4.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Sen. Amy Klobuchar Andrew Yang Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand Rep. Tulsi Gabbard HUD Secretary Julián Castro Gov. John Hickenlooper Rep. Eric Swalwell
Note: Candidates that appear in italics are speculative and have not officially announced
PartyDemocratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic
Campaign Logo
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $--
Donate
$--
Donate
$--
Donate
$-- $-- $-- $--
Website [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website]
Entry Date 02/10/2019 11/06/2017 01/15/2019 01/11/2019 01/12/2019 03/04/2019 Speculative
MATCHUP POLLS (23 from 13 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg1.65%-- 0.83%-- 0.15%-- 0.15%-- 0.04%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--
New!SSRS 
03/14/19-03/17/19
3.00% -- 0.00% -- 1.00% -- 0.00% -- 1.00% -- 1.00% -- 0.00% --
New!Morning Consult 
03/11/19-03/17/19
2.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 1.00% -- 1.00% -- 1.00% -- 1.00% -- 0.00% --
HarrisX 
03/09/19-03/10/19
2.70% -- 0.54% -- 1.35% -- 0.54% -- 1.35% -- 0.81% -- 0.00% --
New!Morning Consult 
03/04/19-03/10/19
3.00% -- 0.00% -- 1.00% -- 1.00% -- 1.00% -- 1.00% -- 0.00% --
Monmouth University 
03/01/19-03/04/19
3.00% -- 1.00% -- 0.50% -- 0.50% -- 1.00% -- 1.00% -- 0.00% --
D-CYFOR 
02/22/19-02/23/19
2.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 1.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
VIEW 39 MORE CANDIDATES

DROPPED OUT
Sherrod Brown (D)
Mar 07, 2019
Michael Bloomberg (D)
Mar 05, 2019
Jeff Merkley (D)
Mar 05, 2019
Eric Holder (D)
Mar 04, 2019
Eric Garcetti (D)
Jan 29, 2019
Richard Ojeda II (D)
Nov 11, 2018 - Jan 25, 2019
Chris Murphy (D)
Jan 23, 2019
Bob Casey Jr. (D)
Jan 18, 2019
Tom Steyer (D)
Jan 10, 2019
Martin J. O'Malley (D)
Jan 03, 2019
Mark Zuckerberg (D)
 00, 2019
John Kerry (D)
Dec 07, 2018
Deval Patrick (D)
Dec 05, 2018
Michael Avenatti (D)
Dec 04, 2018
Patrick Little (D)
Aug 08, 2018 - Nov 13, 2018
Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente (D)
Jan 09, 2017 - Oct 01, 2018
Jason Kander (D)
Jun 25, 2018
Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson (D)
Apr 00, 2018
Roy Cooper (D)
Mar 29, 2018
Luis V. Gutierrez (D)
Mar 00, 2018
Oprah Winfrey (D)
Feb 22, 2018
Andrew Cuomo (D)
 00, 2018
Howard Schultz (D)
 00, 2018
Nina Turner (D)
 00, 2018
Al Franken (D)
Dec 00, 2017
Bill de Blasio (D)
Aug 23, 2017
Joseph P. Kennedy, III (D)
Jul 18, 2017
Hillary Clinton (D)
Apr 00, 2017
Tim Kaine (D)
Nov 17, 2016
Gavin Newsom (D)
 00, 2016

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Mar 19, 2019 12:00pm News New! Where in the world is Tulsi Gabbard?  Article PA Indy 
Jan 22, 2019 12:00pm News Kamala Harris raises $1.5 million in first 24 hours  Article PA Indy 
Jan 11, 2019 11:00am Event Oprah to interview Beto O'Rourke in Times Square next month  Article RP 
Dec 31, 2018 07:30am Announcement Elizabeth Warren launches 2020 presidential exploratory committee  Article IndyGeorgia 
Dec 12, 2018 09:00am Announcement Julián Castro forms presidential exploratory committee, sets Jan. 12 announcement  Article IndyGeorgia 
Nov 23, 2018 10:35am General Everybody knows these Democrats will probably run for president — so why won't they just say it?  Article IndyGeorgia 

DISCUSSION
[View All
63
Previous Messages]
 
I:7114Kyle ( 655.4450 points)
Tue, March 19, 2019 05:33:57 PM UTC0:00
It is interesting that as more candidates get in and more well known, the percentage of voters supporting Biden/Bernie gets larger. It is early, but perhaps the hot take that "their support is all name recognition" isn't playing out exactly as people expected.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -187.4457 points)
Tue, March 19, 2019 07:11:20 PM UTC0:00
Kyle: It is interesting that as more candidates get in and more well known, the percentage of voters supporting Biden/Bernie gets larger. It is early, but perhaps the hot take that "their support is all name recognition" isn't playing out exactly as people expected.

I'd say that may be a factor, but Bernie has momentum outside of the Presidential Polling when you poll the issues and check how much money he raised with individual donors

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 3888.9563 points)
x3
Tue, March 19, 2019 08:01:27 PM UTC0:00
Normal people are not paying attention to the primaries like we are. About all polls will do in 2019 is weed out a few candidates who can't get above round off error. Us political junkies will just have to wait until January before the polls get more meaningful.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -187.4457 points)
Tue, March 19, 2019 08:41:43 PM UTC0:00
CA Pol Junkie: Normal people are not paying attention to the primaries like we are. About all polls will do in 2019 is weed out a few candidates who can't get above round off error. Us political junkies will just have to wait until January before the polls get more meaningful.

I'm referring to issue polling which is more accurate than early Presidential polling, I'd say June's about the time polling will get better because by that time the field will probably be finalized.

 
D:1989RBH ( 4184.2427 points)
x4
Wed, March 20, 2019 05:17:27 AM UTC0:00
this announcement could rock the 2020 race:


 
D:8509DylanSH99 ( 566.2713 points)
Wed, March 20, 2019 02:12:34 PM UTC0:00
Wow, talk about a blast from the past. Announcement soon from Mondale and Carter as well?

 
D:1RP ( 4480.1450 points)
Wed, March 20, 2019 03:16:20 PM UTC0:00
What people often miss is that Mike is a Kryptonian and his name is actually Grav-El.

 
D:1RP ( 4480.1450 points)
Wed, March 20, 2019 03:22:24 PM UTC0:00
I mean, it should be obvious. Would a human make an ad like this?


 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -187.4457 points)
Wed, March 20, 2019 04:31:15 PM UTC0:00
I'm on board with him running.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -187.4457 points)
Wed, March 20, 2019 07:07:39 PM UTC0:00
I mean, going by the unspoken Exploratory Committee Rule we used for Gillibrand, Messam, and Buttigieg.

Gravel is in

 
I:7114Kyle ( 655.4450 points)
Wed, March 20, 2019 07:18:13 PM UTC0:00
(Trolling here) What is the major difference between Mike Gravel and Bernie Sanders? Both are old, white men ranting about "the people." Neither has significant legislative accomplishments, they are trying to move the party left and de-legitimize moderates.

 
D:1RP ( 4480.1450 points)
Wed, March 20, 2019 07:21:19 PM UTC0:00
Well, sometimes Gravel will just stare at you instead of rant. And he throws rocks into ponds.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -187.4457 points)
Wed, March 20, 2019 08:05:10 PM UTC0:00
Kyle: (Trolling here) What is the major difference between Mike Gravel and Bernie Sanders? Both are old, white men ranting about "the people." Neither has significant legislative accomplishments, they are trying to move the party left and de-legitimize moderates.

[Link]

 
D:6086Jason ( 9169.3652 points)
Wed, March 20, 2019 08:17:06 PM UTC0:00
Back in 2008, Gravel had some oddball right-wing ideas when it came to school vouchers and implementing the Fair Tax. He was a big-government libertarian, if such a thing is possible.

 
D:1RP ( 4480.1450 points)
Wed, March 20, 2019 08:42:27 PM UTC0:00
Gravel also tried to nab the Libertarian nomination but failed.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -187.4457 points)
Wed, March 20, 2019 08:50:49 PM UTC0:00
Jason: Back in 2008, Gravel had some oddball right-wing ideas when it came to school vouchers and implementing the Fair Tax. He was a big-government libertarian, if such a thing is possible.

He's a Libertarian/Progressive mixbreed

 
D:1RP ( 4480.1450 points)
Wed, March 20, 2019 09:18:05 PM UTC0:00
Probably nobody cares, but here is my current ordering of the major candidates:

Would like personally
Buttegieg
Warren
Yang
O'Rourke
Biden
Castro
Inslee
Klobuchar
Harris
Booker
Hickenlooper
Bullock
Gillibrand
Delaney
Bernie
Gabbard

Like + electability concerns
O'Rourke
Biden
Castro
Harris
Buttegieg
Inslee
Hickenlooper
Bullock
Booker
Yang
Klobuchar
Gillibrand
Delaney
Warren
Bernie
Gabbard

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -187.4457 points)
Wed, March 20, 2019 09:41:14 PM UTC0:00
K, that "Like + electability concerns" ranking skews reality so I'll do one opinionated and actual electability.

Personally like:
Bernie
Gabbard
Gravel
Yang
Williamson
Warren
Inslee
Buttigieg
[THE REST]

One's with the best chances to win (Direct Presidential Polling plays only 50% to this list):
Bernie
Warren
O'Rourke
Gillibrand/Gabbard
Booker
Harris
Castro
Inslee
Yang
Klobuchar
Hickenlooper
Delaney
Messam
Williamson
[The other Minor Candidates]

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 3888.9563 points)
Wed, March 20, 2019 10:43:28 PM UTC0:00
I group them differently:
Strong young candidates with personality
O'Rourke
Booker
Harris

Septuagenarians
Biden
Sanders
Warren

Meh
Klobuchar
Hickenlooper
Inslee
Gillibrand

Also-rans / angling for a Cabinet Job
Buttegieg
Bullock
Castro

Just, no...
Gabbard
Gravel


 
D:1RP ( 4480.1450 points)
Wed, March 20, 2019 10:47:37 PM UTC0:00
I pretty much agree with your groupings too (except for maybe Buttegieg who has really impressed me).

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -187.4457 points)
Wed, March 20, 2019 11:04:34 PM UTC0:00
CA Pol Junkie: I group them differently:
Strong young candidates with personality
O'Rourke
Booker
Harris
Septuagenarians
Biden
Sanders
Warren
Meh
Klobuchar
Hickenlooper
Inslee
Gillibrand
Also-rans / angling for a Cabinet Job
Buttegieg
Bullock
Castro
Just, no...
Gabbard
Gravel

Is that just based on your opinions or who you think has the best chances?

 
I:7114Kyle ( 655.4450 points)
Thu, March 21, 2019 12:14:30 AM UTC0:00
RP: Well, sometimes Gravel will just stare at you instead of rant. And he throws rocks into ponds.

Important distinction for sure. But will Bernie throw rocks into ponds once Gravel starts taking away voters? ;)

 
I:7114Kyle ( 655.4450 points)
Thu, March 21, 2019 12:24:34 AM UTC0:00
And while we are ranking, here are my rankings from "center-right, former republican, millenial"

Would Volunteer For/Donate Money:
Biden
Klobuchar
Hickenlooper

Would Vote For Pretty Enthusiastically:
Bullock
Delaney
Harris
Buttegieg

Would Hold My Nose&Vote For
O'Rourke
Castro
Inslee
Booker
Gillibrand

Would Vote 3rd Party/Wouldn't Vote:
Bernie
Gabbard
Warren

(After Trump's latest attacks on McCain, Warren may have moved up. Bernie&Tulsi aren't moving unless Trump legit shoots someone on 5th avenue.)

Also lol that my favorite candidates are mostly in the "meh" category. Seems about right.

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 3888.9563 points)
Thu, March 21, 2019 01:27:14 AM UTC0:00
E Pluribus Unum: Is that just based on your opinions or who you think has the best chances?

Both! Remember my mantra:
The candidate who wins the presidential general election is the candidate who would win a race for Prom King.

The issue differences between Democrats (especially after we account for Congress) are tiny compared to the differences between the Democratic candidate and Trump. Therefore I want the candidate most likely to win and that candidate is the one low information voters want to see on TV for the next 4 years.

 
I:1038PA Indy ( 871.8120 points)
Thu, March 21, 2019 01:43:39 AM UTC0:00
Whoa, Kyle, you’d vote for Harris enthusiastically?

 
I:7114Kyle ( 655.4450 points)
Thu, March 21, 2019 01:48:21 AM UTC0:00
PA Indy: Whoa, Kyle, you’d vote for Harris enthusiastically?

I think that her record lends herself to being a reasonable president. Though she may take hardline stances, I think she will govern as a center-left leader.

Additionally, I think she is a great spokesperson for the country and would serve as a unifier.

But, today I am particularly hostile to the president with his McCain attacks and the primary is relatively early. If she continues a leftward tilt and is increasingly divisive, my enthusiasm would definitely wane.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -187.4457 points)
Thu, March 21, 2019 01:50:29 AM UTC0:00
CA Pol Junkie: Both! Remember my mantra: The candidate who wins the presidential general election is the candidate who would win a race for Prom King.

The issue differences between Democrats (especially after we account for Congress) are tiny compared to the differences between the Democratic candidate and Trump. Therefore I want the candidate most likely to win and that candidate is the one low information voters want to see on TV for the next 4 years.
I don't think that's entirely true, especially now.

PA Indy: Whoa, Kyle, you’d vote for Harris enthusiastically?

Kindof why I wouldn't do that

 
I:1038PA Indy ( 871.8120 points)
Thu, March 21, 2019 02:10:17 AM UTC0:00
Kyle:
I think that her record lends herself to being a reasonable president. Though she may take hardline stances, I think she will govern as a center-left leader.

Additionally, I think she is a great spokesperson for the country and would serve as a unifier.

That's interesting. If I were a registered Dem, I think she or Biden would be my first pic for the same reasons but I come from a center-left spot.

I also have a record of supporting the folk many on either extreme consider meh. Meh folk can do the job and find a way to inspire; exciting extremists are either preachy as hell or incite lynch mobs.

 
R:9757BrentinCO ( 1672.4026 points)
Thu, March 21, 2019 02:38:18 AM UTC0:00


 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 405.7512 points)
Thu, March 21, 2019 07:08:15 AM UTC0:00
Well, sometimes Gravel will just stare at you instead of rant. And he throws rocks into ponds.

Still more impressive than a Kirsten Gillibrand campaign appearance.