Prediction: Neither Trump nor DeSantis will be the nominee. Trump's baggage is getting to be too much and I feel like DeSantis has topped out way too early. I think someone like Tim Scott or even Pence would be more likely to be the nominee because they have room to grow. Thoughts?
Hope you are right, but even with all this baggage I think there are some who will never turn against Trump. But at least there will be Republicans on the debate stage holding him accountable and calling him on the secret files.
But if he does ultimately stumble - Tim Scott would be interesting. Don't sleep on Doug Burgum. He's got dark horse energy.
Luzerne County Historian: Prediction: Neither Trump nor DeSantis will be the nominee. Trump's baggage is getting to be too much and I feel like DeSantis has topped out way too early. I think someone like Tim Scott or even Pence would be more likely to be the nominee because they have room to grow. Thoughts?
Hope you are right, but even with all this baggage I think there are some who will never turn against Trump. But at least there will be Republicans on the debate stage holding him accountable and calling him on the secret files.
But if he does ultimately stumble - Tim Scott would be interesting. Don't sleep on Doug Burgum. He's got dark horse energy.
Prediction: Neither Trump nor DeSantis will be the nominee.
Unless Trump's lifestyle catches up with him in the form of a massive heart attack or stroke, he will be the nominee. He was correct when he stated that he could shoot someone on 5th Avenue in broad daylight and not lose supporters. I agree about DeSantis - he's a classic looks good on paper candidate who fails to hit it off with voters.
But if he does ultimately stumble - Tim Scott would be interesting.
Doesn't he have a positive, optimistic message? That will never fly with GOP primary voters.
Don't sleep on Doug Burgum. He's got dark horse energy.
He's got Burgumentum!
Luzerne County Historian: Prediction: Neither Trump nor DeSantis will be the nominee.
Unless Trump's lifestyle catches up with him in the form of a massive heart attack or stroke, he will be the nominee. He was correct when he stated that he could shoot someone on 5th Avenue in broad daylight and not lose supporters. I agree about DeSantis - he's a classic looks good on paper candidate who fails to hit it off with voters.
BrentinCO: But if he does ultimately stumble - Tim Scott would be interesting.
Doesn't he have a positive, optimistic message? That will never fly with GOP primary voters.
BrentinCO: Don't sleep on Doug Burgum. He's got dark horse energy.
If people thing I'm joking about Burgum, I'm not. He's a pretty impressive guy.
I really do think that if Trump stumbles, he's got the ability to stand out in the field and attract all the elements of the Republican party. Successful businessman, rancher, has rural values, and would make a good President.
If people thing I'm joking about Burgum, I'm not. He's a pretty impressive guy.
I really do think that if Trump stumbles, he's got the ability to stand out in the field and attract all the elements of the Republican party. Successful businessman, rancher, has rural values, and would make a good President.
At this point with the party's mood (and feel free to give the crystal ball emoji):
1. the only thing that will stop Trump from getting the nom is a bad Big Mac
2. in the event of that, the party is still otherwise going to go for the Trumpiest candidate (at this point DeSantis)
At this point with the party's mood (and feel free to give the crystal ball emoji):
1. the only thing that will stop Trump from getting the nom is a bad Big Mac
2. in the event of that, the party is still otherwise going to go for the Trumpiest candidate (at this point DeSantis)
At this point with the party's mood (and feel free to give the crystal ball emoji):
1. the only thing that will stop Trump from getting the nom is a bad Big Mac
2. in the event of that, the party is still otherwise going to go for the Trumpiest candidate (at this point DeSantis)
Given all the animosity between Trump and DeSantis do you really think all that Trump support would just go over to DeSantis? Many Trumpers come out against DeSantis - especially since the AI Ads
Seems to me it would be wide open and the field would have a better chance than DeSantis.
Mr. Matt: At this point with the party's mood (and feel free to give the crystal ball emoji):
1. the only thing that will stop Trump from getting the nom is a bad Big Mac
2. in the event of that, the party is still otherwise going to go for the Trumpiest candidate (at this point DeSantis)
Given all the animosity between Trump and DeSantis do you really think all that Trump support would just go over to DeSantis? Many Trumpers come out against DeSantis - especially since the AI Ads
Seems to me it would be wide open and the field would have a better chance than DeSantis.
Yes, I think that they would shift over to RDS. Ultimately, who is the candidate that shares most of the well-known awful traits of Trump (racism, sexism, fascism, homo/transphobia, owning the libs)? Such supporters aren't going to go over to the kinder, gentler candidates, especially if said candidate has spoken out against DJT (or in the case of Mike Pence, not doing anything to change the count in Congress late on 1/6).
Yes, I think that they would shift over to RDS. Ultimately, who is the candidate that shares most of the well-known awful traits of Trump (racism, sexism, fascism, homo/transphobia, owning the libs)? Such supporters aren't going to go over to the kinder, gentler candidates, especially if said candidate has spoken out against DJT (or in the case of Mike Pence, not doing anything to change the count in Congress late on 1/6).
Kristi Noem's not getting into the race...there may be several reasons for that, but chief among them is that she was always really running to be Trump's running-mate. And running against him is probably not the best way to curry his favor.
Her Veep stock definitely rose, after Kari Lake's pseudo-defeat in the Arizona gubernatorial election.
Otherwise, I would say that Chris Christie and Doug Burgum are the only potential surprises here. The rest of the polling-below-DeSantis GOP candidates appear to be of no consequence (unless maybe Glenn Youngkin does decide to get in.). And Burgum probably isn't either, but I'm not entirely willing to write him off as yet.
Kristi Noem's not getting into the race...there may be several reasons for that, but chief among them is that she was always really running to be Trump's running-mate. And running against him is probably not the best way to curry his favor.
Her Veep stock definitely rose, after Kari Lake's pseudo-defeat in the Arizona gubernatorial election.
Otherwise, I would say that Chris Christie and Doug Burgum are the only potential surprises here. The rest of the polling-below-DeSantis GOP candidates appear to be of no consequence (unless maybe Glenn Youngkin does decide to get in.). And Burgum probably isn't either, but I'm not entirely willing to write him off as yet.
Christie's on a suicide run. There's no way the base is going to vote for a guy whose main schtick is attacking Trump.
I can see Bergum or Scott getting mini bounces, but not anywhere close to the nomination.
I can easily see DeSantis continuing to flame out. But I could also see him reviving if Trump's general election polls start to tank.
If that happens, I think in order of likelihood of getting the nod (if they run) are DeSantis, Youngkin, Haley, Rick Scott, Josh Hawley, Tucker Carlson, MTG and Kari Lake. (Unlike User#7206 I think Lake's defeat helps her with the base wanting to whine about stolen elections.)
I don't think there's any chance of someone who isn't an angry, red-meat throwing, election denying, social issue crusader getting the party nod this election.
Christie's on a suicide run. There's no way the base is going to vote for a guy whose main schtick is attacking Trump.
I can see Bergum or Scott getting mini bounces, but not anywhere close to the nomination.
I can easily see DeSantis continuing to flame out. But I could also see him reviving if Trump's general election polls start to tank.
If that happens, I think in order of likelihood of getting the nod (if they run) are DeSantis, Youngkin, Haley, Rick Scott, Josh Hawley, Tucker Carlson, MTG and Kari Lake. (Unlike Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! I think Lake's defeat helps her with the base wanting to whine about stolen elections.)
I don't think there's any chance of someone who isn't an angry, red-meat throwing, election denying, social issue crusader getting the party nod this election.
DeSantis will not be the nominee, classic example of someone the core conservative base loves, who lasts about 5 minutes. I'm also still not convinced Trump will be the nominee, but in the absence of DeSantis who is it? A Reagan like figure is probably the GOPs best bet, but it isn't 1980 anymore. RP is right, if it isn't Trump, it's the most socially conservative candidate available. I haven't met many GOP primary voters that are all in with Trump. The usual line is "I love Trump, but I like the large field". I don't think that necessarily materializes into Trump losing the primary though. You have a crowded field. DeSantis is underwhelming (strictly from a conservative standpoint), and outside of that Mike Pence is annoying, Burgum is interesting as is Scott but they have no base to work off of. One thing I've learned from politics is a great campaign for ANYTHING starts with a reliable voting bloc and the candidates other than Trump and DeSantis don't have that. And I'd argue there is a chance DeSantis doesn't have a true base either.
DeSantis will not be the nominee, classic example of someone the core conservative base loves, who lasts about 5 minutes. I'm also still not convinced Trump will be the nominee, but in the absence of DeSantis who is it? A Reagan like figure is probably the GOPs best bet, but it isn't 1980 anymore. RP is right, if it isn't Trump, it's the most socially conservative candidate available. I haven't met many GOP primary voters that are all in with Trump. The usual line is "I love Trump, but I like the large field". I don't think that necessarily materializes into Trump losing the primary though. You have a crowded field. DeSantis is underwhelming (strictly from a conservative standpoint), and outside of that Mike Pence is annoying, Burgum is interesting as is Scott but they have no base to work off of. One thing I've learned from politics is a great campaign for ANYTHING starts with a reliable voting bloc and the candidates other than Trump and DeSantis don't have that. And I'd argue there is a chance DeSantis doesn't have a true base either.
Kari Lake still hasn't resolved the election irregularities claimed in her gubernatorial primary victory, so by her own account she may not have even been a legitimate nominee
Kari Lake still hasn't resolved the election irregularities claimed in her gubernatorial primary victory, so by her own account she may not have even been a legitimate nominee
Despite Donald Trump’s multiple indictments, 62% of Republican primary voters say he would “definitely” beat President Biden in a 2024 general-election rematch.
Until that drops below 50%, Trump is the nominee. Probably quite a bit below 50% due to the winner-take-all format of most GOP primaries and the giant split field of candidates.
Despite Donald Trump’s multiple indictments, 62% of Republican primary voters say he would “definitely” beat President Biden in a 2024 general-election rematch.
Until that drops below 50%, Trump is the nominee. Probably quite a bit below 50% due to the winner-take-all format of most GOP primaries and the giant split field of candidates.
I think people are seeing that whatever qualities Trump have/had that got him the nomination, they aren't as easily reproducible as other candidates would like to believe.
I think people are seeing that whatever qualities Trump have/had that got him the nomination, they aren't as easily reproducible as other candidates would like to believe.
Hopefully for Republicans one of these candidates can still get enough of a minority of national votes in strategically important areas to win on a constitutional technicality.
Hopefully for Republicans one of these candidates can still get enough of a minority of national votes in strategically important areas to win on a constitutional technicality.
I'm also surprised we haven't seen a candidate yet that is trying to fully support Trump and run as a replacement in case Soros's woke drag army of Satan succeed in neutralizing Dear Leader.
If a non-Trump candidate wins I think that's how they're going to do it, and the ones who have already come out half campaigning against him (DeSantis, Christie, Pence) have already been pegged as "disloyal" and don't really have a shot at this point.
I'm also surprised we haven't seen a candidate yet that is trying to fully support Trump and run as a replacement in case Soros's woke drag army of Satan succeed in neutralizing Dear Leader.
If a non-Trump candidate wins I think that's how they're going to do it, and the ones who have already come out half campaigning against him (DeSantis, Christie, Pence) have already been pegged as "disloyal" and don't really have a shot at this point.
I'm also surprised we haven't seen a candidate yet that is trying to fully support Trump and run as a replacement in case Soros's woke drag army of Satan succeed in neutralizing Dear Leader.
Vivek Ramaswamy would like a word
Patrick: I'm also surprised we haven't seen a candidate yet that is trying to fully support Trump and run as a replacement in case Soros's woke drag army of Satan succeed in neutralizing Dear Leader.
A new Morning Consult poll finds that in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s federal criminal indictment, his lead in the Republican presidential primary is now the largest to date — more than tripling Ron DeSantis’s support, 59% to 19%. - https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/2024-gop-primary-election-tracker
A new Morning Consult poll finds that in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s federal criminal indictment, his lead in the Republican presidential primary is now the largest to date — more than tripling Ron DeSantis’s support, 59% to 19%. - [Link]
No one is here for the Ranawamy Tsunami
He is surprising. I wonder if that's part of his poll support before people have to really commit - with no political past he's an interesting candidate and has said some things Republican voters of all stripes can agree with.
WSNJ: No one is here for the Ranawamy Tsunami
He is surprising. I wonder if that's part of his poll support before people have to really commit - with no political past he's an interesting candidate and has said some things Republican voters of all stripes can agree with.
Joker:9757
D:8509
x3
LPP:10973
