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  TX US Senate
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Texas > Senate Class I
OfficeSenate
HonorificSenator - Abbr: Sen.
Type General Election
Filing Deadline January 01, 2018 - 12:00pm Central
Polls Open November 06, 2018 - 07:00am Central
Polls Close November 06, 2018 - 07:00pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2019 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2025 - 12:00pm
ContributorAshley
Last ModifiedRBH December 04, 2018 04:18pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/06/2012
NameTed Cruz Votes4,440,137 (56.46%)
Term01/03/2013 - 01/03/2019 Margin1,245,210 (+15.83%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/05/2024
NameTed Cruz Votes5,990,741 (53.05%)
Term01/03/2025 - 01/03/2031 Margin959,492 (+8.50%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Mar 06, 2018 TX US Senate - D Primary
Beto O'Rourke
D 1,042,914
Mar 06, 2018 TX US Senate - R Primary
Ted Cruz
R 1,549,573
Apr 15, 2018 TX US Senate - LBT Convention
Neal Dikeman
LBT 1
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
03/02/2013 11/06/2018
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Ted Cruz 10 13 2 3
Beto O'Rourke 3 1 ----
Tossup 1 ------
Leaning Call: Ted Cruz (90.00%)
Weighted Call: Ted Cruz (97.53%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

04/03/2017 11/05/2018

CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name (I) Sen. Ted Cruz Rep. Beto O'Rourke Neal Dikeman  
PartyRepublican Democratic Libertarian  
Campaign Logo  
Certified Votes 4,260,553 (50.89%) 4,045,632 (48.33%) 65,470 (0.78%)  
Margin0 (0.00%) -214,921 (-2.57%) -4,195,083 (-50.11%)  
Predict Avg.50.21% 47.36% 2.57%  
Cash On Hand 9/30 $11,262,609.00 10/17 $10,336,214.00 $--  
Website [Website] [Campaign Site] [Website]  
Entry Date 00/00/2017 03/31/2017 00/00/2017  
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (39 from 23 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg50.47%-- 44.32%-- -0.31%--  
Trafalgar Group 
11/03/18-11/05/18
52.10% -- 43.20% -- 0.00% --
Change Research 
11/01/18-11/02/18
49.00% -- 49.00% -- 1.00% --
Emerson College 
10/28/18-10/30/18
50.00% 3.0 47.00% 5.0 1.00% --
Quinnipiac University 
10/22/18-10/28/18
51.00% 3.0 46.00% 1.0 0.00% --
University of Texas - Tyler 
10/15/18-10/28/18
47.00% -- 43.40% -- 0.00% --
Dixie Strategies 
10/25/18-10/26/18
52.00% 6.0 42.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements  


EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
10/27/2018 vs Ted Cruz Web Only Ad Attack eng Ted Cruz Ain't Funny  00:00:30 RP 
10/18/2018 vs Ted Cruz TVAd Attack eng Cruz Throws In The Towel, Campaigns With Trump  00:01:00 Poll Vaulter 
10/15/2018 vs Ted Cruz TVAd Attack eng Ted Cruz loves White Castle  00:00:36 RP 
10/08/2018 vs Ted Cruz TVAd Biography eng Is Ted Cruz "Tough As Texas"?  00:00:30 BrentinCO 
10/01/2018 Ted Cruz vs Beto O'Rourke TVAd Issue eng Stand for the Anthem  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
09/04/2018 vs Beto O'Rourke TVAd Biography eng Bulldozer  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
07/26/2018 Beto O'Rourke TVAd Feel Good eng Showing Up  00:01:00 RP 
03/06/2018 Ted Cruz vs Beto O'Rourke Radio Ad Biography eng If You're Gonna Run in Texas, you can't be a Liberal Man  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 

BOOKS
Title Purchase Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Nov 09, 2018 02:00pm Poll Native Texans voted for native Texan Beto O'Rourke, transplants went for Ted Cruz, exit poll shows   Article RP 
Oct 22, 2018 01:00am General Will Donald Trump's Houston rally for Ted Cruz motivate Republicans — or Democrats?  Article IndyGeorgia 
Oct 19, 2018 08:00am News Beto O'Rourke says he'd vote to impeach Trump, given the chance  Article Poll Vaulter 
Oct 17, 2018 06:00pm Video What Happens When 16 Beto O’Rourke and Ted Cruz Supporters Debate in One Room  Article BrentinCO 
Oct 15, 2018 04:00pm News Libertarian Candidate Files Federal Complaint Against Beto O’Rourke and CNN  Article Candidate Information Needed 
Oct 15, 2018 10:00am News Cruz plays the inside game to beat O'Rourke  Article WA Indy 

DISCUSSION
[View All
115
Previous Messages]
 
I:1038WA Indy ( 1821.8380 points)
x4
Tue, October 30, 2018 11:42:45 PM UTC0:00
No one asked.

 
D:9602Old Dominion Democrat ( 1532.0797 points)
Wed, October 31, 2018 12:25:24 AM UTC0:00
Part of what is making this race so competitive is that Cruz is just so utterly unlikable. O'Rourke wouldn't be this close in a challenge to Cornyn even in a Democratic wave year like 2018.

 
LBT:10179Rufus ( 1019.2938 points)
Wed, November 7, 2018 03:12:01 AM UTC0:00
ABC calls for Cruz.

 
I:9518Charlotte Rose ( 246.0513 points)
Wed, November 7, 2018 04:05:54 AM UTC0:00
:(

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 5449.9307 points)
Wed, November 7, 2018 05:23:21 AM UTC0:00
Now Beto is free to run for president.

 
D:10124BLUEDOGS ( 67.9244 points)
x2
Wed, November 7, 2018 03:53:49 PM UTC0:00
O'Rourke finished in politics.

 
I:9626Bojicat ( 822.5096 points)
Wed, November 7, 2018 04:13:24 PM UTC0:00
I don't know, Bluedogs. O'Rourke and Gillum could brush off the still buoyant dust of defeat on their shoulders, stand back upright, and use their newfound celebrity to take a whack at president in 2020. Or, if that fails, 2024.

 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 9685.2871 points)
x2
Wed, November 7, 2018 04:43:12 PM UTC0:00
O’Rouke got 49% of the vote. A loss for sure. But in fairness I’m confident this isn’t the last we’ve heard of him in Texas politics. The Texas Democratic Party has a new playbook as a result of his campaign.

I’ll credit him with at least two house pick-ups due to his turn-out effort.

Not to mention the state house and senate gains we have yet to attribute.


 
D:10124BLUEDOGS ( 67.9244 points)
Wed, November 7, 2018 07:24:00 PM UTC0:00
Cruz's final campaign for statewide office since he's campaignin' for POTUS in 2024 again.

 
D:1989RBH ( 5694.9746 points)
Fri, November 9, 2018 09:03:27 PM UTC0:00
a bunch of other statewide margins finished around R+5 partially due to this... so there's apparently potential for a mass wipeout if Ds get over the hump in TX in a year with a lot of straight ticket voting

 
D:10124BLUEDOGS ( 67.9244 points)
Fri, November 9, 2018 11:18:51 PM UTC0:00
RBH: STV will be like, ya know, gone in a few years.

 
D:1989RBH ( 5694.9746 points)
Sat, November 10, 2018 01:04:33 AM UTC0:00
on checking.. turns out there's no more Texas straight ticket after "September 2020".. [Link]

So, guess the candidates for obscure statewide offices can't just completely coast on autovotes, they'll have to depend on people voting for everything soon.

 
D:1989RBH ( 5694.9746 points)
Wed, December 5, 2018 04:48:08 AM UTC0:00
the change/swing map here really does make it clear which counties are in the Dallas/Houston/Austin orbit.

But you can also spot that Beto improved upon Paul Sadler in Midland/Odessa, Lubbock, Amarillo/Canyon, Abilene, Wichita Falls.

All the other rural counties, on the other hand. Nah. Same as pretty much every other Dem this cycle.

 
D:9642EastTexasDem ( 1194.2174 points)
Wed, December 5, 2018 05:18:43 AM UTC0:00
He did slightly out-perform Wendy Davis' 2014 numbers, although that's not a difficult accomplishment. Michael Li made this chart showing how Beto would have done if he performed as well as Sadler in the rurals or as bad as Davis. He does get closer with the Sadler numbers, but it still would have been a loss.

 
D:1989RBH ( 5694.9746 points)
Wed, December 5, 2018 06:03:49 AM UTC0:00
So, pretty much the quickest scenario for a Beto win would involve either a better showing in the Valley or just a higher turnout there? Something that could have been more realistic if Lupe Valdez was more like Tony Sanchez than Lupe Valdez. I might be a little harsh, but it just seems difficult for somebody running for Governor to be the worst performing candidate on their party's ticket.

Also, not sure if i'll get around to entering the Lt. Governor's map soon, but it looks like Collier was leading the ticket in quite a few rural West TX counties.

The Libertarians got 5%ish for US Senate, US House, Governor, and Lt. Governor in Sherman County (you'll see it on the change map). So, maybe there's a new destination spot for Free State Project people who don't want to live in New Hampshire.

 
D:9642EastTexasDem ( 1194.2174 points)
Mon, December 10, 2018 04:49:51 AM UTC0:00

 
D:1989RBH ( 5694.9746 points)
Mon, December 10, 2018 05:41:09 AM UTC0:00
yeah, they're gonna need to create a Travis County district in the next map to make sure they don't accidentally wipe out several R Congressmen by trying to split Travis between so many districts

 
VMan:10380Politicoomer ( -203.2565 points)
Thu, October 3, 2019 12:33:56 PM UTC0:00
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