Poll Average Details- TX US Senate - 2018-11-06 19:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	Ted Cruz Ted Cruz	Beto O'Rourke Beto O'Rourke	Neal Dikeman Shane Newsom
Trafalgar Group	11/5	X 1.00000		52.1000 - 1.8988 bias	43.2000 - -1.6435 bias
Change Research	11/2	X 0.95000		49.0000 - -1.2913 bias	49.0000 - 1.4957 bias	1.0000 - 1.5239 bias
Emerson College	10/30	X 0.90000		50.0000 - 0.6906 bias	47.0000 - 0.8084 bias	1.0000 - 1.2130 bias
University of Texas - Tyler	10/28	X 0.86667		47.0000 - -0.0832 bias	43.4000 - -1.8493 bias
Quinnipiac University	10/28	X 0.86667		51.0000 - -0.2682 bias	46.0000 - 1.0754 bias
Dixie Strategies	10/26	X 0.83333		52.0000 - 3.6339 bias	42.0000 - -2.3406 bias
University of Texas-Austin	10/21	X 0.75000		51.0000 - -4.2881 bias	45.0000 - -1.6778 bias	2.0000 - 4.2770 bias
GBA Strategies (D)	10/21	X 0.75000		50.0000 - -1.9714 bias	46.0000 - 2.3010 bias	2.0000 - 3.3571 bias
Reuters/Ipsos	10/18	X 0.70000		49.0000 - 0.8563 bias	44.0000 - 3.1158 bias
Tulchin Research	10/14	X 0.63333		49.0000 - -0.6193 bias	45.0000 - 1.7821 bias	3.0000 - 2.3107 bias
SSRS	10/13	X 0.61667		52.0000 - -0.8430 bias	45.0000 - 1.4667 bias
WPA Intelligence (WPAi)	10/13	X 0.61667		52.0000 - 2.8390 bias	43.0000 - -2.2598 bias	4.0000 - 1.8291 bias
Siena Research Institute	10/11	X 0.58333		51.0000 - -0.0165 bias	43.0000 - 0.4840 bias
YouGov	10/5	X 0.48333		50.0000 - 0.0288 bias	44.0000 - 1.4134 bias
Public Policy Polling	9/20	X 0.23333		49.0000 - -0.1800 bias	46.0000 - 1.1680 bias
Vox Populi	9/18	X 0.20000		50.0000 - -0.3032 bias	50.0000 - 2.4096 bias
Chism Strategies (D)	9/12	X 0.10000		49.0000 - 1.2351 bias	45.0000 - -0.4530 bias
Crosswind Media & Public Relations	9/9	X 0.05000		47.0000 - 1.3436 bias	44.0000 - 0.2909 bias
TOTAL				50.198825	44.664882	-0.356457