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"A collaborative political resource." |
La Fayette
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USER DETAILS |
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| Screen Name | La Fayette |
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| Name | Bernhard |
| Location | , , |
| Email | |
| Birthday | March 13, 1989 |
| Affiliation | Democratic |
| First Login | March 26, 2011 04:54am |
| Last Login | May 28, 2022 08:21am |
| Predictions |
Points: 613.0538
Predictions: 790/907 (87.10%)
Points Per: 613.0538/907 (0.68)
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| Messages Posted |
57
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| DISCUSSION |
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| D:8172 | La Fayette ( 613.05 points) | June 12, 2022 02:58pm |
Here are a few takeaway from election night so far:
The turnout is low (about 47/48%).
For Ensemble:
Gerald Darmanin has had a good night.
Jean-Michel Blanquer won't make it to the second round.
Ensemble refuses to choose between NUPES and RN candidates at a global level, and will sort it out in each circonscription.
For NUPES:
The small lead over Ensemble likely won't be enough to win the second round.
In Paris, the duel between NUPES and PS in the 15th circonscription has been won by NUPES.
For the RN:
Marine Le Pen is safe, she's eying on 25 to 30 elected deputies.
For the Republicans:
Not much headlines yet but it seems that one of their leading right-wing figures - Julien Aubert - is in trouble.
For Reconquête:
Eric Zemmour and his only deputy Peltier are not qualified for the second round.
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| D:8172 | La Fayette ( 613.05 points) | June 12, 2022 02:52pm |
Or to put my last sentence in another way, each NUPES candidate entered is entered as NUPES for the election but registered as a party member of his own party and not from NUPES.
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| D:8172 | La Fayette ( 613.05 points) | June 12, 2022 02:50pm |
Hello!
Well personnaly I have had troubles myself to sort it out.
The Interior Minister had initially decided to put all the candidates of the Presidential majority (En Marche, Mouvement Démocrate, Horizons, Agir) under one single banner.
On the other hand, he had chosen not to add the "NUPES" qualification and to distinguish between each parties (France Insoumise, Parti Socialiste, Parti Communiste Français); the NUPES was dissatisfied and went to courts, which ruled that NUPES candidate shall be presented on a single banner. The decision of the Minister of Interior was awkward, since his "ecologist" classification mixed NUPES candidates from EELV, and non-NUPES candidates from the Animalist Party or random ecologist.
So I believe we can put NUPES and Ensemble candidates under a single banner - I had initially distinguished the Ensemble candidates by parties, based on the account of Le Monde - but if you've created the party to have the single Ensemble banner it would be fine.
For Les Républicains and UDI it gets trickier: officially they too have a coalition deal, but the Interior minister counts them separately, and they didn't went to court. So I believe we can let "Les Républicains" or "UDI" stand and put an endorsement.
As far as Les Patriotes or Debout la France are concerned, I have distinguished them by party so far.
It's all the problem of such electoral platforms, which are no real parties, and will be used only once.
If I had to pick I believe the best way to sort things out would probably to have the coalitions in party standings for the general election and to use the party for the circonscription level, because in the end, every party will probably try to have its own group at the National Assembly and the electoral alliances will in all likelihood soon be meaningless. Which means that I have to change the NUPES candidates I entered to their party (it won't be hard, I had made sure that the candidates have their own party appearing).
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| D:8172 | La Fayette ( 613.05 points) | June 11, 2022 04:08pm |
I have mistakenly created this candidate, (accents that I had not seen). Can someone please delete it?
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| D:8172 | La Fayette ( 613.05 points) | June 11, 2022 12:49pm |
This race has been covered by media because Stanislas Rigault, one of Zemmour's protégés, is running with Marion Maréchal as his running mate.
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| D:8172 | La Fayette ( 613.05 points) | June 11, 2022 09:56am |
For this race two candidates with the name Sandrine Rousseau are officially candidates.
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| D:8172 | La Fayette ( 613.05 points) | March 16, 2022 02:48pm |
Hello everyone! Thank you for your kind wishes!
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| D:8172 | La Fayette ( 613.05 points) | February 27, 2022 04:45pm |
On the endorsement side, I have to say that I was surprized that Jean-Pierre Chevènement decided to endorse Emmanuel Macron, given their antagonistic positions on the European Union.
On the Marine Le Pen / Eric Zemmour feud, there have been many rumors that Marion Maréchal, Le Pen's niece, might be endorsing Zemmour in the end. So far she has refused to support either of the candidates.
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| D:8172 | La Fayette ( 613.05 points) | February 27, 2022 04:32pm |
IndyGeorgia: Would Bayrou give those signatures to Le Pen or Zemmour in order to split their vote, or is this a principled position against the signature requirement?
It is some kind of middle of the road position. He is not against the signature requirement, but thinks that it shouldn't lead to remove candidates who are polling above 10% of the votes (until last week Mélenchon was also having more trouble than usual to get his signatures).
He said that he was giving his own signature to Le Pen, not as an endorsement, but as a guarantee for a democratic vote, and since she was having more trouble than Zemmour (she baiscally has 414 signatures and Zemmour 415) he picked her.
Poutou criticized Bayrou sharply about securing signatures only for candidates who are polling high, saying that it would reduce an already small field of potential signatures.
Technically, there are about 36 000 elected officials who could give their signatures, but last time only 12 000 did. Most are mayors of small towns, who do not want to face trouble for signing for one or another candidate.
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| D:8172 | La Fayette ( 613.05 points) | February 27, 2022 07:38am |
La Fayette: Here is a quick link to show which candidate already got his 500 signatures from elected officials to run for President, and which do not, so far.
[Link]
Only Valérie Pécresse, Emmanuel Macron and Anne Hidalgo reached the required number so far.
It is very likely that Nathalie Arthaud, Jean Lassalle and Fabien Roussel will be added to the list next week.
The candidate who is in most trouble so far is Christiane Taubira, with only 47 signatures so far. Even if her decision to jump into the race came late, it's a weak start, and Hidalgo is said to be actively trying to keep her off ballot.
Le Pen and Mélenchon, who got their signatures easily last time, are having a harder time, since the communists are endorsing Roussel and Le Pen is sharing some of the officials with Eric Zemmour - and with Nicolas Dupont-Aignan. But it is rather unlikely that any of them will miss 500 signatures requirement. Whether Poutou will make it is unclear, since he's competing with a spoil candidate of the same party, Anasse Kazib. Both have more signatures so far than Taubira though.
Since last time, Nathalie Arthaud, Jean Lassalle, and Fabien Roussel easily earned their 500 signatures. Yannick Jadot did so too, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon also garnered enough support.
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan is not far away to get them too. Marine Le Pen and Eric Zemmour still have troubles, but François Bayrou has convinced nearly 300 mayors to give their signatures to candidate who are polling above 10% of the votes, so they will most likely have them in the end.
Poutou is in trouble, he has only 243 signatures needed, with only one week to go. Taubira's situation is even worse, and she's no longer supported by the radical party of the left.
I thought Asselineau would have more signatures, but after a quick start, he has failed to get more than 247 signatures. Hélène Thouy has not even 100 signatures for now.
For what it's worth (not much) Pécresse has now the most signatures (2271), ahead of Macron (1544) and Hidalgo (1226).
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| D:8172 | La Fayette ( 613.05 points) | February 13, 2022 12:50pm |
For the remaining candidates, Asselineau is rather likely to get the 500 signatures again, being rather lonely on his Frexit platform this time.
Hélène Thouy has only 56 signatures for now.
Yannick Jadot has already 325 signatures and will make it, if not next week, probably still in february.
Philippot has only 1 signature so far and is not gaining traction in any way.
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| D:8172 | La Fayette ( 613.05 points) | February 13, 2022 12:45pm |
Here is a quick link to show which candidate already got his 500 signatures from elected officials to run for President, and which do not, so far.
[Link]
Only Valérie Pécresse, Emmanuel Macron and Anne Hidalgo reached the required number so far.
It is very likely that Nathalie Arthaud, Jean Lassalle and Fabien Roussel will be added to the list next week.
The candidate who is in most trouble so far is Christiane Taubira, with only 47 signatures so far. Even if her decision to jump into the race came late, it's a weak start, and Hidalgo is said to be actively trying to keep her off ballot.
Le Pen and Mélenchon, who got their signatures easily last time, are having a harder time, since the communists are endorsing Roussel and Le Pen is sharing some of the officials with Eric Zemmour - and with Nicolas Dupont-Aignan. But it is rather unlikely that any of them will miss 500 signatures requirement. Whether Poutou will make it is unclear, since he's competing with a spoil candidate of the same party, Anasse Kazib. Both have more signatures so far than Taubira though.
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| D:8172 | La Fayette ( 613.05 points) | May 26, 2021 08:52am |
Thank you!
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| D:8172 | La Fayette ( 613.05 points) | May 26, 2021 08:30am |
Hello. I'm sorry but I added the same candidate (Victor Pailhac) twice. Can someone please delete him? My apologies for the mistake.
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| D:8172 | La Fayette ( 613.05 points) | May 20, 2021 09:49am |
Hello. Yes I'm fine thank you! I hope that everything's fine for you too!
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| D:8172 | La Fayette ( 613.05 points) | April 28, 2020 04:14pm |
Thank you very much for your answers and thank you both for your work - you're doing a lot more than I ever did or will be able to do for this site.
As for Ligue 1, I was not really surprised, even if I would have loved that the season could end, even with a delay. What worries me much more is how the government will handle the end of the lockdown, because so far it's kind of unclear.
I hope that everyone here is well and that we'll get over this Covid 19 mess soon.
When it comes to the Committee of Public Safety, I think, considering both of your answers that I will add the results of the election to the Presidency of the Republic container, since it was the closest to a strong executive power and because republicans in France had a long tradition of opposing a unique holder of the executive power, supporting rather collegial power instead (things changed in the 1870s only).
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| D:8172 | La Fayette ( 613.05 points) | April 28, 2020 06:35am |
Hello everybody.
I've found interesting data on elections that happened during the French Revolution, but I'm puzzled about how to put it on the site.
Those elections are about the "Committee of Public Safety" where people like Robespierre and Danton were elected (not at the same time). However, I don't know where it would be better to put it:
- since it's a committee so it could be part of the National Assembly datas, but its purpose was to handle executive matters at a time where the distinction Prime minister / President made no sense in France;
- furthermore, there were also an executive council, which lasted until 1794 (the committee of public safety lasted a year longer though), however, each of his minister was elected separately and could be put rather in the minister sections and a committee of General security, but its influence was less important.
Therefore I would rather go tu put those results with the presidency, but I'm really not sure that it is the best option. Any clue?
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| D:8172 | La Fayette ( 613.05 points) | March 01, 2017 03:51pm |
Fillon has the required number of mayoral signatures (500 at least) to run, according to the constitutional council. Other updates will arriveon March 3rd, March 7th, March 10th, March 14th and March 18th. (The last day to send them to the Consitutional council will be March 17th. [Link]
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| D:8172 | La Fayette ( 613.05 points) | December 11, 2015 04:57am |
I think very dark blue like the austrian FPÖ would be fitting since its the color that they're using themselve. I believe it's purely political from the Figaro. The PS color is pink on most maps, and The Republicans are blue, so the Figaro is trying to show that the FN is as close to the Left as to the right. Le Monde is using deep blue to show that it is closer to the right.
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| D:8172 | La Fayette ( 613.05 points) | December 09, 2015 06:17am |
The PS has withdrawn its support to Jean-Pierre Masseret after his refusal to withdraw in favor of Philippe Richert. [Link]
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| D:8172 | La Fayette ( 613.05 points) | December 09, 2015 06:04am |
Voters from the Republican Popular Union, who wants to leave NATO and the EU, will probably vote for Bay. Voters from Arise the Republic (which has yet become Arise France) will split, since some are closer to the FN than to a centrist like Hervé Morin. I believe Nicolas Mayer-Rossignol will win here in the end. He can hope to attract the communist and the green vote, as well as New Deal voters. Morin will have a tough time since he has to get some non-voters to join him in the second ballot to come through.
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| D:8172 | La Fayette ( 613.05 points) | December 01, 2015 05:53am |
I made a mistake.
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| D:8172 | La Fayette ( 613.05 points) | December 01, 2015 05:52am |
Can someone move this election
[Link] in this container?
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| D:8172 | La Fayette ( 613.05 points) | September 25, 2015 11:15am |
I suspect the next one to drop out might be Gilmore, who has really no support at all, and perhaps Jindal, whose campaign is not catching fire. Santorum is kinda used to single digits in pollings, he'll probably stick until Iowa, since he won there last time.
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| D:8172 | La Fayette ( 613.05 points) | September 21, 2015 09:29am |
0%. Ouch. Is Scott Walker the next to drop out of the contest?
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