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"A comprehensive, collaborative elections resource."
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NV US President
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| Parents |
> United States > Nevada > President
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| Parent Race | US President - Popular Vote |
| Office | President |
| Honorific | President - Abbr: President |
| Type | General Election |
| Filing Deadline | --- |
| Polls Open | November 03, 2020 - 09:00am Central |
| Polls Close | November 03, 2020 - 09:00pm Central |
| Term Start | January 20, 2021 - 12:00pm |
| Term End | January 20, 2025 - 12:00pm |
| Contributor | RP |
| Last Modified | NCdem April 24, 2024 11:36am |
| Data Sources | [Link] |
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| DISCUSSION |
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| [View All 22 Previous Messages] |
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 D:1 | RP ( 5639.5112 points)
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Fri, February 21, 2020 10:50:03 PM UTC0:00
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I don't think MN is moving the GOP's way. The rural areas are about maxed out and the suburbs are moving blue (much faster than WI).
I don't think MN is moving the GOP's way. The rural areas are about maxed out and the suburbs are moving blue (much faster than WI).
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It's also hard to argue that WI is moving towards the direction of Ohio when Democrats swept every statewide office and reelected Baldwin by double digits. Trump winning the state by a narrow margin does not a political realignment make.
It's also hard to argue that WI is moving towards the direction of Ohio when Democrats swept every statewide office and reelected Baldwin by double digits. Trump winning the state by a narrow margin does not a political realignment make.
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| D:2109 | Ashley ( 5529.6611 points)
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Sat, February 22, 2020 09:34:30 PM UTC0:00
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Nevada polling is not particularly accurate though..
Nevada polling has a long and documented history of underestimating support from casino workers working wildly unpredictable shifts (read: most of them), so any numbers that look encouraging for Trump here probably aren’t quite as rosy as they seem. Could just be a little adopted-home state bias talking here, but I don’t see it flipping, though there is a small outside chance.
Rural Nevada is just as conservative as it’s ever been and Reno is still purple, but Las Vegas’ demographics aren’t moving in the GOP’s favor, even if it isn’t quite the boomtown it was earlier in this century and probably never will be again.
RBH: Nevada polling is not particularly accurate though..
Nevada polling has a long and documented history of underestimating support from casino workers working wildly unpredictable shifts (read: most of them), so any numbers that look encouraging for Trump here probably aren’t quite as rosy as they seem. Could just be a little adopted-home state bias talking here, but I don’t see it flipping, though there is a small outside chance.
Rural Nevada is just as conservative as it’s ever been and Reno is still purple, but Las Vegas’ demographics aren’t moving in the GOP’s favor, even if it isn’t quite the boomtown it was earlier in this century and probably never will be again.
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| R:10345 | Bensq1 ( 64.3407 points)
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Sat, July 25, 2020 04:46:10 PM UTC0:00
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Lean R to me because D poll shows Trump up by 2
Lean R to me because D poll shows Trump up by 2
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No one was looking to gamble.
No one was looking to gamble.
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| D:1989 | RBH ( 5694.9746 points)
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Fri, September 11, 2020 08:52:30 PM UTC0:00
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we might get a Nevada poll without a monstrous bias adjustment soon
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1304505468686041088
we might get a Nevada poll without a monstrous bias adjustment soon
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| D:1989 | RBH ( 5694.9746 points)
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Sat, September 12, 2020 09:47:43 PM UTC0:00
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Biden being +4 in Nevada is actually encouraging compared to the recent track record of Dems outperforming polls in Nevada.
Biden being +4 in Nevada is actually encouraging compared to the recent track record of Dems outperforming polls in Nevada.
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| I:6738 | IndyGeorgia ( 4881.1772 points)
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Sat, September 12, 2020 10:01:17 PM UTC0:00
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Isn't that due to the lack of precision by pollsters with polling Hispanic voters? If the reported Biden weakness with Hispanic voters is true, how much of that rule of thumb is blunted?
Isn't that due to the lack of precision by pollsters with polling Hispanic voters? If the reported Biden weakness with Hispanic voters is true, how much of that rule of thumb is blunted?
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| D:1989 | RBH ( 5694.9746 points)
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Sun, September 13, 2020 09:29:04 PM UTC0:00
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Nevada is a really transient state even outside of Hispanics, so polling problems with Hispanics is combined with voter files that don't poll new arrivals
Nevada is a really transient state even outside of Hispanics, so polling problems with Hispanics is combined with voter files that don't poll new arrivals
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| I:6738 | IndyGeorgia ( 4881.1772 points)
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Sun, September 13, 2020 09:42:21 PM UTC0:00
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That's true; good point.
That's true; good point.
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| D:7 | CA Pol Junkie ( 5449.9307 points)
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Thu, October 22, 2020 02:11:26 AM UTC0:00
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Jon Ralston's early voting blog is back. So far, it's good news for Biden but it is still early. https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3
Jon Ralston's early voting blog is back. So far, it's good news for Biden but it is still early. [Link]
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| D:7 | CA Pol Junkie ( 5449.9307 points)
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Mon, November 2, 2020 03:51:59 AM UTC0:00
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Jon Ralston's verdict is in, and Biden is in a stronger position than Clinton was when she won. https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3
If you look at the math below, it already was very difficult for Trump. Now he has less of a chance to win than he does of getting a gaming license in Nevada.
Jon Ralston's verdict is in, and Biden is in a stronger position than Clinton was when she won. [Link]
If you look at the math below, it already was very difficult for Trump. Now he has less of a chance to win than he does of getting a gaming license in Nevada.
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 Joker:9757 | BrentinCO ( 9685.2871 points)
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Sun, December 27, 2020 09:28:08 PM UTC0:00
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https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1343004803316768768?s=20
?s=20
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