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  MT US Senate
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Montana > Senate Class II
OfficeSenate
Type General Election
Filing Deadline March 01, 2020 - 05:00pm Central
Polls Open November 03, 2020 - 08:00am Central
Polls Close November 03, 2020 - 09:00pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2021 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2027 - 12:00pm
ContributorRBH
Last ModifiedRBH December 01, 2020 12:42pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/04/2014
NameSteve Daines Votes213,709 (57.79%)
Term01/03/2015 - 01/03/2021 Margin65,525 (+17.72%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Jun 02, 2020 MT US Senate - D Primary
Steve Bullock
D 151,854
Jun 02, 2020 MT US Senate - R Primary
Steve Daines
R 219,205
Jun 02, 2020 MT US Senate - G Primary
Wendie Fredrickson
G 759
MAP

Curve
Embed Code Data
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
11/28/2018 11/03/2020
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Steve Daines 16 5 --1
Steve Bullock 7 ------
Tossup 1 ------
Leaning Call: Steve Daines (78.95%)
Weighted Call: Steve Daines (84.66%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

03/12/2020 10/27/2020

CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name (I) Sen. Steve Daines Gov. Steve Bullock  
PartyRepublican Democratic  
Campaign Logo  
Certified Votes 333,174 (55.01%) 272,463 (44.99%)  
Margin0 (0.00%) -60,711 (-10.02%)  
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand 6/17 $0.00 10/14 $1,751,153.50  
Website [Website] [Website]  
Entry Date 03/09/2020 03/09/2020  
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (19 from 12 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg49.09%-- 45.23%--  
Public Policy Polling 
10/26/20-10/27/20
47.00% 1.0 48.00% --
Montana State University Billings 
10/19/20-10/24/20
47.00% -- 48.00% --
Siena Research Institute 
10/18/20-10/20/20
49.00% 4.0 46.00% 2.0
Strategies 360 
10/15/20-10/20/20
48.00% -- 47.00% --
RMG Research 
10/15/20-10/18/20
49.00% -- 47.00% --
Public Policy Polling 
10/09/20-10/10/20
48.00% 4.0 48.00% 2.0
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements  

DROPPED OUT - NO VOTES
Wendie Fredrickson (G)
Mar 01, 2020 - Aug 19, 2020
Susan Good Geise (LBT)
Mar 01, 2020 - May 00, 2020

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
10/07/2020 Steve Bullock TVAd Endorsement eng Bob Brown  00:00:30 RP 
07/29/2020 Steve Bullock TVAd Endorsement eng Strong  00:00:30 RP 
06/24/2020 Steve Bullock TVAd Feel Good eng Strong  00:00:30 RP 
03/09/2020 Steve Daines TVAd Attack eng Stand Strong  00:00:30 RP 

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Jun 20, 2020 11:05pm News Bullock, Daines prepare for epic Senate battle – by aiming for the center  Article BrentinCO 
Mar 24, 2020 11:00pm General State GOP spent $100k to qualify Montana Green Party for the ballot  Article IndyGeorgia 

DISCUSSION
[View All
16
Previous Messages]
 
D:10124BLUEDOGS ( 68.1126 points)
x3
Wed, November 28, 2018 11:36:28 PM UTC0:00
Bullock might run for United States Senator.

 
D:10409Tar Heel Conservative Dem ( 0.0000 points)
Wed, March 11, 2020 11:51:17 PM UTC0:00
I think Bullock will keep it close, but not enough to pull off a win in November.

Daines holds on 53% to 46%.

 
D:10229State Legislatures Big Fan ( 47.3658 points)
Sat, March 21, 2020 04:56:25 AM UTC0:00
Knowing Montana's election history, I think election will be decided by a plurality, not majority. Greens will probably take some from the Dems and Libertarians will take PLENTY from Reps, they got a good candidate in Good Geise, who has an extensive history with state GOP.

 
LBT:10179Rufus ( 1049.4359 points)
Sat, March 21, 2020 08:37:37 AM UTC0:00
Need to see how committed to the platform Good Geise is, but getting the state LP good press so far. She strikes me more as a would-be indy but wouldn't otherwise be able to make the ballot. Not sure if I will be back in MT by election day but would come down to her or Bullock for me.

 
LBT:10179Rufus ( 1049.4359 points)
Sun, May 31, 2020 01:03:30 AM UTC0:00
Good Geise is dropping due to COVID issues. Message posted on her site: [Link]

Not immediately clear what the legality is as far as replacing her name and whatnot.

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 4072.6860 points)
Thu, July 2, 2020 05:12:09 AM UTC0:00

 
R:10271New Jersey Politico ( 241.9174 points)
Wed, July 15, 2020 08:03:03 PM UTC0:00
Is Bullock pro-choice. Wondering if Daines will make that an issue, it seems it wouldn't stick since Jon Tester is pro-choice.

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 3122.6245 points)
Wed, July 15, 2020 08:16:07 PM UTC0:00
Bullock is pro-choice. During the 2017 state legislative session, he vetoed two bills (SB 282, SB 329) aimed at restricting late-term abortions. Bullock received a 100% rating from NARAL in 2013 and was endorsed by Planned Parenthood Advocates of Montana in his 2016 reelection bid.
[Link]

Montana Gov. Steve Bullock (D), who last week entered the 2020 Democratic presidential race, told CNN on Sunday that he believes that life begins when a fetus is able to survive outside the womb, but added that women should be able to decide whether to receive abortions for themselves.

"Ultimately, the Supreme Court settled this 45 years ago," he said on CNN's "State of the Union," referring to the 1973 Roe vs. Wade decision. "It's not my decision to be making a decision that a woman needs to make in consultation with her doctor, her family, her faith."

"I would say that life begins at viability, but either way it's not up to people like me to be making these decisions," he added. "It's not what I think, it's what does an individual woman need to do with her body and with her health care."
[Link]

 
R:10271New Jersey Politico ( 241.9174 points)
Thu, July 16, 2020 01:44:57 AM UTC0:00
Doesn't seem to be an issue so far among voters.

 
LBT:10808NJLBT ( 42.2805 points)
x2
Mon, October 12, 2020 11:23:49 PM UTC0:00
There is no way Bullock wins after his court packing comment.

 
I:7114Kyle ( 721.6654 points)
x2
Tue, October 13, 2020 12:35:00 AM UTC0:00
NJLBT: There is no way Bullock wins after his court packing comment.

I think you overrate the importance of esoteric procedural and institutional questions to voters.

Republicans seem to think that potential court packing is their saving grace in the election, but there is no empirical evidence to suggest that it will really change votes.

 
D:2109AJ ( 5274.8340 points)
x3
Tue, October 13, 2020 08:38:44 AM UTC0:00
If Daines wins it'll be because Montana is a red state, not because its voters are all budding parliamentarians.

 
R:10271New Jersey Politico ( 241.9174 points)
Wed, October 14, 2020 01:46:42 PM UTC0:00
AJ: If Daines wins it'll be because Montana is a red state, not because its voters are all budding parliamentarians.

I would agree there, but there is no way Daines doesn't put out an ad saying that Bullock supports packing the court with "Liberal Justices" and that actually hurts Daines.

 
D:1RP ( 5283.2700 points)
Wed, October 14, 2020 03:09:50 PM UTC0:00
Hurts Daines?

 
R:10271New Jersey Politico ( 241.9174 points)
Wed, October 14, 2020 03:24:28 PM UTC0:00
RP: Hurts Daines?

Bullock, whoops.

 
D:2109AJ ( 5274.8340 points)
Thu, October 15, 2020 12:58:10 AM UTC0:00
RP: Hurts Daines?

I'm having flashbacks to Liddy Dole's "I DON'T BELIEVE IN GOD!" ad hurting Liddy Dole.