Poll Average Details- MT US Senate - 2020-11-03 21:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Steve Daines Daniel R. LarsonSteve Bullock Steve Bullock
Public Policy Polling10/27X 1.00000   47.0000 - 0.0973 bias 48.0000 - 0.9088 bias
Montana State University Billings10/24X 0.95000   47.0000 - -0.3900 bias 48.0000 - -0.0206 bias
Siena Research Institute10/20X 0.88333   49.0000 - 0.9493 bias 46.0000 - -0.5836 bias
Strategies 36010/20X 0.88333   48.0000 - 1.7559 bias 47.0000 - 0.7229 bias
RMG Research10/18X 0.85000   49.0000 - bias 47.0000 - bias
Emerson College10/7X 0.66667   51.8000 - 0.7826 bias 42.7000 - 0.7363 bias
Data for Progress10/5X 0.63333   47.0000 - bias 48.0000 - bias
Montana State University Bozeman10/2X 0.58333   47.0000 - 1.0322 bias 49.0000 - -0.9018 bias
Fabrizio Ward and Hart Research9/5X 0.13333   50.0000 - bias 47.0000 - bias
TOTAL 47.715406 46.851581