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  ME US Senate
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Maine > Senate Class II
OfficeSenate
Type General Election
Filing Deadline 00, 2020 - 12:00pm Central
Polls Open November 03, 2020 - 05:00am Central
Polls Close November 03, 2020 - 07:00pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2021 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2027 - 12:00pm
Turnout 77.04% Registered 61.67% Total Population
ContributorIndyGeorgia
Last ModifiedRBH November 24, 2020 01:37pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/04/2014
NameSusan Collins Votes413,495 (68.46%)
Term01/03/2015 - 01/03/2021 Margin223,251 (+36.96%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Jul 14, 2020 ME US Senate - D Primary
Sara Gideon
D 162,681
Jul 14, 2020 ME US Senate - R Primary
Susan Collins
R 88,448
MAP

Curve
Embed Code Data
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
11/28/2018 11/03/2020
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Sara Gideon 23 6 2 --
Susan Collins 4 ----5
Tossup 3 ------
Leaning Call: Sara Gideon (60.29%)
Weighted Call: Sara Gideon (88.09%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

03/04/2019 11/02/2020

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name (I) Chairman Susan Margaret Collins St. Rep. Sara I. Gideon Lisa Savage Max Patrick Linn (W) Write-In (W) Tiffany Bond (W) Ian Engelman
PartyRepublican Democratic Independent Independent Nonpartisan Independent Independent
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes417,645 (50.98%) 347,223 (42.39%) 40,579 (4.95%) 13,508 (1.65%) 228 (0.03%) 0 (0.00%) 0 (0.00%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -70,422 (-8.60%) -377,066 (-46.03%) -404,137 (-49.33%) -417,417 (-50.96%) -417,645 (-50.98%) -417,645 (-50.98%)
Predict Avg.48.91% 45.19% 1.67% 0.80% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $-- 3/31 $4,649,182.50 $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
Website [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website]
Entry Date 12/18/2019 06/24/2019 00/00/2020 06/16/2020 00/00/2020 00/00/2020 00/00/2020
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (27 from 18 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg43.26%-- 45.79%-- 3.85%-- 0.72%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--
Change Research 
10/29/20-11/02/20
42.00% -- 46.00% -- 7.00% -- 2.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Emerson College 
10/29/20-10/31/20
46.00% -- 48.00% -- 5.00% -- 1.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Survey USA 
10/23/20-10/27/20
45.00% -- 46.00% -- 4.00% -- 1.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Colby College 
10/21/20-10/25/20
43.40% -- 46.60% -- 4.70% -- 1.70% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Pan Atlantic SMS 
10/02/20-10/06/20
39.80% 11.4 46.90% 17.8 5.00% -- 2.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Critical Insights 
09/25/20-10/04/20
43.00% 8.0 44.00% 1.0 2.00% 3.0 1.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name (W) Doug Fogg  
PartyIndependent  
Campaign Logo  
Certified Votes0 (0.00%)  
Margin-417,645 (-50.98%)  
Predict Avg.0.00%  
Cash On Hand $--  
Website  
Entry Date 00/00/2020  
MATCHUP POLLS (27 from 18 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg0.00%--  
Change Research 
10/29/20-11/02/20
0.00% --
Emerson College 
10/29/20-10/31/20
0.00% --
Survey USA 
10/23/20-10/27/20
0.00% --
Colby College 
10/21/20-10/25/20
0.00% --
Pan Atlantic SMS 
10/02/20-10/06/20
0.00% --
Critical Insights 
09/25/20-10/04/20
0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 


EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
09/11/2020 Max Linn Event Video Mixed eng Max Linn goes off script in Maine's Senatorial Debate with Susan Collins and Sara Gideon  00:01:45 data 
09/09/2020 Susan Collins TVAd Endorsement eng Lieberman  00:00:30 RP 
09/04/2020 Lisa Savage TVAd Issue eng Lisa for Maine: You Are Not Alone - Black Lives Matter  00:00:58 data 
08/03/2020 Max Linn vs Susan Collins TVAd Biography eng It's Official! Max Linn makes his decision on running for United States Senate for Maine.  00:10:25 data 
07/30/2020 Susan Collins TVAd Defend eng Character  00:01:00 RP 
07/30/2020 Susan Collins vs Sara Gideon TVAd Defend eng Wayne  00:00:30 RP 
07/29/2020 vs Susan Collins TVAd Attack eng Trump Stooge  00:01:00 RP 
07/24/2020 Susan Collins TVAd Issue eng Earned  00:01:00 RP 
07/20/2020 Susan Collins vs Sara Gideon TVAd Contrast eng Showing Up  00:00:30 RP 
07/16/2020 vs Sara Gideon Web Only Ad Attack eng Maine's Senate seat is #NotForSale  00:00:30 RP 
07/13/2020 Susan Collins vs Sara Gideon TVAd Contrast eng Does Another  00:00:30 RP 
07/13/2020 Susan Collins TVAd Issue eng Paula  00:00:30 RP 
02/16/2020 Lisa Savage TVAd Biography eng Lisa Savage For US Senate  00:04:30 data 
10/24/2019 Sara Gideon TVAd Feel Good eng Independence  00:00:30 RP 
10/17/2019 Sara Gideon TVAd Biography eng Maine First  00:01:02 RP 
08/12/2019 vs Susan Collins TVAd Attack eng Three Generations  00:00:30 RP 

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor

DISCUSSION
[View All
57
Previous Messages]
 
D:7918Labour Dem ( 152.8636 points)
Fri, July 26, 2019 02:26:49 AM UTC0:00
I hardly think her vote for Kavanaugh is going away. Besides that she has demonstrated that she's not really a moderate and that has shown in her declining approval.

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Fri, July 26, 2019 11:53:34 PM UTC0:00
E Pluribus Unum: Do I ad David Gibson in a Primary for the Maine Green Independent Party or do I just add him here?

If there's little to no chance of a primary challenger you can add him here. Unless Maine reports vote totals for uncontested races.

 
D:9583Caprice ( 52.6125 points)
Sat, July 27, 2019 02:02:04 AM UTC0:00
RP: <q 9951="">Do I ad David Gibson in a Primary for the Maine Green Independent Party or do I just add him here?

If there's little to no chance of a primary challenger you can add him here. Unless Maine reports vote totals for uncontested races.
Maine reports vote totals for uncontested races.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -300.4630 points)
Sun, July 28, 2019 02:28:06 AM UTC0:00
So I add him in a Uncontested Primary?

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Sun, July 28, 2019 01:21:05 PM UTC0:00
As the only person in a normal green primary, yes. And add Green Primary Winner here.

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Tue, October 15, 2019 05:52:16 PM UTC0:00
PPP Collins: 41%, Generic Dem: 44%

 
D:9602Old Dominion Democrat ( 1517.5498 points)
Tue, October 15, 2019 08:33:12 PM UTC0:00
Gideon also reporting today raising $3.2 million for Q3.

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Tue, October 15, 2019 08:49:35 PM UTC0:00
And then there's the anti-Collins fund raised during the Kavanaugh thing which I think is around $4 mil.

 
D:9602Old Dominion Democrat ( 1517.5498 points)
Tue, October 15, 2019 09:04:10 PM UTC0:00
Is that money controlled by a PAC? Or some other entity? How will that fund be distributed?

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Tue, October 15, 2019 10:16:23 PM UTC0:00
ActBlue has it. [Link]

 
R:9757BrentinCO ( 3307.2993 points)
Tue, October 15, 2019 11:06:56 PM UTC0:00
Good thing she won't be running against generic Democrat.

However, I have a strong feeling Collins won't run for reelection. The polls posted today in R Primary show she isn't that popular among Maine Republican voters either in head to head match-ups.

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Fri, March 13, 2020 02:45:16 PM UTC0:00

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Thu, April 16, 2020 06:00:56 PM UTC0:00
Gideon outraised Collins $7.1 million to $2.4 million in Q1. [Link]

 
R:10538Southern_Moderate2 ( 67.4474 points)
x3
Thu, April 16, 2020 06:17:25 PM UTC0:00
I really feel that Collins is being unfairly attacked. Maine isn't a massively blue state, and her ideology score is almost exactly down the middle. In fact, Govtrack has her at 0.54 and Maine's other senator, Independent Angus King, is at 0.53. Additionally, Collins is to the left of several Senate Democrats.
There have been a few high-profile votes lately where she sided with Republicans, but her overall record is very moderate and appropriate for a Republican in a purple state. It's sloppy and lazy to pinpoint a single vote and call her a faux moderate.

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
x4
Thu, April 16, 2020 06:35:44 PM UTC0:00
Bah. She only sides with Democrats when they would have won even without her vote.

Susan Collins isn't a moderate, she only plays one on TV.

 
I:1038PA Indy ( 1352.2366 points)
Thu, April 16, 2020 06:57:31 PM UTC0:00
Southern_Moderate2: I really feel that Collins is being unfairly attacked. Maine isn't a massively blue state, and her ideology score is almost exactly down the middle. In fact, Govtrack has her at 0.54 and Maine's other senator, Independent Angus King, is at 0.53. Additionally, Collins is to the left of several Senate Democrats.

There have been a few high-profile votes lately where she sided with Republicans, but her overall record is very moderate and appropriate for a Republican in a purple state. It's sloppy and lazy to pinpoint a single vote and call her a faux moderate.

Back in the early 2000s, Collins may have been to the left of a couple of Democrats and (Nelson, Breaux, maybe Landrieu), but since 2009 she's given up any maverick card she may have had and fallen in line every time leadership has called.

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Thu, April 16, 2020 08:18:47 PM UTC0:00
You could have made a case for Olympia Snowe being a moderate, but Collins was always a stealth conservative.

 
R:10538Southern_Moderate2 ( 67.4474 points)
Sat, May 30, 2020 10:43:55 PM UTC0:00
@RP & PA Indy
I'm just now seeing this, but you apparently aren't looking at any metric for ideology. I suggest either Govtrack or DW Nominate.
Govtrack's 2019 report card has her to the left of four Senate Democrats and barely to the right of Maine's other senator, Angus King.

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Mon, June 15, 2020 07:54:11 PM UTC0:00

 
I:7114Kyle ( 745.3659 points)
Mon, June 15, 2020 07:58:29 PM UTC0:00
Not ideal when an internal poll had you up one in April, and the nation has trended only increasingly towards Democrats.

 
R:9757BrentinCO ( 3307.2993 points)
Mon, June 15, 2020 08:40:00 PM UTC0:00
Susan Collins must be concerned.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -300.4630 points)
Fri, August 21, 2020 09:40:02 PM UTC0:00
Maybe

 
R:7501Maryland Republican ( 2695.0906 points)
Sat, August 22, 2020 03:22:24 AM UTC0:00
I think so. During his presidency or up to 2010, I’d say no. But because Bush is Trump-skeptic at best, he’s been out of office for over a decade and the last name of the candidates isn’t Bush, I think it’s noteworthy.

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Sat, August 22, 2020 04:14:48 AM UTC0:00
I'm not surprised by it. Bush is still a Republican. He's not anti-moderate Republican, he's anti-Trump. If he decides to endorse Trump after all, that will be notable.

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Mon, August 31, 2020 05:02:31 PM UTC0:00