Here's the first general election poll showing Brexit Party with a lead: https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1134894725020954625 I'm not sure if UK voters will swing back to the two main parties when campaigning starts, but the first two post-European election polls point to a very uncertain result for the next election.

Last time Labour got less than 25% of the vote in a UK General Election was over 100 years ago in 1918.

Labour losing ground in Wales to the Tories, losing ground in Scotland to the SNP, losing ground in London to the Lib Dems, and losing ground in the North East to the Brexit Party. However, Corbyn and Labour need those last three parties to siphon votes away from or beat the Tories in difficult regions for Labour (Lib Dems in the South West, SNP in northern Scotland, and Brexit in rural areas) to deny the Tories a majority. And even if THAT happens, Labour would still need to build a majority with the SNP who wants an independence referendum and the Lib Dems who have refused to put Corbyn in Number 10.

Add to that list that moderate Labour MPs and voters are less than enthused by Corbyn or simply feel not wanted in the party. They may have not have been overly excited in 2017 but still voted for him. This year there is an exodus. I’ll still contend that Labour has the least attractive and most confusing postion on a post-referendum Brexit in an election that will be centered on Brexit. Its because of this that support is bleeding to the Brexit Party, SNP and Lib Dems which all have very clear unambiguous positions. Still, there is about a month left before election day so anything can happen in this election which will be anything but predictable.

I remain more optimistic than ever that Corbyn will pull this off

One thing Corbyn has going for him is that the Tories are trying to pick off seats in Labour heartlands (and historically unfriendly to Conservatives) largely on Brexit. If other issues pop up in the campaign that the public and media begin to focus on, Corbyn could put Boris on the defensive. It's what happened in 2017 and Corbyn hopes it happens again.

Nigel Farage has announced that the Brexit Party will not be running candidates in the 317 seats the Tories won in 2017. RIP Labour