Poll Average Details- UK House of Commons - Popular Vote - 2019-12-12 16:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Conservative Party Labour Party Liberal Democrats Scottish National Party Green Party of England & Wales The Brexit Party UK Independence Party Change UK – The Independent Group Plaid Cymru Others Democratic Unionist Party Sinn Féin Social Democratic and Labour Party Ulster Unionist Party Independent Women's Equality Party
Opinium12/11X 1.00000   45.0000 - 0.4420 bias 33.0000 - 0.7288 bias 12.0000 - -0.2855 bias 4.0000 - 2.3101 bias 2.0000 - 0.7193 bias 2.0000 - 2.2811 bias     0.0000 - -0.1554 bias              
Panelbase12/11X 1.00000   43.0000 - 0.8251 bias 34.0000 - 4.4003 bias 11.0000 - -2.5222 bias 4.0000 - -0.8455 bias 3.0000 - -1.1781 bias 4.0000 - -2.2498 bias     0.0000 - -0.2351 bias              
Survation12/11X 1.00000   45.0000 - -1.6647 bias 34.0000 - -0.9298 bias 9.0000 - 1.5083 bias 4.0000 - 1.6993 bias 3.0000 - 0.8266 bias 3.0000 - 5.8776 bias     1.0000 - 0.9640 bias              
Savanta ComRes12/10X 0.98333   41.0000 - -0.4062 bias 36.0000 - 1.7818 bias 12.0000 - 0.8389 bias 4.0000 - 0.0331 bias 2.0000 - 1.5710 bias 3.0000 - 1.4272 bias     0.0000 - 0.0016 bias              
Deltapoll12/7X 0.93333   44.0000 - 0.7519 bias 33.0000 - -1.8030 bias 11.0000 - 2.1549 bias 4.0000 - 0.1843 bias 2.0000 - -0.6956 bias 3.0000 - 0.7183 bias 1.0000 - 0.9488 bias   0.0000 - -0.4808 bias              
YouGov12/6X 0.91667   43.0000 - -2.2623 bias 33.0000 - -3.7254 bias 13.0000 - 2.5136 bias 4.0000 - -2.1958 bias 3.0000 - 1.6851 bias 3.0000 - 8.7373 bias     0.0000 - 0.3723 bias              
ICM Research11/25X 0.73333   41.0000 - -0.2225 bias 34.0000 - 2.2922 bias 13.0000 - 3.5534 bias 3.0000 - 0.0677 bias 3.0000 - 1.8427 bias 4.0000 - 2.0255 bias 0.0000 - -0.5770 bias   1.0000 - 1.8558 bias              
BMG Research11/15X 0.56667   37.0000 - 0.4240 bias 29.0000 - 0.7163 bias 16.0000 - -4.1510 bias 2.0000 - -0.4361 bias 5.0000 - 0.0068 bias 9.0000 - 5.8267 bias     0.0000 - -0.2169 bias              
Ipsos MORI10/28X 0.26667   41.0000 - -1.1045 bias 24.0000 - -2.3889 bias 20.0000 - 0.8073 bias 4.0000 - 2.5783 bias 3.0000 - 1.4720 bias 7.0000 - 4.9851 bias 0.0000 - -0.7943 bias 0.0000 - -0.0314 bias 1.0000 - 0.4739 bias              
TOTAL 42.993666 32.826109 11.568500 3.498327 2.143365 0.715075 0.353138 0.031400 0.022705 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000