| DISCUSSION |
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| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | May 01, 2025 02:27pm |
Don't think this matters much, he was a surefire loser in a general election either way. I'm not sure this race, or the gubernatorial race for that matter, is very salvageable for VA Rs.
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Race
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| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | April 24, 2025 09:53am |
The FL Dem bench is so bare all they can do is nominate Republicans for governor.
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News
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| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | April 23, 2025 06:17am |
The 2024 CA US President page is still inaccessible and glitched 6 months after the election. That's absurd. I believe the glitched page should be deleted and a new one created in its place. I'm not sure if that would fix the problem but it's worth a shot, that page can't stay broken forever.
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Issue
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| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | April 22, 2025 07:32am |
Democrats are seemingly struggling to find a good candidate here, unless someone amazing jumps in at a later date. Call me crazy but I don't think Abrams, Bottoms or random State Senator dude can be classified as anything other than below-average options.
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Race
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| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | April 22, 2025 07:23am |
Trump is yet again ditching a candidate he previously endorsed after he saw said candidate getting clobbered in the polls. The funniest part is he's claiming he's "co-endorsing" them both & that they're both good candidates. He was too ***** to rescind his endorsement of Robson.
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Race
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| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | April 22, 2025 07:01am |
Rs just lost an amazing candidate with Herrity dropping out.
I don't know much about Reid but I have a feeling a conservative radio host isn't a good fit for a state like Virginia. Whoever advances from the Dem clown car primary will likely be the heavy favorite in the general.
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Race
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| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | April 13, 2025 02:11pm |
Could someone remove Mrs. George Custis? Made a mistake when editing the candidates.
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Race
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| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | April 11, 2025 05:24am |
Can't wait for all the incessant Osborn internals to flood the polling average again...
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Race
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| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | April 07, 2025 07:31am |
Could someone remove one of the Victory Fund endorsements
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Race
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| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | April 03, 2025 05:44am |
IDMN: Clearly, Dems have a motivation advantage right now, and that is a tangible benefit.
They've had a noticeable motivation advantage in the majority of specials for a few years now, even when Biden was in office. This is nothing new. What exactly is the difference between this election and, say, OH-6 2024 where Rs underperformed by more than they did here? Did they go on to lose 2024 because they did worse in a random special election than they were supposed to?
As for 2026, I don't think it takes a rocket scientist to figure out it's going to be a blue year. Dems will likely easily flip the House and net a few seats in the Senate. I believe this not because the special elections are predicting a blue wave, they've been doing that for a few years now, but because it's a midterm with an incumbent R President & I know Democrats will be motivated to stick it to Trump. It's that simple.
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Race
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| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | April 02, 2025 10:11am |
CA Pol Junkie: This election had over 80% of the turnout of the 2022 midterm.
Exactly, still a lower turnout than a midterm. Who do you suppose a majority of the remaining 20% that didn't vote would break for?
Also, saying 2022 and 2025 had a similar enough amount of voters doesn't prove that the electorate that turned out yesterday wasn't more D-favorable than the one that turned out in 2022.
CA Pol Junkie: If Republicans want to win Supreme Court races, maybe they should try running candidates who aren't party stooges.
Perhaps, but Democrats have run party stooges the past 3 court elections and it's worked out wonderfully for them. A squishy moderate R might have done better but I struggle to see how this hypothetical dream candidate could close a 10-point deficit.
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Race
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| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | April 02, 2025 05:37am |
Campari_007: I get to explain to Republicans how bad this is for them.
Explain away LOL.
I have to wonder when Dems will realize that winning/overperforming in low-turnout specials and random off-year elections isn't as impressive as they make it seem. They've been bragging about it for years but the second a general election that people actually vote in comes around they don't do nearly as well as they do in specials (2022) or they end up underperforming expectations (2024). It's the exact same situation Republicans faced a decade ago, they won elections few people turned out for but bombed in higher-turnout environments. In other words, it's a turnout issue.
As for this race: If Wisconsin Rs want to win elections like these they need to make an effort to move them so they coincide with midterm/presidential elections. I believe this can be done if voters approve of it in a referendum but don't quote me on that. The electorate that turns out for these random April elections are obviously too hostile for Republicans to win over, they lost three times in a row by the exact same margin. At the very least Kinser would have won if a 2022-type of electorate turned out.
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Race
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| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | April 02, 2025 05:19am |
This district is more rural and had lower turnout than FL-6, recipes for a larger than expected GOP underperformance.
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Race
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| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | April 02, 2025 05:14am |
BREAKING: Electoral superstar Randy Fine wins in an unexpected landslide against Democrat Josh Weil, defying previous expectations of a nailbiter race.
The Hammer of Zion officially enters Congress.
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Race
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| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | March 31, 2025 02:28pm |
BrentinCO: I was going to shift my pick to Weil but seems like a lot of negative stuff coming out this weekend on him and sticking with slight Fine.
No way Weil was ever going to win this, it's an R+30 seat in Florida.
I do agree this will be closer than it needs to be, though not within single digits IMO.
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Race
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| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | March 13, 2025 07:16am |
Luzerne County Historian: Is it me or does Auditor seem like a step down from Secretary of State?
Where else could he go? He just tried running for higher office last year and got trashed hard in the primary.
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Race
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| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | March 13, 2025 07:10am |
CA Pol Junkie: Or it would continue the tradition of popular former governors of the party opposite to the partisan lean of a state getting beat when they run for Senate.
Maybe, but unlike all those other governors Sununu would be running in a state Republicans are still competitive in.
This isn't another Hogan 2024 or Bullock 2020 situation.
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Race
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| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | March 04, 2025 05:41am |
Brown seems like one of those candidates that look amazing on paper but end up underperforming expectations when they do actually run.
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Race
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| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | February 13, 2025 06:22am |
LSjustbloggin: I hope swamp creature McConnell retires at long last.
If he was seeking reelection he wouldn't be actively defying Trump by voting against his more controversial cabinet nominees, i.e. being the only R to vote against Gabbard. Considering this, I think it's pretty obvious he's retiring.
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Race
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| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | January 29, 2025 06:12am |
Rs tend to do better in higher turnout environments these days, the lower the turnout the better Dems generally perform.
It used to be the opposite a decade ago.
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Race
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| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | December 06, 2024 05:12am |
E Pluribus Unum: Anyone have any info on who those 6 other people voted for?
5 voted for George A. Nelson
1 voted for Thomas Charles O'Brien
[Link]
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Race
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| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | November 17, 2024 06:30am |
Peltola's not much of an electoral juggernaut when her opposition is united and she's running against only one Republican, color me shocked.
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Race
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| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | November 14, 2024 09:16am |
If this district fails to meet the compactness criteria then it should have been redrawn to be more compact, simple as. There is no reason to follow any of these criteria if you're not going to apply them to ALL of the districts.
The Cali map is also poor with regards to communities of interest. It literally splits Bakersfield in half, following racial lines. That seems problematic to me, but what do I know.
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Race
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| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | November 14, 2024 05:21am |
Trump becomes the first R presidential candidate to receive over a million votes in Maryland since George W. twenty years ago.
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Race
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| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | November 14, 2024 04:52am |
Don't know much about daddy Gaetz but he can't be worse than his son.
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Race
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