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  NE US Senate
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Nebraska > Senate Class I
OfficeSenate
HonorificSenator - Abbr: Sen.
Type General Election
Filing Deadline ---
Polls Open November 05, 2024 - 08:00am Central
Polls Close November 05, 2024 - 08:00pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2025 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2031 - 12:00pm
ContributorRP
Last ModifiedRBH December 02, 2024 07:29pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/06/2018
NameDeb Fischer Votes403,151 (57.72%)
Term01/03/2019 - 01/03/2025 Margin133,234 (+19.08%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
May 14, 2024 NE US Senate - R Primary
Deb Fischer
R 219,154
May 14, 2024 NE US Senate - LMN Primary
Kerry Eddy
LMN 1,049
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
01/24/2023 11/05/2024
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Deb Fischer 9 7 2 6
Dan Osborn 4 ------
Leaning Call: Deb Fischer (92.98%)
Weighted Call: Deb Fischer (100.18%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

04/24/2024 10/31/2024

CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name (I) Sen. Deb Fischer Dan Osborn (W) Write-In  
PartyRepublican Independent Nonpartisan  
Campaign Logo  
Certified Votes 499,124 (53.19%) 436,493 (46.52%) 2,719 (0.29%)  
Margin0 (0.00%) -62,631 (-6.67%) -496,405 (-52.90%)  
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand 6/30 $2,996,473.50 6/30 $649,749.00 $--  
Website [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site]  
Entry Date 06/28/2023 09/21/2023 --  
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (16 from 9 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg47.79%-- 45.27%-- 0.00%--  
Change Research 
10/30/24-10/31/24
47.00% 1.0 47.00% 1.0 0.00% --
Torchlight Strategies 
10/25/24-10/28/24
51.00% 0.3 44.00% 0.5 0.00% --
YouGov 
10/21/24-10/28/24
50.00% -- 43.00% -- 0.00% --
Siena Research Institute 
10/23/24-10/26/24
48.00% -- 46.00% -- 0.00% --
Change Research 
10/18/24-10/21/24
46.00% 3.0 48.00% 2.0 0.00% --
Torchlight Strategies 
10/12/24-10/15/24
51.30% 3.3 44.50% 2.5 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 

DROPPED OUT - NO VOTES
Kerry Eddy (LMN)
Jul 30, 2024

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
10/18/2024 Dan Osborn vs Deb Fischer TVAd Attack eng Fire - Osborn for Senate  00:00:30 E Pluribus Unum 
10/17/2024 Deb Fischer vs Dan Osborn TVAd Attack eng Trump Ad for Deb Fischer  00:00:30 BrentinCO 

BOOKS
Title Purchase Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Oct 21, 2024 02:00pm News Nebraska independent Dan Osborn could be poised to shake up U.S. Senate  Article BrentinCO 

DISCUSSION
[View All
43
Previous Messages]
 
R:11448Maryland Republican93 ( 2177.9980 points)
Wed, September 25, 2024 11:56:51 PM UTC0:00
I would agree. Keep the Osborn endorsement but delete the other two. He’s technically an independent so I think it’s appropriate. The other two, it’s a D endorsing a D, nothing unexpected.

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 99.8770 points)
x2
Thu, September 26, 2024 05:24:23 AM UTC0:00
They said Greg Orman had a chance in 2014 in Kansas, they said Evan McMullin had a chance in Utah in 2022. Now they say Dan Osborn has a chance in Nebraska in 2024.

 
D:1RP ( 5618.8218 points)
Fri, September 27, 2024 05:39:10 PM UTC0:00
I continue with my guide that Osborn has to be polling at 49% before I think he has a chance.

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 99.8770 points)
Mon, September 30, 2024 03:10:25 AM UTC0:00
What has Fischer done that makes her deserving to lose ?. She's just your typical establishment Republican.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -228.6384 points)
Mon, September 30, 2024 04:11:56 AM UTC0:00
LSjustbloggin: She's just your typical establishment Republican.

Exactly

 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 9683.0742 points)
x2 x2
Wed, October 2, 2024 11:54:06 PM UTC0:00

 
WFP:11714BigZuck08 ( 1151.8744 points)
Tue, October 15, 2024 01:45:20 PM UTC0:00
An Osborn internal was just released showing Osborn hitting 50% for the first time.

This actually appears to be a race, but I still think Fischer will win.

 
D:6086Jason (13430.6523 points)
Tue, October 15, 2024 02:38:04 PM UTC0:00
Downgrading to Lean Fischer out of safety, but I remain skeptical.

Part of my doubts lie in what kind of GOTV operation Osborn has. He's not an incumbent like Bernie Sanders or Angus King, doesn't have the Democratic endorsement, and isn't a billionaire like Michael Bloomberg.


 
D:1RP ( 5618.8218 points)
Tue, October 15, 2024 03:46:41 PM UTC0:00
Hmm. I did say I'd start to pay attention when he hit 49%. An internal, but still...

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -228.6384 points)
Tue, October 15, 2024 04:55:55 PM UTC0:00
Jason: Part of my doubts lie in what kind of GOTV operation Osborn has. He's not an incumbent like Bernie Sanders or Angus King, doesn't have the Democratic endorsement, and isn't a billionaire like Michael Bloomberg.

But in fairness, with the scam he pulled on the Dems and Legal Marijuana Now Parties, he does know how to play the game it seems....

 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 9683.0742 points)
Tue, October 15, 2024 06:38:26 PM UTC0:00
Republican internals show concern for Fischer.

Look for the "Osborn is a Bernie clone" narrative to be used in the campaign closeout to save Fischer. This seemed to be leaked in the Republican internals analysis.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -228.6384 points)
Tue, October 15, 2024 06:46:31 PM UTC0:00
BrentinCO: Look for the "Osborn is a Bernie clone" narrative to be used in the campaign closeout to save Fischer. This seemed to be leaked in the Republican internals analysis.

The Online Left's already jumped on for 'em. Saying that if Osborn wins he's proof "BERNIECRATS CAN WIN NATIONWIDE"

I'm more understanding that Osborn's not a "BERNIECRAT", even if there's obvious links lol

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 756.1104 points)
Wed, October 23, 2024 06:36:26 AM UTC0:00
I feel like a lot of youngish male voters turning out for Trump, just might pull the lever for Osborn. Fischer is perhaps unlikely to lose in Nebraska...but she's definitely in trouble.

 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 9683.0742 points)
Wed, October 23, 2024 07:26:53 PM UTC0:00
Fischer is definitely struggling. I might be missing something, but I don't understand why she is struggling and other Rs aren't. She is at worst "generic Republican" and "generic Republican" should be doing at least 5 points better in the polls in Nebraska.

 
WFP:11714BigZuck08 ( 1151.8744 points)
Wed, October 23, 2024 08:06:50 PM UTC0:00
BrentinCO: Fischer is definitely struggling. I might be missing something, but I don't understand why she is struggling and other Rs aren't. She is at worst "generic Republican" and "generic Republican" should be doing at least 5 points better in the polls in Nebraska.

I don't think it's because of Fischer being a bad or controversial candidate, but I think it's because of Osborn being a great candidate. He's not a Democrat and even outright refused to form a coalition with them, and he's coming across as bipartisan and populist.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -228.6384 points)
Fri, October 25, 2024 09:10:52 PM UTC0:00
I'M ENDORSING FOR THE MEME I SWEAR


 
WFP:11714BigZuck08 ( 1151.8744 points)
Tue, October 29, 2024 02:08:44 PM UTC0:00

 
I:11727LSjustbloggin ( 99.8770 points)
Tue, October 29, 2024 08:14:18 PM UTC0:00
Osborn would need to win at least 60% percent of the vote in Douglas County in order to stand a chance.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -228.6384 points)
Wed, November 6, 2024 03:15:22 AM UTC0:00
LSjustbloggin: Osborn would need to win at least 60% percent of the vote in Douglas County in order to stand a chance.

58.5% with 70% in.......

 
D:6086Jason (13430.6523 points)
Wed, November 6, 2024 05:23:58 PM UTC0:00
Never take the bait.

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