This is gonna be a very close race I think. Like within 1%.

https://twitter.com/RollingStone/status/1703054139775729881

Is Emerson hedging its best or did Cameron have a great month?

Probably just the less political in a very partisan state starting to pay attention.

I've been suspecting that the polling has been a little too optimistic for Beshear for awhile. Emerson getting closer to the final totals than other firms would likely be a situation of luck. But, I don't know how strong the situation should be for an incumbent right now, especially a D incumbent in an R state.

I think the polling averaging here is correct: this will be decided by less than 1.5% of the vote.

Who knows if the early returns will hold, but Beshear is running about 10% ahead of last time in the counties reporting.

Taylor County is 94% in, and Beshear is up 4% there over 2019.

Bell County is 81% in, and Beshear is up 3% there over 2019.

Lee County is 76% in, and Beshear is up 13% over 2019.

Rowan is 93% in, and Beshear is up there by 2.5% over 2019.

Dave Wasserman has "seen enough" and called it for Beshear. https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1722047246512832967

If Jefferson County shows a swing towards Beshear when all votes are counted, it would be interesting to see if his gains are coming from the suburban areas of the county given recent inroads by Republicans in urban areas.

I haven't been as in-the-weeds this year as in some other years but.. which recent inroads are we referring to in regards to Rs and urban areas? (NYC and Hochul? or other races)

I was thinking about the 2020 election and the small gains Republicans were seeing in the large cities (granted, that could just be the Democrats hitting an inevitable ceiling): https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/upshot/2020-election-map.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

yeah, it'll be interesting to find out which 2020 results stick and which don't considering the various circumstances of that election

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1722047602084966652 *furiously scribbles "do a good job at handling disasters" in the election handbook*

the Change% map is good for figuring out some of the counties on the southern border get their TV from Nashville the Kentucky TV market map: https://tbh.lerctr.org/~ekb/TVMarkets/Maps/kentucky.gif Also McCreary swinging R in the Knoxville market while the Lexington market counties swung D. The counties on the Virginia border were a bit of a split decision while counties on the WV border mostly swung R.

Classy concession. Not the end for Cameron. https://twitter.com/politico/status/1722091418686988474