That is honestly hilarious to me, because I remember Rectenwald from Lefbook groups almost a decade ago when he was trying to build a brand as a left-communist guru. Seeing him as an attempted standard bearer for Misesite libertarianism really hammers home 1) how much of an opportunist he is and 2) how much the Misesites are terrible at politics. That said, this must be incredibly frustrating to have to deal with. I'm very much not a Libertarian but as a veteran of third party faction fights you do have my sympathies. 100%, and by my judgment the naked opportunism is a major reason why his candidacy has had so much trouble taking off. The irony is that the caucus seems oddly cozy with authcoms when convenient yet lost their minds a few years ago when the LP had a libsoc group that was only a marginal force in one state and mostly nonexistent elsewhere. It's certainly maddening at times dealing with the factional stuff, so I appreciate your perspective there. Hey Ralphie - can you explain how delegates to the LNC are chosen? It would be interesting to know how the various third parties choose delegates. I attended a convention once, and some people just showed up and were allowed to sit as delegates even though their state party was inactive. Each state affiliate selects delegates at convention based on their own rules. Most all require delegates to be members of the state party, and some have seasoning requirements to disallow the "just showed up" potential you described. It's quite common for affiliates to suspend the rules to allow those present to be able to vote, though not as likely to extend that for national delegations. Almost all affiliates hold a vote for delegates, by one method or another. Those with larger delegations often will elect anybody meeting their requirements that is willing to attend, since there are many seats to fill and it requires time and money. Last cycle was different because the Mises Caucus was energized and was helping to pay for travel & lodging, so there was more competition for delegate seats and in some cases they voted to change the rules to make it easier to stack delegations. I don't suspect as much of that now that the spark is gone and money is depleted. Coming from a larger affiliate here in Washington we had 36 positions last time and only about a half dozen more than that interested that became alternates. And that was only going to Reno. For Washington DC it's a lot more effort and expense, coupled with all the former Mises members who have since tapered off, so I rather suspect any of our members willing to attend will be chosen. I've already made my arrangements to be one of them. If nothing else it's the first time I'll have been in DC since I was a kid.

First convention straw poll to be held this cycle. Hoping to get actual figures later but they did release the finish order: https://twitter.com/Arizona_LP/status/1746874725413028024

Also, FYI, this race is effectively guaranteed to be "won" by Charles Ballay. He's the only candidate certified on the ballot in the California primary that swamps the results of the half-dozen other states holding LP primary elections. I'm not sure how that specifically came to pass but the California LP is currently run by incompetents so I rather assume it's somehow related to that.

Lars Mapstead is all over my "For You" twitter feed. Not knowing anything about the dynamics of the nomination - I would have assumed him to be the leading Libertarian candidate.

He's wealthy from his tech career and has been spending a lot on visibility metrics like social media advertising and polling that includes him as the LP candidate. Other than that, his strategy has been pinpointed on certain states like those with per-district EV because his big thing is earning an electoral vote. Thus, his support is really solid in a few places like Maine but in those inactive states is fairly sparse. I'd originally predicted him for this primary race because he's from California and I figured he'd probably win that primary with a little spending on flyers.

Also, FYI, this race is effectively guaranteed to be "won" by Charles Ballay. He's the only candidate certified on the ballot in the California primary that swamps the results of the half-dozen other states holding LP primary elections. I'm not sure how that specifically came to pass but the California LP is currently run by incompetents so I rather assume it's somehow related to that. I mean, it means little in the broader race, but it is weird that none of the "actual" candidates are on the CA Primary. The nomination is probably going to Rectenwald, because the LP's worst are in charge atm

Yeah, I'd really like to know how that one guy ended up being the only certified candidate. California is the home base for arguably the worst of the Mises Caucus so if it were a true fix they just would have only put Rectenwald on. TBH, I'd put Rect's chances of being nominated at maybe 25%. The only folks I ever see pushing his campaign in social spaces are on it or are MC higher ups, otherwise it's people lamenting that he's uninspiring or unprincipled. Hornberger has been hammering him at every convention debate on his unlibertarian positions. That's probably the reason for the 2nd place finish, ha.

I think the fact that the top people want him is the sole reason he is winning. The Mises Cuckus will simply just say "This guy is the most Pro-Liberty guy" and the base will eat it up with maybe some argument with the Johnson types trying to push Oliver

Had this term not been such a shitshow I'd agree. Most of the people they had before aren't around anymore or are disillusioned.

Had this term not been such a shitshow I'd agree. Most of the people they had before aren't around anymore or are disillusioned. The Mises Caucus itself is bleeding support?

The Mises Caucus itself is bleeding support? Probably just admitted they are fascist and jumped to the GOP

The Mises Caucus itself is bleeding support? Their numbers were already inflated in Reno with what is sometimes called the "delegate class," that is to say, people who normally are not involved heavily and were chosen as delegates over more qualified people. Those folks did their thing and peaced out. Then there are MC believers who are upset with how the people they put into leadership have performed and either left or are figuring out what to do now. They still control some affiliates and could stack those delegations but it's unlikely they will be able to do that as broadly this time with less money and less optimism over what could be done with control of leadership.

Not an endorsement, though this peek at the initial lay of the land for the traditional base of the party has certainly chapped many an ass in the Rect and Smith camps. https://twitter.com/LPRadicals/status/1760091492486451218