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Like Pennsylvania, Maryland is a closed primary state. I would expect Haley to get around 25% of the vote, perhaps even higher. Haley may actually be able to win a congressional district or two, the 3rd which is Howard and Anne Arundel counties (where trump is radioactive even among Republicans) and the 8th (Jamie Raskin’s Montgomery County district. If Trump is losing counties to Haley, which is possible, look at Howard, Anne Arundel and Montgomery. I doubt he will lose any, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he lost one of those.
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Harris should still win and probably won’t be too close, but Bruneau is giving Harris a run for his money. Harris has never seemed to fully lock down this district and I wonder if a stronger Republican could have taken him out this year. Look at Cecil County; over 2,000 registered Democrats have switched to Republican to vote against the Republican Cecil County Executive - since the Republican Primary will all but determine the winner in this red county. Those same voters will almost certainly be voting against Harris, who is backing that county executive. Cecil County is also just one of two counties in Maryland (the other being insanely red but very small Garrett County) where more Republicans than Democrats have requested and returned mail-in ballots. I say this not because I expect Harris to lose, but I will be interested if he loses Cecil County, and possibly a random county on the shore too.
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Brandon Scott is getting positive press with his handling of the Key Bridge collapse. However, with Vignarajah out and backing Dixon, tight race but I’ll give the edge at this moment to Dixon. Crime and safety is a big campaign issue. The new States Attorney, Ivan Bates, endorsed Dixon. His endorsement is being featured in a TV ad running consistently where he says “he isn’t looking at the past, but looking toward the future”. I was surprised to see Senator Jill Carter backing Dixon, Carter is a strong criminal Justice reform backer and Dixon is running as the tough on crime candidate. Dixon has narrowly lost two comebacks for this job, I think the third time may be the charm.
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Looks like having every Dem in the state practically backing you may just beat out unlimited money. I still think Trone can pull this out but I have no doubt Angela Alsobrooks has all the momentum right now. I’m not even going to try to make a prediction on this one. Who can get their base out (Montgomery vs Prince George’s Counties) and what does the possible of increased turnout in Baltimore do?
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Two polls now show Hogan trailing by 10, while last month a poll showed Hogan up 15+. My belief on the ground is the truth is in the middle. What I’ve heard from a friend with inside to the MDGOP is Hogan’s internals are close to the latter poll, not the polls of the past few days. Both polls tested the democratic primary and the general, my guess is if you are answering the democratic primary question, you probably aren’t likely voting for Hogan in November. Anecdotally, in heavily Republican Harford County, I know more Biden voters who are going to vote for Hogan in November, particularly if Angela Alsobrooks is the nominee. I hear that a lot, mixed with if it’s Hogan vs Trone, more hesitancy before answering. Maryland is a deep blue state, but Hogan will certainly keep this interesting whether he wins or not in November.
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No longer a tie, Low advances to second spot by 5 votes
[Link]
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Good luck! Safe travels.
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Nope, not this year. :)
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Check mark given by VPAP. They have been great this year, so I’ll give it the benefit with the call. With that, Loudoun County Republicans had a great night.
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VPAP has Lovejoy ahead by 5 points…
[Link]
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Retiring ?s=46&t=lGNx2caSRT0L123cN0vLWA
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@BrentinCO - totally agree with you. I was just checking, just because I read it somewhere does not make it right! :)
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Are we sure Whipple has advanced? I read somewhere there were still votes to be counted and it was too close to call for the 2nd spot?
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Should this be “primary” and not “runoff”. Same with the Democratic Primary for this seat…
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I am removing the entry date because Dan Cox says it wasnt him who filed for Congress. [Link]
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Wow - didn't expect to see Dave Reichert run for office again. Probably the best candidate Republicans can get by far.
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Liberal hold [Link]
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Marc Victor dropped out [Link]
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So a poll from Kellyanne’s firm shows this race on the cusp of being competitive. I’ve said this since December of last year. Carroll is deep dark red and Trump tanked in Baltimore County. Nicolee Ambrose is running a good, grassroots campaign. Dutch is still the (slight) favorite, but if you want to look for a freak upset in Election Night, this could be one.
?s=21
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Oh well I guess. Thank you, just glad to be back. Is it possible to have this new account granted the same access as my old account? Thank you!
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Hey RP, so I made a new account, having been unable to log into my old account (Maryland Republican) since May. I’m assuming that old account can be accessed anymore, which kinda sucks after 12 years with it :(
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Thank you to E Pluribus Unum and Crimson for help in getting an account set up. Have not been able to log back into my old account, Maryland Republican, since May. Would it be possible to grant this account the access my old account had? It’s a shame to lose that old account dating back to 2010. Glad to be back!
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