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  US President - Popular Vote
  RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > U.S. Executive > Popular Vote
Office
TypeGeneral Election
Filing Deadline June 01, 2024 - 12:00pm
Polls Open November 05, 2024 - 06:00am
Polls Close November 05, 2024 - 07:00pm
Term Start January 20, 2025 - 12:00pm
Term End January 20, 2029 - 12:00pm
ContributorRP
Last Modifiedev January 16, 2025 05:29pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
PartyDemocratic Won11/03/2020
NameJoe Biden Votes81,285,571 (51.31%)
Term01/20/2021 - 01/20/2025 Margin7,060,533 (+4.46%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Jun 01, 2023 US President - ASP Nomination Peter Sonski
Jan 15, 2024 US President - LBT Primaries Charles Ballay
Apr 04, 2024 US President - NL Convention No Nominee
Jun 04, 2024 US President - R Primaries Donald J. Trump
Jun 04, 2024 US President - D Primaries Joe Biden
Jun 04, 2024 US President - G Primaries Jill Stein
KEY RACE? 8.0000000000 Average
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Donald J. Trump
Slight 5
Tossup
Slight 1
Joe Biden
Slight 2
Kamala Harris
Lean 5
Slight 14
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH

05/11/2021 11/04/2024

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Donald J. Trump Kamala Harris Jill Stein Chase Oliver (W) Write-In Claudia De la Cruz Cornel West
PartyRepublican Democratic Green Libertarian Nonpartisan Socialism and Liberation Justice For All
Votes77,302,580 (49.80%) 75,017,613 (48.32%) 862,049 (0.56%) 650,126 (0.42%) 209,543 (0.14%) 166,175 (0.11%) 82,644 (0.05%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -2,284,967 (-1.47%) -76,440,531 (-49.24%) -76,652,454 (-49.38%) -77,093,037 (-49.66%) -77,136,405 (-49.69%) -77,219,936 (-49.74%)
Predict Avg.46.08% 48.94% 0.54% 0.67% 0.00% 0.00% 0.23%
Finances$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
MATCHUP POLLS
AtlasIntel 
11/03-11/04		 49.20% (+0.2) 48.10% (+1.1) 1.10% (+0.1) 0.10% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.30% (+0.0)
John Zogby Strategies 
11/02-11/03		 44.50% (+0.0) 48.10% (+0.0) 1.80% (+0.0) 3.20% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
Ipsos 
11/01-11/03		 48.00% (+2.0) 50.00% (+3.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
Research Co. 
11/02-11/03		 46.00% (-1.0) 48.00% (-4.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
TIPP 
11/01-11/03		 49.00% (+3.0) 48.00% (-1.0) 1.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 1.00% (+0.0)
Patriot Polling 
11/01-11/03		 48.10% (-0.9) 49.40% (+2.4) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
I Joe Rogan [L]
REF Nigel Farage [L]
R Edwin E. "Buzz" Aldrin, Jr. [L]
I José Eduardo Verástegui Córdoba [L]
CON William Hague [L]
N Shawn Fain [L]
EGP European Green Party [L]
I Mark Cuban [L]
R David Duke [L]
For Luzerne County Historian
LAP Ralphie
I Charlotte Rose
  Spartacist League
N Michael Valentine [L]
G Chris Hedges [L]
G Medea Benjamin [L]
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Peter Sonski Randall A. Terry Shiva Ayyadurai None of These Candidates Richard A. Duncan Joel Skousen Jay Bowman
PartyAmerican Solidarity Constitution Independent Independent Independent Independent American Independent
Votes44,000 (0.03%) 41,294 (0.03%) 28,437 (0.02%) 19,625 (0.01%) 12,805 (0.01%) 12,786 (0.01%) 5,975 (0.00%)
Margin-77,258,580 (-49.77%) -77,261,286 (-49.77%) -77,274,143 (-49.78%) -77,282,955 (-49.78%) -77,289,775 (-49.79%) -77,289,794 (-49.79%) -77,296,605 (-49.79%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Finances$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
MATCHUP POLLS
AtlasIntel 
11/03-11/04		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
John Zogby Strategies 
11/02-11/03		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
Ipsos 
11/01-11/03		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
Research Co. 
11/02-11/03		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
TIPP 
11/01-11/03		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
Patriot Polling 
11/01-11/03		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
Grasshopper
R Tom DeLay [L]
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Chris Garrity Joseph "Joe" Kishore Rachele Fruit Mattie Preston Lucifer "Justin Case" Everylove National Committee Blake Huber Michael Wood
PartyIndependent Socialist Equality Socialist Workers Godliness, Truth, Justice Independent Approval Voting Prohibition
Votes5,297 (0.00%) 4,651 (0.00%) 4,118 (0.00%) 2,857 (0.00%) 2,653 (0.00%) 2,196 (0.00%) 1,144 (0.00%)
Margin-77,297,283 (-49.79%) -77,297,929 (-49.79%) -77,298,462 (-49.79%) -77,299,723 (-49.79%) -77,299,927 (-49.79%) -77,300,384 (-49.79%) -77,301,436 (-49.80%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Finances$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
MATCHUP POLLS
AtlasIntel 
11/03-11/04		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
John Zogby Strategies 
11/02-11/03		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
Ipsos 
11/01-11/03		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
Research Co. 
11/02-11/03		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
TIPP 
11/01-11/03		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
Patriot Polling 
11/01-11/03		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Vermin Supreme Laura Ebke William "Doc" Stodden Robert "Robby" Wells (W) Paij Boring (W) Jesse Cuellar (W) Shondra Irving
PartyUS Pirate Liberal Socialist Independent Independent Republican Independent Independent
Votes921 (0.00%) 859 (0.00%) 364 (0.00%) 359 (0.00%) 126 (0.00%) 98 (0.00%) 65 (0.00%)
Margin-77,301,659 (-49.80%) -77,301,721 (-49.80%) -77,302,216 (-49.80%) -77,302,221 (-49.80%) -77,302,454 (-49.80%) -77,302,482 (-49.80%) -77,302,515 (-49.80%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Finances$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
MATCHUP POLLS
AtlasIntel 
11/03-11/04		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
John Zogby Strategies 
11/02-11/03		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
Ipsos 
11/01-11/03		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
Research Co. 
11/02-11/03		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
TIPP 
11/01-11/03		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
Patriot Polling 
11/01-11/03		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo
Name (W) Future Madam Potus (W) Cherunda Fox (W) Raymond Scollin (W) John Cheng (W) Tom Hoefling (W) Steve M. Johnson (W) Brian Kienitz
PartyIndependent Independent Independent Republican Independent Independent Unaffiliated Independent
Votes52 (0.00%) 51 (0.00%) 51 (0.00%) 38 (0.00%) 34 (0.00%) 33 (0.00%) 30 (0.00%)
Margin-77,302,528 (-49.80%) -77,302,529 (-49.80%) -77,302,529 (-49.80%) -77,302,542 (-49.80%) -77,302,546 (-49.80%) -77,302,547 (-49.80%) -77,302,550 (-49.80%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Finances$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
MATCHUP POLLS
AtlasIntel 
11/03-11/04		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
John Zogby Strategies 
11/02-11/03		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
Ipsos 
11/01-11/03		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
Research Co. 
11/02-11/03		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
TIPP 
11/01-11/03		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
Patriot Polling 
11/01-11/03		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo
Name (W) Heather Lynn Stone (W) Doug Jenkins (W) Andre’ Ramon McNeil (W) Ralph Jaffe (W) President R19 Boddie (W) Kathleen Richardson (W) Andrew O'Donnell
PartyIndependent Independent Independent Independent Democrat Democratic Independent Independent
Votes30 (0.00%) 28 (0.00%) 28 (0.00%) 25 (0.00%) 22 (0.00%) 22 (0.00%) 20 (0.00%)
Margin-77,302,550 (-49.80%) -77,302,552 (-49.80%) -77,302,552 (-49.80%) -77,302,555 (-49.80%) -77,302,558 (-49.80%) -77,302,558 (-49.80%) -77,302,560 (-49.80%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Finances$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
MATCHUP POLLS
AtlasIntel 
11/03-11/04		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
John Zogby Strategies 
11/02-11/03		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
Ipsos 
11/01-11/03		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
Research Co. 
11/02-11/03		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
TIPP 
11/01-11/03		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
Patriot Polling 
11/01-11/03		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo
Name (W) Dawanda Shelton (W) James D. Soderna (W) Garry Hubbard (W) Bill Frankel (W) William C. Nalbach (W) James Struck (W) Susan Buchser Lochocki
PartyIndependent Independent Independent Unaffiliated Independent Independent Unaffiliated
Votes19 (0.00%) 14 (0.00%) 10 (0.00%) 10 (0.00%) 8 (0.00%) 8 (0.00%) 7 (0.00%)
Margin-77,302,561 (-49.80%) -77,302,566 (-49.80%) -77,302,570 (-49.80%) -77,302,570 (-49.80%) -77,302,572 (-49.80%) -77,302,572 (-49.80%) -77,302,573 (-49.80%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Finances$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
MATCHUP POLLS
AtlasIntel 
11/03-11/04		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
John Zogby Strategies 
11/02-11/03		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
Ipsos 
11/01-11/03		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
Research Co. 
11/02-11/03		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
TIPP 
11/01-11/03		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
Patriot Polling 
11/01-11/03		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo
Name (W) Mary "Carol" Asher (W) Richard B. Mayers (W) Dennis Schuller
PartyIndependent Independent Republican Legal Marijuana Now
Votes6 (0.00%) 2 (0.00%) 1 (0.00%)
Margin-77,302,574 (-49.80%) -77,302,578 (-49.80%) -77,302,579 (-49.80%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Finances$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
MATCHUP POLLS
AtlasIntel 
11/03-11/04		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
John Zogby Strategies 
11/02-11/03		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
Ipsos 
11/01-11/03		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
Research Co. 
11/02-11/03		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
TIPP 
11/01-11/03		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
Patriot Polling 
11/01-11/03		 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Oct 30, 2024 10:00am News Police are searching for the person who set ballot boxes on fire in Washington and Oregon. Here’s what we know  Article Jason 
Oct 16, 2024 02:30am Report Elon Musk and other billionaires invest staggering sums into electing Trump, plus other takeaways from third-quarter filings   Article RP 
Oct 14, 2024 02:35pm News Kamala Harris will sit down with Bret Baier for her first Fox News interview  Article Jason 
Oct 12, 2024 09:00am Poll Black Voters Drift From Democrats, Imperiling Harris’s Bid, Poll Shows  Article Jason 
Oct 05, 2024 11:35am News Trump is everywhere. Anxious Dems wonder why Harris isn’t.  Article Jason 
Sep 30, 2024 11:00am Poll Poll: Democrats' advantage with Latino voters continues to shrink  Article Jason 

DISCUSSION
[View Previous Messages In This Discussion (187 Previous)]
 
I:11444mg2685a ( 3228.65 points)March 12, 2024 07:46pm
Biden has officially clinched a majority of delegates to secure the Democratic nomination. I am going to amend this race to reflect as such.

[Link]
 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 9683.07 points)July 02, 2024 10:25am
 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -228.64 points)July 02, 2024 11:28am
Imagine going on the record saying ur exited to vote for this guy.

[Link]
 
LPP:10973Patrick ( 6.56 points)July 03, 2024 10:31pm
So we're all in agreement with SSRS that RFK Jr will basically double Ross Perot's vote share and get well over 20 million votes right? And Biden will still lose the popular vote.

How many dogs does a guy have to eat around here to get a realistic poll?
 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 9683.07 points)July 03, 2024 10:59pm
Patrick: So we're all in agreement with SSRS that RFK Jr will basically double Ross Perot's vote share and get well over 20 million votes right? And Biden will still lose the popular vote.

How many dogs does a guy have to eat around here to get a realistic poll?

The ghost of Matthew Perry has taken over your account lately. I'm convinced of this.
 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -228.64 points)July 03, 2024 11:13pm
Patrick: So we're all in agreement with SSRS that RFK Jr will basically double Ross Perot's vote share and get well over 20 million votes right? And Biden will still lose the popular vote.

Nope. Not even remotely. The insinuation that is even possible is ludacris.

There is no ****ing way that a crackpot conspiracy dip**** with a speech impediment will get more votes than Perot.

Perot got a high vote total due to the fact he was not only offering an alternative to what was the perceived ideological failings of the 2 major parties but also he flooded the markets with ads to make people KNOW who he was and what he could and would try to do.

RFK Jr quite literally has to base his entire campaign on vague posturing so people are bot turned off when he starts letting his brainworms start talking
 
LPP:10973Patrick ( 6.56 points)July 04, 2024 12:03pm
BrentinCO: The ghost of Matthew Perry has taken over your account lately. I'm convinced of this.

I'm hopeless and awkward and desperate for love!
 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 9683.07 points)July 04, 2024 01:15pm
Patrick: I'm hopeless and awkward and desperate for love!

Could you be any more hopeless?

Seriously interesting bio if yalls haven't read it. Of course we all know the outcome and the ending of the story, so it makes reading his story even more interesting since he wrote it before he died of a ketamine OD. Just a sad sad story.

I learned:
- he was more of addict than I ever realized. drugs. alcohol.
- he was a bad breaker upper
- had an affair with Valerie Bertinelli
- mom worked for Pierre Trudeau
- he beatup Justin Trudeau
 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 9683.07 points)July 23, 2024 03:21pm
Will the poll averaging ALWAYS include Biden polls? Or do they drop off after x days?
 
D:1RP ( 5618.82 points)July 23, 2024 04:31pm
I will probably need to rework it a bit.
 
For:10038Luzerne County Historian ( -154.39 points)July 23, 2024 04:53pm
Does anyone else think that Harris becoming the nominee (essentially) has nullified Kennedy's support or no?
 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 5444.70 points)July 23, 2024 07:08pm
Luzerne County Historian: Does anyone else think that Harris becoming the nominee (essentially) has nullified Kennedy's support or no?

Most of his support would self-nullify anyway, but Harris takes away any (already fatuous) argument that the major party candidates are the same so one might as well vote third party.
 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -228.64 points)July 23, 2024 09:26pm
Luzerne County Historian: Does anyone else think that Harris becoming the nominee (essentially) has nullified Kennedy's support or no?

The people who were backing Kennedy (or any 3rd party candidate) were not going to be swayed by any change to the Dem or GOP ticket.

People who are looking towards other options have already checked out. Much less people who are seriously looking to RFK JR for that alternative
 
WFP:11714BigZuck08 ( 1151.87 points)July 23, 2024 09:37pm
Before Biden was replaced, I was supporting writing in third-party, particularly RFK because he was the best-performing third party candidate in the polling we have seen thus far, as a protest to both of the options (Biden for his mental state and Trump for all of his convictions and charges). I don't know how much people were thinking like I was but I hope there's a lot.
 
D:1RP ( 5618.82 points)July 24, 2024 02:22pm
You're okay with someone whose brain has been eaten by worms?
 
WFP:11714BigZuck08 ( 1151.87 points)July 24, 2024 02:49pm
RP: You're okay with someone whose brain has been eaten by worms?

I was just saying I'd vote for him as a protest vote, not because I support him. Besides it's not like he has a chance of winning.
 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 9683.07 points)July 25, 2024 10:02am
FWIW, my own take below on the "State of the Race" since the Biden / Harris swap. Remarkable its only been about 4 or 5 days. Its a testament to how social media "quickens" the news cycle and the absorption of changes. Its also a warning that things could rapidly change in this race as the campaign progresses. Maybe we need to be conscious of the fact that "October Surprise" might become "Last week before the election Surprise." Or maybe even we will get a constant thread of surprises up until election day (some of which will turnout to be absolute disinformation).

- STATE OF RACE has tightened with Harris, mostly because of turnout prospects and Harris getting higher margins of AfAm and younger voters. But it still is Trumps race to lose as he has a slight edge among the competitive states even if the map has grown with Harris in the race.
- PRES EV VOTES: GA is now in play and can replace one of the must win states (PA or MI) for the Ds to get to 270; Does NC move into a possibility for Harris / Ds as the campaign continues? Something I'll be watching.
- HOUSE: Harris will increase AfAm turnout which will change the dynamics in several House Races including: VA02, NY22, NY04, MI08, CA13, CA27, CO08, and NC01. How does Harris's presence impact vulnerable Trump district Ds like Jared Golden and Mary Peltola?
- HOUSE probably favors the party that wins the White House, but it looks like it will be crazy close with Harris now in the race. 10 seats or less either way? Again?
- SENATE still favors Republicans
- TX SENATE I am standing by my prediction that we all could be surprised (closeness or a D victory) by the TX result - especially if AfAm turnout is higher with Harris on the ticket. I may be more conservative, but objectively Cruz is just not well liked even by Republicans in TX. Imagine a 2016 map against in a presidential year race with 2022 demographics. Highly unpredictable and crazy close imho.
- OH SENATE was always going to be close, but Harris on the top probably helps Sherrod Brown
- SENATE polling is still weirdly contradictory and confusing in some races. Is the PA race close? Or is it a blow-out. Is the NV race close? or is it blow-out. Is the WI race close? or is it a blow-out. New polling with Harris at the top did not add any clarity to the strange polling numbers coming out from some pollsters. I attribute this to very volatile models being used by pollsters. Am I the only one who saw the two national polls with similar overall margins but 1 showed Trump leading younger voters by ~ 20 points and the other showed Harris leading younger voters by ~ 20 points? Strange.
- OVERALL, still essentially the tight race we expected but small movements in a broader map could swing the race to Harris.
 
D:1RP ( 5618.82 points)July 26, 2024 09:55pm
 
WASH:8766Pennsylvanian ( 401.24 points)July 28, 2024 07:42am
He doesn't have to be a dictator. After four more years, one could convincingly argue the courts he'll have stacked will do it for him. At least in terms of policy implementation.

He seems to have been, if anything, emboldened by the (failed, for which I'm glad) attempt on his life. Unsurprising, given such pathological egomania.
 
D:1RP ( 5618.82 points)July 28, 2024 10:18am
I think being charitable you could say he was just saying that since he won't be able to run for another term he doesn't care what happens after that.
 
D:1RP ( 5618.82 points)August 01, 2024 05:33pm
I can't believe Trump's current strategy against Kamala is "She's not black!"
 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 9683.07 points)August 01, 2024 05:44pm
RP: I can't believe Trump's current strategy against Kamala is "She's not black!"

His team is really perplexed on how to campaign against her. And he hasn't totally moved on from Biden. They've lost the race to define her to America.
 
For:10038Luzerne County Historian ( -154.39 points)August 01, 2024 08:00pm
RP: I can't believe Trump's current strategy against Kamala is "She's not black!"

I think he just killed any chance he had of winning personally. It's gonna drive up voter turnout against him, especially in the cities.
 
D:11718Suedehead ( 0.00 points)August 02, 2024 07:19pm
Whole lot of guys who claimed 4 years ago that Biden (stupidly) saying "you ain't Black" was proof that the Democrat Party are the real racists suddenly eagerly parroting their leader claiming that Kamala isn't Black.
 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 9683.07 points)August 07, 2024 01:29pm
One thing I find interesting about the polling since Harris was swapped for Biden.

Biden consistently trailed in the multi-candidate horse race - even when he was tied or almost tied (+/- 1 pt) in the head to head.

Harris seems to be consistently ahead in the multi-candidate horse race - even when she is tied or almost tied (+/- 1 pt) in the head to head.

Curious to see how this impacts the dynamics of the race down the stretch. With Biden as the nominee, I think Trump wanted a multi-candidate race is most states - now I think he doesn't and I wonder if we will see some more attacks on Kennedy and the Libertarian nominee.
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