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  Measuring the Effects of Voter Identification Laws
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ContributorRP 
Last EditedRP  Jul 16, 2012 01:15pm
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CategoryAnalysis
AuthorNATE SILVER
News DateSunday, July 15, 2012 02:30:00 PM UTC0:0
DescriptionPennsylvania, for instance, went from having no voter ID laws to a strict photo ID requirement. Based on the academic studies, I estimate that this will reduce turnout by about 2.4 percent as a share of registered voters. And based on my formula to convert changes in turnout to changes in the popular vote, I estimate that this would reduce President Obama’s margin against Mitt Romney by a net of 1.2 percentage points.

Changes for other states are listed below; I exclude cases where changes in a voter ID law have been struck down by courts, or are pending approval by the Department of Justice. Note that, other than Pennsylvania, no swing states have passed major changes to voter ID laws, although others like Wisconsin have sought to pass laws that have been struck down.

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