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[Nate Silver] Rumors of the Democrats’ Demise in the Senate are Slightly Exaggerated
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Race
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| Contributor | J.R. |
| Last Edited | J.R. Apr 15, 2011 06:20am |
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| Category | Analysis |
| News Date | Friday, April 15, 2011 12:00:00 PM UTC0:0 |
| Description | Are Republicans favorites to take back the Senate next year?
For the time being, I’d say so. The simple fact that Democrats have 23 senators up for re-election in 2012 — compared to just 10 for the Republicans — tilts the playing field in the G.O.P.’s favor. And although both parties have had their share of retirement announcements, the Democrats’ — particularly Kent Conrad’s in North Dakota and Jeff Bingaman’s in New Mexico — have tended to come in more vulnerable seats.
But as I’ll aim to demonstrate for you, I don’t think the Republicans are terribly heavy favorites: instead just a wee bit above 50 percent.
By contrast, the political betting market Intrade gives Republicans a 66 percent chance of a takeover, which would require their winning either three seats and the presidency or four seats without it. And the buzz I’ve heard from some strategists — including some Democratic ones — is that the takeover is all but inevitable. |
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