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An Alarm Bell Goes Off For GOP in Mississippi
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Race
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| Contributor | RP |
| Last Edited | RP Apr 23, 2008 01:27pm |
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| Category | Analysis |
| News Date | Wednesday, April 23, 2008 07:00:00 PM UTC0:0 |
| Description | In yet another alarming sign for the GOP's prospect's this fall, last night Democrats came within an inch of stealing one of the most Republican districts in the Deep South. In the special election to replace now-Senator Roger Wicker in Mississippi's 1st Congressional District, Democrat Travis Childers fell just 400 votes short of the 50% plus one mark, which would have avoided a run-off and won the seat outright.
Still, Democrats are ecstatic that their candidate won 2,000 more votes overall than the Republican candidate, Southaven Mayor Greg Davis. With 100% of precincts reporting, Childers won 49.4% to Davis' 46.3%. Furthermore, when Childers' vote total is combined with the votes from the other Democrat on the ballot yesterday, Steve Holland, Democratic candidates garnered 50.6%.
That's no small feat in a district that should have been should have been an easy save for the GOP; Wicker won his first election in 1994 with 63% of the vote and only dipped below the two-thirds mark in the 2006 election, when he won 66%. President Bush won the area, based in the northwest quadrant of the state, with 62% in 2004, a twenty-five point margin.
In total, the GOP's failure to easily capture a once-safe seat in Mississippi should cost every House Republican strategist at least a few hours' sleep. Democrats are making strong plays for two Republican-held seats in the next three weeks -- for Baker's Louisiana district on May 3 and for Wicker's Mississippi seat on May 13 -- and if they win either, the mood of an already dour Republican caucus will sink still lower. Given recent polls and news from Louisiana, where Democrat Don Cazayoux appears to be in strong position against Republican Woody Jenkins, and given last night's results, the GOP faces the increasingly real prospect of losing both seats. |
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