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  NJ District 7
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > New Jersey > NJ - District 07
OfficeHouse of Representatives
Type General Election
Filing Deadline June 01, 2002 - 12:00am
Polls Open November 05, 2002 - 06:00am
Polls Close November 05, 2002 - 08:00pm
Term Start January 03, 2003 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2005 - 12:00pm
Turnout 28.27% Total Population
ContributorBarack O-blame-a
Last ModifiedBarack O-blame-a June 20, 2004 08:52pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description This marginally competitive House race features Freshman Rep. Mike Ferguson, a pro-life yet otherwise moderate Republican, versus Tim Carden, in a matchup of current vs. former political prodigies. Ferguson leads and has a much more friendly district than he had under the old lines, but a strong Democratic wave could still endanger Ferguson, who is unknown to about a fourth of the district.
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/07/2000
NameMichael A. "Mike" Ferguson Votes128,434 (51.58%)
Term01/03/2001 - 01/03/2003 Margin14,955 (+6.01%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/02/2004
NameMichael A. "Mike" Ferguson Votes162,597 (56.88%)
Term01/03/2005 - 01/03/2007 Margin43,516 (+15.22%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Jun 04, 2002 NJ District 07 - D Primary Tim Carden
MAP

Embed Code
202
KEY RACE? 0.0000000000 Average
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
10/10/2002 11/05/2002
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Michael A. "Mike" Ferguson 1 6 5 --
Leaning Call: Michael A. "Mike" Ferguson (100.00%)
Weighted Call: Michael A. "Mike" Ferguson (100.00%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph
08/24/2002 08/27/2002

CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name (I) Rep. Michael A. "Mike" Ferguson Tim Carden Darren Young  
PartyRepublican Democratic Libertarian  
Website [Website] [Website]  
Uncertified Votes106,055 (57.95%) 74,879 (40.92%) 2,068 (1.13%)  
Margin0 (0.00%) -31,176 (-17.04%) -103,987 (-56.82%)  
Predict Avg.53.28% 45.46% 1.26%  
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $--  
MATCHUP POLLS (1 from 1 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg37.15%-- 24.63%-- -0.79%--  
Benenson Strategy Group (D) 
08/24/02-08/27/02
35.00% -- 27.00% -- 2.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
R TurnerforCongress
  Home News Tribune (NJ)
  Easton Express-Times
  Courier News, The (NJ)
D Ex-New Jerseyan
D Stephen Yellin
  Star-Ledger (NJ)
  Princeton Packet
 

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Sep 03, 2002 10:42am General CNN-Early Achievers Clash in NJ House Race  Article Stephen Yellin 

DISCUSSION
[View All
18
Previous Messages]
 
D:10Stephen Yellin ( 777.2091 points)
Fri, October 11, 2002 02:57:44 AM UTC0:00
PolitixUSA, it was indeed a great day for me and for the Carden campaign when Torricelli dropped out. Democrats were going to stay home in droves this November, because many of us simply cannot vote for such an ethics-challanged man. Lautenburg excites the base, and will bring out a big vote in the Democratic parts of the district.

I didn't know about Ferguson's mailing campaign-whether it's good or not. I know that he's worried enough to run a negative ad against Tim, which goes like this:
"WAAAAA! I'M BEING ATTACKED! WAAAA!"
Not really-but you get the picture. Ferguson also sent out three "franked" mailing just before the deadline, costing taxpayers over $100,000 in the district.

The district may lean Republican, but most of its residents are Democrats. More Democrats live in the Edison area (Democratic by a wide margin always) than Republicans in Hunterdon County (a Republican bastion). That means the race will go down to Union and Somerset Counties-areas that are full of independents-and areas that are trending Democratic. If Ferguson wins this year, his seat could probably switch hands by the next redistricting. That's why "Fergie" is so eager to run against McGreevey in 2005. He wants out before he's kicked out. Unfortunatly, Tim is going to kick him out first.

 
I:13User 13 ( 1518.3322 points)
Sat, October 26, 2002 07:34:14 PM UTC0:00
Sorry Mr. Liberal - I have to change my pick in this race. I hope I am wrong though.


 
I:13User 13 ( 1518.3322 points)
Sun, October 27, 2002 01:55:17 AM UTC0:00
I agree with most of what you say Mr. Moderate. If Ferguson wins by 6 or more points and stays honest, Dems will have to do a some armtwisting to get a good candidate to run in '04.

Since the September there seems to be absolutely no news or polls from mainstream media or the campaigns. No analyst is picking this race as a toss-up. Am I right?

This leads me to believe the Dems aren't throwing money into this race and the GOP doesn't feel there is a serious threat to Ferguson.

If he survives until 2010, he will probably be a senior enough Republican in the state's delegation to secure his seat's boundries - but unusual is the operative word in your statement.

"Unusual" seems to be the norm in Jersey politics.

 
D:10Stephen Yellin ( 777.2091 points)
Sun, October 27, 2002 05:27:43 PM UTC0:00
The Star-Ledger came out with the district's political makeup in its election guide. The results are:

Independents-55.1%
Republicans-23.9%
Democrats-21%

Not very impressive for a Republican. If Carden were to win the same amount of support from Democrats as Ferguson got from Republicans (about 90%), then he'd only need 50.6% of Independent voters.

Tim is a strong candidate, and is running a strong campaign. There is no Green party candidate this year, so the combined 51% for Gore and Nader would mostly go to Tim (around 40% of it certainly). Low to mid double-digits? Get real. You mean that Ferguson will get from 55-58%? If Tim were to win just 40% of Independents, and 85% of Democrats/Greens, then he still gets 45%. And trust me-Tim is strong with Independents.

There have been no polls on the race, but Tim has raised well over a million dollars, and we're getting plenty of support from the State and National Democrats. I agree, if Ferguson wins by a good margin this year, he'll be around for as long as he wants.

Your talk of a 30-40% margin in the future is like myself saying that McGreevey will break 60% in 2005. Non, Monsieur, c'est foux. (No, sir, it's foolish). Just remember that the district is only getting more Democratic, not less, so Ferguson's margins may actually decrease with time.

I saw the debate between Ferguson and Carden today, on NJN. I felt that Tim looked haggard, and that Ferguson's main line of counterattack is "He's trailing, so he's desperate". Yet there have been no polls in the race, so how can we know Tim is trailing? Tim constantly jabbed Ferguson on issue after issue, and Ferguson compared Tim to Hillary Clinton.

Honestly, Tim was helped out by the moderate, Michael Aron. Aron pointed out several innaccuracies in Ferguson's statements, and, in my opinion, he was not very fair at all (he was biased towards Tim, I think).

Here's one segment of the debate:

Ferguson: And I have been endorsed by the UAW and the CVW...
Carden: No, Mike, you got a 0% rating from the UAW, and they endorsed ME (his emphasis).
F: You're wrong, you're wrong...
Aron: Actually, Tim's right here, Congressman.
F: That's right, that's right...

I honestly thought that if Tim hadn't looked like a ghost, he would have been the winner. But looks decided a lot of things, and so I think the debate was a draw.

The NY Times poll has Lautenburg up 48-36. Lautenburg leads by a large margin in Union County, is ahead 45-42 in the rest of the district, and is very strong in Woodbridge and Edison-two towns Carden needs to win big. Lautenburg also leads 56-26 in Bergen and Passaic Counties, areas where Anne Sumers is running.

If Lautenburg has coatails, then Carden has a good chance at an upset.


 
D:10Stephen Yellin ( 777.2091 points)
Thu, October 31, 2002 03:57:15 AM UTC0:00
Tim now leads in the newspaper endorsement race, and got both top papers in his column-the Times and the Star Ledger. Both get enormous readership in the district. The Packet may be from Princeton, but its coverage goes into Hunterdon and Somerset Counties as well.

I still think Ferguson will win, but the margin will be under 55%.

 
D:10Stephen Yellin ( 777.2091 points)
Fri, November 1, 2002 02:08:39 AM UTC0:00
I think, Mr. Moderate, that it's the main paper in Princeton. Don't quote me on that, though. Also, the Courier-News usually supports Republicans, while the Times backed Bob Franks in 2000 for the Senate. The Packet endorsed Holt and Carden, but also, I think, Saxton and Smith.

Our tracking polls are showing this race to be very close. We have a fine turnout operation going in Union and Middlesex Counties, and our independent targeting is working. I still don't think we'll win, but I'm convinced Ferguson won't break 55%. I'll make a bet with you on that, Mr. Moderate. You pick the wager.

As for myself, I have mailed 50 letters to fellow classmates at my high school, asking them to show the letters to their parents. Personal contact, as you know, is excellent in winning votes. My teachers are now backing Tim, and so are my doctor and barber.

I'm considering a run for the Board of Education in my home town. I'm studying the issues after the election, but it seems so far that the Board is stumbling badly on several key education issues in my town.

 
I:131Hamilton ( 0.0000 points)
Fri, November 1, 2002 09:16:10 PM UTC0:00
Gentleman, I think Friday's Home News Tribune endorsment of Ferguson hit the nail on the head -- Carden has dropped the ball on this election by running so far to the left. The editorial said he's liberal big spender. Plus Ferguson keeps saying Carden supports tax increases. By running to the left, Carden created an opening for Ferguson to move beyond his base on the right and capture the center.

I saw one of the debates on tv, and Carden didn't come across too well, rather than sticking to one issue or theme and criticizing Ferguson, he attacked Ferguson on every issue. And Carden didn't look too well -- does he have a nervous tick?

 
D:3Moof ( 735.3791 points)
Sat, November 2, 2002 03:37:52 PM UTC0:00
LOL - Oh, that's great, Mr. Moderate! I bet even a tiny little dollar is enough to open the floodgates of party brochures and political mailers. Then they' probably sell my mailing info to Pat Robertson, or Falwell, or something. I know that if I lost that bet, the worst part about it would be all the right-wing promotional material I'd start getting. That's perfect!

 
D:10Stephen Yellin ( 777.2091 points)
Sat, November 2, 2002 04:42:54 PM UTC0:00
Sorry, Mr. Moderate, I can't do that-being 14, I'm not old enough to make a donation to anyone. How about making a phone call by the loser to the opposite candidate's HQ, congratulating them? Tim's phone number is 908-317-9470.

By the way, the floodgates of material I'd get, I wouldn't mind. It's fun getting mail from crackpots :)

 
D:3Moof ( 735.3791 points)
Sat, November 2, 2002 06:58:16 PM UTC0:00
Boy, it irritates the hell out of me. I went to a Christian College (very right-wing, work for tuition, etc.) and they've since sold our contact information to some of those nuts and it just galls me.

 
D:10Stephen Yellin ( 777.2091 points)
Sat, November 2, 2002 07:01:25 PM UTC0:00
The DCCC sent me an E-Mail today, saying that this race "all goes down to turnout", and suggests that I send E-Postcards to all I know telling them to vote (Democratic).

 
I:13User 13 ( 1518.3322 points)
Wed, November 6, 2002 06:20:58 PM UTC0:00
Congratluations Mr. Moderate. An impressive victory for Ferguson.

 
Reg:16None Entered ( 1178.9144 points)
Thu, November 7, 2002 01:46:01 PM UTC0:00
Those results left me pie-eyed.

 
D:10Stephen Yellin ( 777.2091 points)
Sun, June 22, 2003 07:42:38 PM UTC0:00
Looking back on this race, it's clear that Tim wasn't able to put together a winning coalition. For one thing, Ferguson outspent Tim by a 3-1 margin, which allowed him to bombard the district with mailings and TV ads. I got 14 Ferguson brochures at my house (my dad is an independent), to just 6 from Carden. Also, Tim IS a liberal, and damn proud of it too. He's an idealist, and I was proud to work for his campaign.

I think Ferguson was considered safe after the election, but now with the FEC fine and the "Georgetown Hijink" (my friend calls it that), we're not going to let him have a free ride. Tyrone Ross, a wealthy businessman from Summit, is gearing up to challenge Ferguson, although I'd back Tim in a heartbeat if he runs again.

The potential 800-pound gorilla in this race could be Mike Murphy. If he runs, this race will be close.