| DISCUSSION |
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This will be the contest to watch as both political parties will be putting lots of resources into NC.
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| Un:9757 | BrentinCO ( 6338.62 points) | March 04, 2020 05:27pm |
Dylan is going bold here.
I have a theory that North Carolina could become the new Virginia (or new Colorado) this fall - major Dem gains statewide due to demographic shifts and the Republican Party not speaking the language of the suburbs.
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I hope you're right about the NC Dems winning down-ballot statewide offices including Lieutenant Governor, Labor Commissioner.
The big question is whether they can flip both chambers of the NC General Assembly ?
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| D:8509 | DylanSH99 ( 1716.13 points) | March 04, 2020 06:31pm |
I think as of right now, it'll be a bit bigger than expected, especially if Biden is the nominee, but we'll see what happens.
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| D:8509 | DylanSH99 ( 1716.13 points) | March 04, 2020 06:32pm |
As of right now, I'd think Cunningham would win by 8 points but don't quote me here.
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| D:1 | RP ( 5506.72 points) | March 05, 2020 11:44am |
I can see him winning, but by 8 points?
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| I:1038 | WA Indy ( 1790.97 points) | March 05, 2020 04:55pm |
RP: I can see him winning, but by 8 points?
Hagan won by roughly that margin against an incumbent in 2008.
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We'll have to wait to see how the campaign goes.
I have concerns about Cunningham Vs Tillis but the overall weakness of Tillis will probably supersede any of those concerns...
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| D:8509 | DylanSH99 ( 1716.13 points) | March 05, 2020 08:51pm |
As of right now I'd say around 8 points but obviously going to change as the rest of the year goes.
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The Senate race is going to following the presidential race is North Carolina. At the federal level, ticket splitting is becoming an archaic practice.
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| D:1 | RP ( 5506.72 points) | March 12, 2020 12:18pm |
Releasing a 2-month old internal poll showing you up only 4 points and significantly under 50% to counter the recent Marist poll does not inspire confidence.
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I concur with the sentiment expressed here. The NC US Senate contest will likely the result of the Presidential contest in NC.
Big question is whether we will ticket splitting or something different ?
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Ain't looking good for Cal
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| Un:9757 | BrentinCO ( 6338.62 points) | April 15, 2020 05:43pm |
E Pluribus Unum: Ain't looking good for Cal
Disagree. He's down 4 points in a Republican poll that the incumbent is polling double digits below 50%.
In more reputable polls he is tied or ahead.
He's in a great position at this stage of the game for a challenger.
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BrentinCO: Disagree. He's down 4 points in a Republican poll that the incumbent is polling double digits below 50%.
In more reputable polls he is tied or ahead.
He's in a great position at this stage of the game for a challenger.
Maybe, but Kay Hagan was doing better in the polls and still ended up losing so we;ll wait and see
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| R:7114 | Kyle ( 752.36 points) | April 16, 2020 10:31am |
E Pluribus Unum: Ain't looking good for Cal
Totally agree with Brent. Tillis has been in the low-40's or less in most polls. Additionally, I think the fact that Cooper is so popular is bad for Tillis (because there will already be crossover Trump/Cooper voters who may be willing to vote for Cunningham that wouldn't if Cooper wasn't up for reelection.)
Also, there are duplicates on both the senate and governor polls if someone could fix that.
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Kyle:
Totally agree with Brent. Tillis has been in the low-40's or less in most polls. Additionally, I think the fact that Cooper is so popular is bad for Tillis (because there will already be crossover Trump/Cooper voters who may be willing to vote for Cunningham that wouldn't if Cooper wasn't up for reelection.)
I doubt that. Trump has given Thom his seal of approval so there won't be that many Trump/Cunningham Voters.
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North Carolina still often has a lot of split-ticket voters. And with as close as the presidential election will likely be in this state, you wouldn't need many Trump/Cunningham voters for Cunningham to win.
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| Un:9757 | BrentinCO ( 6338.62 points) | May 05, 2020 03:05pm |
I know Thom Tillis has his own problems in NC, but I wonder if Burr and Burr's insider trading issues are dragging down Tillis too.
Can anyone think of a case where one Senator of the same party was punished by voters for the "sins" of another senator of the same party?
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Minnesota in 1978 when the DFL was swept comes to mind. But, I think the premise is slightly different. In 1978 both senate seats were contested unlike this year in NC, where Tillis is the only one.
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ThatAlabamaGuy: Minnesota in 1978 when the DFL was swept comes to mind. But, I think the premise is slightly different. In 1978 both senate seats were contested unlike this year in NC, where Tillis is the only one.
Tillis was already weak, Burr probably just put another hole in his hypothetical Titanic
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| D:6454 | Mr. Matt ( 1761.47 points) | May 05, 2020 09:19pm |
Not completely the same but in NJ in 1990, Bill Bradley almost lost his Senate seat due to the backlash against Gov. Jim Florio's state tax hikes to some little-known county-level pol named Christine Whitman.
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| D:1 | RP ( 5506.72 points) | September 23, 2020 10:49am |
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| I:1038 | WA Indy ( 1790.97 points) | September 23, 2020 11:48am |
I remember college roommates gleefully puffing about how marijuana would be legal nationally by 2014/5. I wonder what they're smoking now.
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| D:9362 | An_62190 ( 651.59 points) | October 02, 2020 10:56pm |
?s=20 well...
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