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President Donald Trump is targeting a trio of states that he lost in 2016 — a move aimed at widening his path to reelection that comes as he’s struggling in the Rust Belt states that propelled him to the White House.
[Link] Trump officials are zeroing in on New Mexico, Nevada and New Hampshire, where they insist there’s an opening despite heavy losses Republicans suffered there in the midterms. They’ve deployed around a half-dozen staffers to New Hampshire and several to Nevada, an unusually early investment in places that favor Democrats. And the campaign is doing polling to tease out Trump’s level of support in New Mexico, a focal point for campaign manager Brad Parscale, and they have discussed dispatching aides to the blue state. | |||
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My Logic: - I'll give DEMs Trump States PA MI and WI even though I think they will all be close and DEMs will need to fight for all. I don't see DEMS winning all of them, but for arguments sake give them to the DEM. - FL, AZ, are pipe dreams for Dems. Despite the hopes to flip FL to blue, its getting redder. You only need to look at the last Governors race to see evidence of that. And DeSantis is very popular and will be a factor. AZ had a DEM victory last cycle at the SEN level, but it was small in an off year election. This is still a RED state at every other level. - OH, DEMs have hopes, but like FL seems to be getting redder with Trump. - NV always seems to vote for the winning President. The only time it hasn't was in 2016 and then you have to go back to 1908 to find another example. [Link] - NM and NH are in play, if he wins both he wins re-election. - The biggest element of my electoral logic is that Dems will not be united heading into 2020. If Biden is the nominee, enough of the extreme left will not vote or depress turn-out in MI and WI putting them back into play for Trump. The extreme left is going cause problems. There is enough evidence of that on this board alone. If Bernie is not the nominee, that will be unacceptable to some an depress Dem turnout again. AOC will be an influencer and be unhappy. Its not in her character to tow the party line. I predict there's a strong chance she doesn't even go to the 2020 Dem Convention. - Trump wins because while 10-15% of Republicans may not be happy with Trump, they will still vote for him in the states that matter to give him an electoral victory. - The BIG QUESTION mark I have about Republican turnout will be the effect of the abortion ban legislation on some Rep voters. I have a theory that some suburban/urban REP voters (+ libertarian REP voters) may feel this goes too far even if they are opposed to abortion. This may be strong enough to vote another way on election day in the privacy of the polling booth. If it turns out to be true, still don't know if its enough to turn AZ, NC, GA, or FL blue. 
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We also see this in the midterm results. The states that Clinton barely won, such as Minnesota and Nevada, saw big Democratic wins on election night. Nevada Dems flipped every statewide office except one from red to blue and has increased their strength through the state legislature. Democrats also had good nights in Midwestern Obama/Trump states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and especially Pennsylvania, and I wouldn't just chalk it up to a high-turnout Democratic midterm year, as turnout was high among both Democrats and Republicans (the highest since 1914). Winning these states back is still easier said than done (especially in Wisconsin), but the Democrats will definitely be taking these seats seriously to avoid what happened last time around. Trump's campaign can try, but there's absolutely no chance Trump wins New Mexico, a state with solid Democratic majorities in the state legislature with all-Democratic congressional representation and nearly every statewide candidate winning re-election by double digits in 2020. And Gary Johnson was irrelevant, just as he was in 2018 when Heinrich still won with well over 50% of the vote while Johnson took in 15%. He has a better chance in New Hampshire, but again, I don't see him flipping any states Clinton won in 2016. | ||||
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BrentinCO: The biggest element of my electoral logic is that Dems will not be united heading into 2020.
There is no greater unifying force for Democrats than Donald Trump. There might be some difference in enthusiasm between Biden and say Harris, but I think there will be alot of Trump fatigue and voters outside of Trump's base will not want him on the news every day until 2025. | |||
Hikikomori Blitzkrieg!: He barely lost New Hampshire, and Gary Jonhson's not being on the ballot next year (presumably) may put New Mexico into play as well. But Nevada's a lost cause....or if Nevada is in play, then the Democrats are screwed.
Nevada was far closer than New Mexico and Trump would have to basically win all of Johnson's voters to win New Mexico. Which is unlikely because for example the recent Michigan poll has Libertarian Amash taking more votes from Biden than Trump. NM is the most unlikely of these 3 to flip. | ||||
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CA Pol Junkie: There is no greater unifying force for Democrats than Donald Trump. There might be some difference in enthusiasm between Biden and say Harris, but I think there will be alot of Trump fatigue and voters outside of Trump's base will not want him on the news every day until 2025.
I’ll change my tune when I see Bernie supporters put party above candidate. | |||
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Natalie: To be fair (to me, at least), I'm an Independent, so I have no party to bow down to
Accepted. Curious. Speculative question. If Biden gets the nomination and AOC urges all her supporters to vote for Biden, as a leftist-leaning independent AOC supporter will you follow her in an effort to stop a Trump 2nd term? or will you look for an another candidate closer to your political views? | |||
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FL, I don't think you can say is getting redder. Yes, the GOP flipped a Senate seat and kept the governor's mansion, but by the skin of their teeth. OH is getting redder and arguably has always had a reddish hue even if victorious Democrats have been able to win it. NV is arguably getting bluer, it's probably closer to New Mexico now than to New Hampshire or Arizona. It may have been a bellweather in every recent election but 2016, but Missouri was a bellweather until 2008 and we've seen how that's gone. I get your argument that the Democrats may not be united, it's the constant media narrative that Democrats fight one another, but 80-85% of the primary electorate is currently behind a registered Democratic party member and the remainder likely fall in line. And Trump may own the GOP base, but a number of other right-leaning voters will need another reason to turn out and hold their noses. Barring another open Supreme Court seat, I don't know what more Trump can throw to them if they're still on the fence. Preemptive ugh if I haven't addressed any typos. | |||
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BrentinCO: <q 9775="">To be fair (to me, at least), I'm an Independent, so I have no party to bow down to
Accepted. Curious. Speculative question. If Biden gets the nomination and AOC urges all her supporters to vote for Biden, as a leftist-leaning independent AOC supporter will you follow her in an effort to stop a Trump 2nd term? or will you look for an another candidate closer to your political views? The former. Believe it or not, there are actually a few establishment candidates I'd vote for should they be the nominee, but none of them are Biden | |||
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My predictions for 2020. | |||
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WA Indy:
FL, I don't think you can say is getting redder. Yes, the GOP flipped a Senate seat and kept the governor's mansion, but by the skin of their teeth. OH is getting redder and arguably has always had a reddish hue even if victorious Democrats have been able to win it. True. But in the perspective of a Blue Wave across the country, Republican performance in Florida was notable and can’t be underestimated in the next election. | |||
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BrentinCO: True. But in the perspective of a Blue Wave across the country, Republican performance in Florida was notable and can’t be underestimated in the next election.
How much of the Republicans success in Florida in 2018 was from Rick Scott's voter turnout machine and will that machine still be in place in 2020? | |||
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CA Pol Junkie: How much of the Republicans success in Florida in 2018 was from Rick Scott's voter turnout machine and will that machine still be in place in 2020?
I didn’t know that 2018 was contributed to Rick Scott’s turnout machine. Interesting. RP: Although it has methodology problems, the Morning Consult poll has Trump largely maintaining his approval rating in Florida since the beginning of his presidency while it has dramatically dropped just about everywhere else including many red states.
Interesting X2. Something is happening in Florida. I would have expected it to trend more blue, but in 2018 I was genuinely surprised by the results. I’ll have to check the cross tabs of the polling. | |||
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Florida is a lost cause. It doesn't matter if the Democrats run someone who's white, black, moderate, liberal, whatever. That state is made up of 50.0001% right-wingers who are locked in their ways. The only thing changing that is a future Great Dying. | |||
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WA Indy: Much as I love the phrase "future Great Dying," I really have to disagree with Florida being a lock for the GOP or a lost cause for the Democrats. It's not Missouri. Every GOP statewide official won by 6 points or fewer. The CFO only won by 3.5% and we know how small the margins were for Scott and DeSantis. Obama won it twice, albeit by 50.01% in 2012, and it's battleground status isn't lost because the GOP has done a good job at the state level.
I don't think its a lost cause for Dems or Lock for the GOP. I'm saying that when all votes are counted, at this point, I expect it to be in the Republican column. | |||
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Republicans: 126 | ||||
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politicaltracker4096: Democrats: 412
Republicans: 126 You forgot the Omaha congressional district, giving Democrats 413. This is in all seriousness a plausible outcome. Most people at OC haven't been around for a realignment election or just a lopsided outcome like 1980-1988. We already have the most hated president in modern history - if Democrats nominate someone likeable/charismatic or if there is a recession then states like AZ, TX, and GA will go blue along with all the swing states. | |||
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