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I may not be fully correct on that but Sifton being a state Sen & Kunce putting himself out there should have some effect? | ||||
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this is the lower profile seat compared to what'll likely happen in 2 years when some candidates run and raise money because of people who dislike Hawley | |||
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This primary feels like a race to 30% among a bunch of candidates who could fail to reach 10% | |||
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I get the impression that the Greitens custody story got Busch Valentine off the fence late in the filing season. I didn't know until today that the Busch family (as in Anheuser-Busch) has had an interesting history (I'm not from the St. Louis side of Missouri). Busch Valentine is a daughter of Gussie Busch (who was the chairman of A-B from 1949 to 1975). Gussie had 11 children by 3 wives. The youngest was born in 1966. In 1975, Gussie's son August III ("Auggie") led a boardroom coup to take the CEO/Chairman role in response to Gussie becoming "difficult to work with" due to his grief over the death of his youngest child (she died in a car accident on her way home from school). Eventually Anheuser-Busch was taken over by InBev, a Belgian company. Divisions in the Busch family were a factor in that takeover. A-B has been a division of InBev since 2008. Trudy likely has a lot of money of some amount. I guess she's technically a beer heiress even with InBev controlling what used to be her family's business. Auggie and Trudy have different mothers and that Auggie's son August IV was the Chairman when InBev took it over, so Trudy's an heiress who really wasn't that high in the order of succession in 2008. From what I hear, A-B has a good reputation in regards to unions (it is "Union-made beer" afterall), which avoids one complication from running a rich self funder in a Democratic primary. Having a nominee who was never elected to anything is a rare thing for Missouri Democrats in a Governor or Senate primary. I think whoever wins this primary is technically an 'outsider', which might have some upside in a general election. But it would have more upside in a better year for Dems. Really, if she has the money to spend, a reasonable step one is "tell your story and be positive" to try and win the primary and stick out from the expected fracas in the R primary. Then if Greitens wins, or there's an acrimonious campaign, then in the best case scenario for Dems, they have a candidate with good name ID to try and pull off an upset. Similar advice for a primary could apply to any other Dem candidate who can go on the air before August. Just going heavy on "Greitens is awful" without really establishing positive name ID would be a dumb use of money. | |||
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I did watch the Major League Baseball all-star game last week where both Valentine and Kunce aired positive ads. So I'd imagine they've both spent their fair share. And now this week there's a scuffle involving various negative ads. Kunce airing ads about TBV taking part in the Veiled Prophets Ball (it's a weird St. Louis thing) and TBV airing an ad about Kunce's stances when he was running for office in 2006 (which inspired a Cease and Desist call from Kunce's campaign) I'm sure this isn't the first time that VoteSmart's NPAT has inspired a commercial (even if they don't like candidates doing that). Also there's various squabbles with candidates accusing others of not wanting to debate. But I can't really predict things right now. | |||
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