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For Republicans is obviously Jones (AL) with Shaheen (NH) and Warner (VA). Doesn’t seem like alot of competitive races unless we get retirements out of Roberts (KS) and Lamar (TN) which would probably still favor th GOP. Thoughts? | |||
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But my board is.. Arizona (Stanton or Kirkpatrick) / Colorado (Jason Crow or Perlmutter) top two Then a few where the hope is that 2 of them stick Georgia (One of the random kids from 2014 [Carter/Nunn] or Ossoff or whoever, not sure if McBath can run and have Ds retain her seat) Iowa (I think Ds would have a better shot of retaining an open IA03 than open IA01, or have Hubbell run against Ernst too) Maine (Pingree vs Susan Collins, I suspect Collins voting record will veer left with 53 Rs in the Senate and her re-elect coming up. If Collins retires, it's a pickup) North Carolina (exhume Brad Miller from wherever he went since 2012? maybe voters get amped for Larry Kissell or Dan McCready? bring back Deb Ross?) Texas (Try to ride a wave against the less notable Texas Senator? Hope that Andrew White doesn't lose a primary this time?) I'd think that Kansas/Tennessee won't make the board even with a retirement. Unless Kris Kobach wins the nomination to replace Roberts. In that case, the local equivalent to Travis Childers would need to be kept ready since they can't just replace a nominee. States like Kentucky, West Virginia (only if Moore Capito decides to bail after a term for whatever reason), Nebraska (if Sasse gets primaried by a nut) or Montana (if Bullock runs) are long shots. I think Alabama flips back to the Rs. Short of a total disaster in their nomination process again. The Republican effort in New Hampshire would involve trying to get Sununu against Shaheen. If he goes for a third term, then they go to Ayotte. If neither runs, they're kinda way behind there. Unless they get Gatsas or someone to take the spot. Virginia is a state that is sorta sprinting away from Rs. They haven't won a statewide race there since 2009 and those three Rs haven't had a great last decade. Ds need 3 net pickups and a Presidential win to get a majority. Barring some miracle outcome in Florida or something that flips an unexpected seat from R to D in the next 2 years. If Nelson had won (I think trailing by 5 digits isn't particularly likely to win via recount).. then it's 2 seats and the Presidency which is much more doable with the 2020 lineup. | |||
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ME, AZ, CO, IA, and NC will be targets for Democrats, obviously they will lose AL and Republicans will try for NH. It's at least a more favorable map for Democrats than they had this year. | |||
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That being said, the Senate side should be better just based purely on the numbers. 2014 went about as badly as it possibly could, so there are limited options for the GOP to make gains beyond Alabama. | |||
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RBH: Colorado (Jason Crow or Perlmutter) top two
Good analysis. On CO, I’ve been thinking Perlmutter is getting tired of the House and looking for a change (as evidenced by his contemplation of running for Governor). Two other strong contendors to your list would be Joe Neguese and former Speaker Crisanta Duran. Given the blue wave that hit Colorado this year, I’m sure there will be no shortage of Democrats thinking about jumping in. | |||
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Nothing against Masto, but from what little I've seen of her she has the charisma of a paper bag and Laxalt, while he'd fall in line 98% of the time while presenting himself as a rational moderate, doesn't come off as an offensive candidate. Fetterman may as well be an incumbent at this point. He's not going to runaway with it or get Casey margins but I have a hard time seeing him lose. It's sad that Georgia is a toss-up, but tons of Republicans would vote for a dead dog if it had a Trump endorsement. If this were the 90s, I'd have OH before WI, but unless Ryan proves to have some crossover appeal in a red state, it ain't happening. The last 5 will all be heartbreakingly close, but I don't see them flipping at the moment. | |||
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Strong Confidence in NH, CO, AZ going to Democrats NV, PA probably going to Democrats GA, WI true tossups NC close by likely Republican OH will tease Democrats for a few more months then in October start looking like a total blowout. | |||
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I know that EPU is a big Fetterman supporter. I have seen Fetterman in various capacities, going back to the debates in 2018. He may make a fine Senator, but I doubt he will "fix" the Senate like his ads claim. At this point I think Fetterman will likely win in the 5-7% range. It's possible that Ronald Johnson will skim off 5% of the Republican vote that would otherwise have made this race tight. | |||
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44. Connecticut 45. Washington 46. Colorado 47. New Hampshire 48. Arizona 49. Pennsylvania 50. Georgia 51. Nevada 52. Wisconsin 53. Ohio 54. North Carolina 55. Florida 56. Missouri 57. Utah Other people thoughts? | ||||
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More recent statewide victories for Ds in NC than OH. | |||
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