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[Link] This A- Pollster (according to 538) shows every Republican within striking distance of winning: Gov, US Sen, 4 Congressional seats. Amodei is leading comfortably. Dems leading all others between 2 - 4 points (within margin). While its not likely to happen - if there is a Red wave, Republicans could go 6-0. | |||
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BrentinCO: Emerson Polls just posted on our site pretty interesting.
[Link] This A- Pollster (according to 538) shows every Republican within striking distance of winning: Gov, US Sen, 4 Congressional seats. Amodei is leading comfortably. Dems leading all others between 2 - 4 points (within margin). While its not likely to happen - if there is a Red wave, Republicans could go 6-0. Dina Titus wasn't wrong about Democrats really, really badly screwing up Congressional redistricting here. | |||
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Jason: I've wondered if there was a way to draw a Democratic-leaning district in western Nevada that unites Reno with parts of Clark county, leaving one northeastern hellscape of a Wyoming-esque Republican district for Amodei. Seems like a better way of coming up with the 3-1 split than what they actually finalized.
I’m currently laid up with COVID and have nothing better to do, so I decided to take you up on this challenge with Dave’s Redistricting App. The answer is yes, you can: [Link] TL;DR: it covers all the rural hellscape parts of the state, swings down to Primm/Jean, includes Sparks/the redder parts of Reno, and finally pulls in Boulder City/part of Henderson/Centennial Hills/Southern Highlands/a little bit of Summerlin. It’s 70 people over perfectly equal distribution and is 60.3% R - 34.5% D - 5.1% Other over the last four years of elections, leaving three other districts that if drawn equally would be 55.6% D - 39.2% R - 5.2% Other. Democrats need to try harder next time. | |||
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IndyGeorgia: Does this mean they are confident of winning or they are giving up? I feel like you wouldn't be in either position.
Given the history of how close some of the house races are you think it would be odd to not fund. Also consider some of the optics around early voting - would seem to be worrying for Democrats. But on the flip side Lee, Horsford and Titus all have signficant money edges on their opponents. So maybe they don't need extra money. Horsford is the one I'd say is most vulnerable given the quality of his opponent, but in the October filing he lead his opponent by a 5:1.5 margin in both receipts and spending. | |||