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  IA US President
  RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Iowa > President
Parent RaceUS President - Popular Vote
Office
TypeGeneral Election
Filing Deadline February 06, 2024 - 12:00pm
Polls Open November 05, 2024 - 07:00am
Polls Close November 05, 2024 - 08:00pm
Term Start January 20, 2025 - 12:00pm
Term End January 20, 2029 - 12:00pm
ContributorRP
Last Modifiedev December 02, 2024 11:17am
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
PartyRepublican Won11/03/2020
NameDonald J. Trump Votes897,672 (53.09%)
Term01/20/2021 - 01/20/2025 Margin138,611 (+8.20%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Jan 15, 2024 IA US President - R Caucus Donald J. Trump
Jan 15, 2024 IA US President - LBT Caucus Chase Oliver
Mar 05, 2024 IA US President - D Caucus Joe Biden
COUNTY-LEVEL RESULTS
KEY RACE? 0.0000000000 Average
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Donald J. Trump
Safe 6
Strong 10
Lean 11
Slight 4
Tossup
1
Kamala Harris
Slight 4
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH

07/13/2022 11/03/2024

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Donald J. Trump Kamala Harris Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Chase Oliver (W) Write-In Claudia De la Cruz Shiva Ayyadurai
PartyRepublican Democratic We The People Libertarian Nonpartisan Socialism and Liberation Independent
Votes927,019 (55.73%) 707,278 (42.52%) 13,122 (0.79%) 7,218 (0.43%) 6,657 (0.40%) 1,427 (0.09%) 424 (0.03%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -219,741 (-13.21%) -913,897 (-54.94%) -919,801 (-55.29%) -920,362 (-55.33%) -925,592 (-55.64%) -926,595 (-55.70%)
Predict Avg.53.10% 45.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Finances$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
MATCHUP POLLS
InsiderAdvantage 
11/02-11/03
52.40% (+0.0) 45.60% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
SoCal Research 
11/02-11/03
50.00% (+0.0) 43.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
Emerson College 
11/01-11/02
53.90% (+5.9) 44.80% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
Selzer & Co. 
10/28-10/31
44.00% (-3.0) 47.00% (+4.0) 3.00% (-3.0) 0.00% (-1.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
Cygnal (R) 
09/27-09/28
51.00% (+0.0) 45.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
Selzer & Co. 
09/08-09/11
47.00% (-3.0) 43.00% (+0.0) 6.00% (-3.0) 1.00% (-1.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0) 0.00% (+0.0)
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
R Joshua Smith [L]
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo
Name William "Doc" Stodden
PartySocialist
Votes361 (0.02%)
Margin-926,658 (-55.71%)
Predict Avg.0.00%
Finances$0.00
MATCHUP POLLS
InsiderAdvantage 
11/02-11/03
0.00% (+0.0)
SoCal Research 
11/02-11/03
0.00% (+0.0)
Emerson College 
11/01-11/02
0.00% (+0.0)
Selzer & Co. 
10/28-10/31
0.00% (+0.0)
Cygnal (R) 
09/27-09/28
0.00% (+0.0)
Selzer & Co. 
09/08-09/11
0.00% (+0.0)
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor

DISCUSSION
[View Previous Messages In This Discussion (76 Previous)]
 
D:1RP ( 5639.51 points)November 04, 2024 08:36am
Yeah, it was Republicans who were praising Selzer in 2016 when she caught the movement TO Trump nobody else did and she was exactly right. Then again in 2020 when she saw it as a better race for Trump than anyone else was saying and again got it exactly right. We praise her not because she gives results better for the Democrats but the opposite, gets the REAL results, and succeeds where so many pollsters failed in the bad years. She could be off, like any pollster can, but when Selzer comes out with an outlier poll in Iowa you better listen.

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 735.02 points)November 05, 2024 12:45pm
If this poll is accurate, then Kamala is about to be elected in a huge landslide. It's weird none of the other polling firms have detected such a looming outcome, but enjoy being manipulated, I guess.
Trump's gonna win Iowa; it's not going to be close.

 
D:6086Jason ( 13474.04 points)November 05, 2024 09:50pm
Trump up 14 points with 66% in. Selzer with a big miss this cycle.

 
W:11230Arthur ( 527.02 points)November 06, 2024 04:59am
Selzer is done.

 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 9685.29 points)November 06, 2024 08:18am
Arthur: Selzer is done.

Agreed. Not even close to being a reality.

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 5449.93 points)November 06, 2024 08:40am
Arthur: Selzer is done.

She said in an interview after her poll that one day her methodology may fail and she will explode into a thousand pieces. I'd say that happened.

 
MKKP:11457The Fixer ( 53.61 points)November 13, 2024 07:15pm
I wish there was a way to upload images on from my PC on here. I have a Discord message of mine where I predicted IA by margin by 13.5% right after Selzer poll. I was only off 0.3%.

 
MKKP:11457The Fixer ( 53.61 points)December 15, 2024 01:23pm
WTF!!!!


 
D:6086Jason ( 13474.04 points)December 15, 2024 06:24pm
Delusional.

 
LPP:10973Patrick ( 1.74 points)December 17, 2024 09:36am
Didn't she retire? Why is she still giving interviews this is just feeding trolls.

 
MKKP:11457The Fixer ( 53.61 points)December 17, 2024 11:32am
Patrick: Didn't she retire? Why is she still giving interviews this is just feeding trolls.

She retired after her colossal poll failure

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