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USER DETAILS
Screen NameJason   
NameJason
LocationTustin, ,
Email
BirthdaySeptember 11, 1989
AffiliationDemocratic
First LoginAugust 11, 2007 12:06am
Last LoginMay 16, 2021 01:10am
Predictions Points: 10139.3525
Predictions: 10040/10902 (92.09%)
Points Per: 10139.3525/10902 (0.93)
Emote Messages 3,260
DISCUSSION
 
D:6086Jason ( 10139.35 points)
April 24, 2021 01:45pm
I am the walrus.
Candidate

 
D:6086Jason ( 10139.35 points)
February 14, 2021 11:11am
Surely a ban on cannabis for residents of a ****hole like South Dakota crosses the threshold of violating the 8th Amendment.
Race

 
D:6086Jason ( 10139.35 points)
February 05, 2021 11:43am
This is the most truthful thing Greene has ever said.
Party

 
D:6086Jason ( 10139.35 points)
January 28, 2021 12:59pm
It doesn't matter who runs here. Florida might as well be Wyoming for the Democratic Party.
Race

 
D:6086Jason ( 10139.35 points)
January 06, 2021 10:52pm
I don't know if the reports are true, but that's never stopped me from spouting bull**** before.
Candidate

 
D:6086Jason ( 10139.35 points)
January 05, 2021 08:52am
Poll isn't loading for me, but 2 Republicans.

I'm ready to be underwhelmed.
Container

 
D:6086Jason ( 10139.35 points)
x2
December 23, 2020 06:10pm
DylanSH99: Not necessarily. The way he's handled the pandemic has been detrimental.

Trump handled the pandemic about as terribly as one could expect, yet still won Florida fairly easily. People don't care.
Race

 
D:6086Jason ( 10139.35 points)
December 09, 2020 08:54am
Ranked choice voting is racist, because it prevents a race-based outcome. Huh?
Candidate

 
D:6086Jason ( 10139.35 points)
x2
November 19, 2020 04:48pm
Issue

 
D:6086Jason ( 10139.35 points)
November 13, 2020 08:38am
Truth is, there's only so much you can do by just aggregating polls (which the "model" fundamentally becomes in the end). I'm some random dude shooting the sh*t on the internet and did a better job of predicting this year's election results than 538's much-vaunted model.
Candidate

 
D:6086Jason ( 10139.35 points)
November 06, 2020 04:55pm
Much like the 2008 Georgia Senate runoff, it's easy to foresee Democratic complacency after winning the Presidency, along with some amount of building Republican rage.
Race

 
D:6086Jason ( 10139.35 points)
x3
November 05, 2020 10:26pm
What's so interesting about the runoffs? Republicans are clearly favored to win both.
Race

 
D:6086Jason ( 10139.35 points)
x2
November 05, 2020 06:08pm
There are certain parts of the country where a populist message with a left-wing emphasis on government spending and economic opportunity can fly, even in places that voted for Trump. Semantics matter to people though, so you can't necessarily be a self-described socialist and expect to win. This is why people like Sherrod Brown and Gary Peters are in office.

"Defund the police" is even more problematic, since at that point candidates would either have to (a) defend the unpopular position of not having a police force, or (b) engage in semantic arguments over "defund the police" really not meaning defund the police but rather some nuanced reimagining of police resources. When anti-abortion advocates talked about "defunding" Planned Parenthood, they weren't making some pragmatic argument; they were being pretty clear about what they meant. It would behoove criminal justice reformists to understand the words they're using if they don't really mean what they say.
Candidate

 
D:6086Jason ( 10139.35 points)
November 05, 2020 12:04pm
This is one way to heal our nation's divisions.
Race

 
D:6086Jason ( 10139.35 points)
x3
November 04, 2020 11:35am
I think there's a very real chance Trump runs again in 2024 given how close it is. The nomination is his with very little effort.
Event

 
D:6086Jason ( 10139.35 points)
x2
November 03, 2020 09:12pm
On pace to be a future Republican nominee for President.
Race

 
D:6086Jason ( 10139.35 points)
x2
November 03, 2020 07:27pm
Congratulations to Mitch McConnell on winning his fourth term as President of the United States.
Race

 
D:6086Jason ( 10139.35 points)
October 30, 2020 12:10am
I very much buy into the "shy Trump voter" theory if for no other reason than the fact that the states Trump did unexpectedly well in were states that elected Obama twice. There's no denying that there were working-class voters who were willing to take a chance on Trump back when he was running on a protectionist, pro-industrial, economic nationalist message. But maybe they didn't want to be affiliated with the racist and sexist stuff, either, and were generally reserved regarding their support.

That being said, I think the greater issue in 2020 is the potential failure for polls to accurately gauge voter turnout in rural areas. In places like Florida and Ohio in 2018, there was still a last-minute rural surge that led to Republican candidates overperforming in those states. For that reason, I'm not really buying into the idea of Biden maintaining a 1-point lead in places like Georgia or North Carolina either. I could be wrong, and there have been years when polls were accurate. But it has been a very long time since polls underestimated Democratic support.
Race

 
D:6086Jason ( 10139.35 points)
October 27, 2020 02:45pm
You can still see some Beto for Senate bumper stickers occasionally. I just figured it was laziness but who knows.

Either way, it was a real missed opportunity against Cornyn.
Race

 
D:6086Jason ( 10139.35 points)
October 27, 2020 09:25am
Stood in line to vote at 8am, waited about 30 minutes. The line was longer after I had left. No obvious Trump supporters at my south Austin polling place.

Voted Democratic up and down the ballot. I had considered voting 3rd party this year and am ultimately dissatisfied with Biden as a nominee, but the combination of Texas becoming a potential battleground combined with the atrocity of Barrett's confirmation sealed the deal.

If Biden is as weak and ineffective as I anticipate he will be, then I will simply not vote for him in 2024. But Biden's ambiguity on court-packing suggests there may be some more ambition on that front than he's letting on.

Maybe American-style democracy simply does not work. But hey, I tried.
Race

 
D:6086Jason ( 10139.35 points)
October 25, 2020 11:17am
In order of probability:

1. Georgia
2. Florida
3. North Carolina

...

4. Arizona
Race

 
D:6086Jason ( 10139.35 points)
October 24, 2020 11:00am
Making sock puppet accounts of fake supporters is probably not a good way to start off your candidacy.
Candidate

 
D:6086Jason ( 10139.35 points)
x5
October 22, 2020 06:31pm
I may regret flipping my prediction here, but there seems to be an unusual lot of baggage for this "rising star" political neophyte.

One-term wonder for Davis if he wins.
Race

 
D:6086Jason ( 10139.35 points)
x2
October 21, 2020 12:10pm
I kept getting a sense of deja vu with this race after 2016, but looking back it appears Thatcher never actually led in any Texas polls. Although Trump did outperform some polls showing the race as being closer than it was.

In the end I'm not expecting Texas to turn blue the way Nevada or New Mexico did almost overnight. But Texas may resemble Florida in that it's a red state that gives Democrats false hope as Republicans continue to win by low single-digit margins.
Race

 
D:6086Jason ( 10139.35 points)
October 10, 2020 10:35pm
Even if the polls are as wrong as they were in 2016, Biden has enough of a cushion to survive a last-minute dropoff. It would take an unprecedented amount of error for Biden to lose, assuming the numbers are unchanged over the next few weeks (which is doubtful, Republicans will eventually consolidate).

But since you can't really control poll error, it makes sense for Biden to play it safe. It really makes no difference whether Biden wins in a landslide or with exactly 270 electoral votes, and he is enough of an establishment crony that he probably doesn't care about downballot ramifications since he is completely devoid of any ambitious policy proposals. In that sense, it's a smarter play than the Thatcher campaign's overreach in Texas and Georgia.
News

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