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USER DETAILS
Screen NameRBH   
NameBrandon
LocationIndependence, ,
Email
BirthdayNovember 11, 1985
AffiliationDemocratic
First LoginNovember 29, 2006 08:40pm
Last LoginFebruary 27, 2024 02:01pm
Predictions Points: 5212.2285
Predictions: 2571/3032 (84.80%)
Points Per: 5212.2285/3032 (1.72)
Emote Messages 1,205
DISCUSSION
 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
April 12, 2024 06:18pm
because of an increase in voters who may not necessarily be paying much attention to downballot races that are voting more off of names who may be more inclined to vote for women for an office like board of education.. it's very much a theory that probably can't be proven without trying to read voters minds

so it's not like the "Cook County voters voting for Irish surnames for low name ID spots" theory

this election had 34% of registered voters voting, compared to a race 2 years ago where the turnout for a school board race was 14%. 34% is pretty high for an April municipal election around here

on the other hand, the school board candidates made up most of the signage in yards so it's not like the candidates were complete unknowns until people voted
Race

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
April 12, 2024 04:20pm
yeah, transparency in school board decisions was a topic in this election

the 7th place candidate wasn't on either squad, but I think he got the whole "being banned from school property" thing cleared up because they dropped the charges over speaking out of turn at a school board meeting
Race

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
April 11, 2024 01:21pm
a Republican primary where two of the candidates were statewide Independent candidates in 2022 (Becker and Mund)
Race

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
April 09, 2024 03:51pm
part 1 of putting 1990s Texas House districts on here: putting the districts and trying to figure out which ones to set to 1993-1995, 1993-1997, 1993-1999, or 1993-2003. Fortunately the bills they had to pass to change district lines (both the ones they changed willingly and the ones that were changed by courts) list which districts were changed.

Part 2 involved figuring out that they didn't change the Dallas/Houston districts until the map used in 1996 and that those wild looking districts lasted 2 cycles

Part 3 involved emailing ARP because the 1998 map wasn't extracting from a Zip file (they quickly fixed it so all thanks to them on that)

So the 1992 and 1994 maps are in, and then it's about putting in the districts that changed in 1996/98 to actually have legislative maps from Texas so you can set the date back and look at a mostly blue Texas.
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D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
April 07, 2024 04:01pm
I did find 1990s Texas shapefiles for the state house/senate on the American Redistricting Project website (thearp.org) and I added the TX State Senate districts.

The state house districts might be a little more of a challenge since it's 4 maps for 5 cycles, 150 districts, and figuring out which ones were the same for multiple maps.
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D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
April 06, 2024 05:12pm
amazing career path for Ashby from "guy who ran a Republican primary challenge to George W. Bush" to "appointed city counciloor" to "lost re-election to a Libertarian"
Race

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
April 06, 2024 02:33pm
the Johnson vote might split and let a Libertarian though
Race

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
April 05, 2024 02:52pm
fixed it (somehow the NH 1824-1827 county map was connected to Massachusetts counties instead of NH counties)
Race

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
x2
April 03, 2024 06:16pm
found a reference to "Caleb W. Allis" running for Comptroller in 1879 and changed it over
Candidate

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
April 02, 2024 06:48pm
why yes, you can see the ski resort counties in this map
Race

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
March 31, 2024 04:27pm
he has the hair of someone who writes science fiction which is really about the evils of abortion
Candidate

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
x2
March 29, 2024 07:32pm
(to help a candidate not in the primary for the full term)
Race

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
March 24, 2024 12:48am
I read one tweet claiming several candidates accidentally filed for this office
Race

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
March 21, 2024 03:41pm
it was a good move for us to keep an eye on Spring Valley politics for many years
Race

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
March 18, 2024 02:11pm
ctrl+shift+R on Chrome is your friend sometimes
Race

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
March 15, 2024 07:31pm
there were contested county primaries in Marengo that were blowouts (Circuit Clerk candidate wins 72-28, County Commission candidate wins 63-15-14), so it's probably not non-Dems crossing over to vote in a Dem primary

almost 600 voters voted in a Dem Circuit Clerk primary in Marengo who didn't vote for President

that scenario is probably *some* of the situation with RGV counties in Texas, but those counties have always had active Dem primaries for county offices and the percentages weren't outliers then
Race

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
March 15, 2024 01:28pm
Kinda interestingly random in regards to where Biden beat his statewide average.

Also, despite some of the claims about Trump %s with AA voters, it really doesn't show up in a place like this primary, or at least it doesn't show up as much as some of the South Texas primary results can back up some of those claims.
Race

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
March 14, 2024 01:30pm
guessing that's one reason why they have different filing deadlines for federal and state office
Race

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
March 13, 2024 06:38pm
okay I think I made it through the assortment of convention dates to enter Utah races (there's county conventions for some races, some are at the state convention, and there'll be primaries for some of them and probably some random state legislators getting bounced for someone who believes crazy things)
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D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
March 07, 2024 01:40am
added the 2024 state legislative races (thanks, Ohio Secretary of State's office for having the election night site up 2 weeks early since they don't publish a candidate list)

also added the new State Senate/House maps
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D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
March 06, 2024 12:41am
in which one the Cotham party switch costs her mother a primary
Race

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
March 03, 2024 04:25pm
Denver: "give us margarine or give us death"
Race

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.23 points)
March 01, 2024 12:58pm
I've always just copied and pasted the images into Irfanview, adjusted to 150x200ish and saved them as jpgs.
Issue

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