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"A comprehensive, collaborative elections resource."
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 from Maryland Republican93
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USER DETAILS |
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| Screen Name | Maryland Republican93 |
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| Name | |
| Location | , , |
| Email | |
| Birthday | September 15, 1993 |
| Affiliation | Republican |
| First Login | October 11, 2022 06:37pm |
| Last Login | April 18, 2024 09:12pm |
| Predictions |
Points: 1181.5370
Predictions: 832/897 (92.75%)
Points Per: 1181.5370/897 (1.32)
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| Emote Messages |
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| DISCUSSION |
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Why is it that everyone my age who runs for Congress has extremely punchable faces?
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Candidate
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| Un:9757 | BrentinCO ( 6338.62 points)
x5
| November 02, 2023 07:08pm |
Can someone justify why there is a disputed tag on Senator Lujan's profile page?
I just noticed this and have no idea where this is coming from. Its certainly not an issue or a topic in New Mexico. I only find one rando article from many years ago where a primary opponent made a lifestyle jab because he wasn't married. To the best of my knowledge Republicans haven't made this an issue at all. Seems there has to be a higher bar than a primary opponent or campaign throwing mud.
I vote to remove.
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| Un:9757 | BrentinCO ( 6338.62 points)
| October 04, 2023 10:59am |
This was a last minute change for me. Glad I made the change.
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I doubt it. If anything, she'll have appeal on both sides. Might have a better winning percentage than Stewart.
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| I:9626 | Bojicat ( 786.82 points)
| September 04, 2023 12:14pm |
Now in business and no longer 'Interim' [Link]
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| Un:9757 | BrentinCO ( 6338.62 points)
x2
| August 03, 2023 11:25am |
Its all good Maryland Republican. It actually forced me to double check. These close races can shift. Thanks for raising. We are all owners of accuracy.
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| BEER:10271 | WSNJ ( 446.16 points)
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| July 28, 2023 11:31am |
For the next 61 days in the lead up to the general election I'm going to try and do a "highlight" on each legislative district and county race. The point is to garner some discussion, questions, and participation in this off year election where big time news is difficult to come across.
District Background:
For the last 20 years the 2nd District has hosted a lot of competitive races for Senate and Assembly. In fact nearly all of them have been close. It’s hard to tell if that will be the case this time around. The District itself is odd. It has a significant minority population centered in the Democratic leaning areas of Atlantic City and Pleasentville. The surrounding areas are largely either Republican towns of competitive towns that will swing either way. Redistricting didn’t really change the factors all that much here.
Senate Race:
After winning a narrow race in 2021, Vince Polistina has settled himself in as, arguably, the most moderate Republican in the State Senate. He is a frequent “Yes” vote on a number of Phil Murphy’s priorities. His “Yes” votes have been an issue for conservative key board warriors but it doesn’t really appear to be an issue in his district.
After struggling to find a suitable candidate Democrats settled on last second pick Victor Carmona. Carmona is a Councilman in Pleasentville one of the two Democratic strongholds in the district, and a town that Democrats rely on for big numbers if they want to win. Carmona also fills a promise by Atlantic County Democrats to run more people of color. Carmona isn’t even really running a campaign, and Democrats don’t seem to be all that happy about him running to begin with. He isn’t even present on their website or any of their campaign material. There have been rumors that they may do the classic NJ Dem bait and switch but that was depend on Carmona being onboard and it’s unclear if he would be. Polistina seems to be running a lowkey campaign and most likely waiting just in case the dems put in a more formidable candidate. Libertarian candidate Shawn Peck appears to be a non issue but certainly could become one if Polistina’s moderation becomes an issue to the red meat types. Polistina has also done well with labor union endorsements which are huge in South Jersey.
Assembly Race:
Like Polistina, Claire Swift and Don Guardian sage cemented themselves as the most moderate GOP legislators in the Assembly. Unlike Polistina they have top tier opponents. Caren Fitzpatrick has won 2 county wide elections in Atlantic County, and Alphonso Harrell has showed to be a compelling and professional candidate despite never running for office before. Public union and labor union support appears to be split in this race. Both tickets are giving it their all and show no signs of slowing down between now and November.
Prediction: Senate: Likely R, Assembly: Tossup to Lean R
Informational Links:
Polistina for Senate: [Link]
Fitzpatrick and Harrell for Assembly: [Link]
OC Assembly Race: [Link]
OC Assembly 2021: [Link]
OC Assembly 2019: [Link]
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| BEER:10271 | WSNJ ( 446.16 points)
x4
| July 27, 2023 04:11pm |
For the next 61 days in the lead up to the general election I'm going to try and do a "highlight" on each legislative district and county race. The point is to garner some discussion, questions, and participation in this off year election where big time news is difficult to come across.
4 years ago the 1st district was THE most competitive district in the state. It was the only district where all three seats were up and contested. The incumbent Democrats ran as the "Jeff Van Drew Team" against a well funded and well recruited Team Mike Testa. The campaign used the slogan "Flip the 1st". It worked. Testa and his running mates Erik Simonsen, and Antwan McClellan won by a pretty healthy margin given the competitive nature of the district. This signaled the beginning of the collapse of the South Jersey Democratic Machine because not long after they were unable to keep their golden boy, Van Drew, in line causing him to defect to the GOP. Undaunted, the South Jersey Dems forged ahead, and 2020 gave them mixed results. Most importantly they did not beat Van Drew. The 1st District is the rural heart of the 2nd Congressional District. It is Trump Country and no one denies that. So in 2021, the Dems didn't really look to stop Testa, instead looking elsewhere. Their lack of care showed as Testa and Co. won re-election big.
In 2022 when the District was changed, it got somewhat more Democratic. This was mainly due to the addition of Bridgeton a heavily diverse and Democratic city. After rumors that Marie Blistan, the former NJEA Union Boss, would run against Testa dissipated, the Dems didn't really have any hope for beating Testa. They are focusing their guns elsewhere as South Jersey races to the right.
A union electrician, Charles LaSpata filed to take on Testa. He nearly got kicked off the ballot, and so far, has no semblance of a campaign. For Testa's part he doesn't seem to be taking the campaign seriously either. He really only talks about one issue and that is the new GOP crusade against offshore wind. More specifically blaming the development off the shore line for the uptick in whale deaths. Who knows the real reason, but it has gotten the GOP base riled up, so the angle appears to be turnout.
Over on the Assembly side of things the campaign is pretty sleepy. McClellan and Simonsen are very much lowkey legislators who have no interest of building some name id outside of the District (unlike Testa). Neither really appear to be campaigning on their own, so Testa has picked up a lot of the weight. Their opponents (Eddie Bonnner, and Damita White-Morris) are the type you'd expect in a race like this: Party faithfuls willing to be the sacrificial lambs. Unlike Testa, Simonsen and McClellan have labor and public sector support.
The three are some of the most conservative members of the legislators in the states southern delegation. McClellan has some strong Pro-Life view points and is a member of the Assembly GOP leadership. McClellan is more mild mannered never really having much to say, but his conservatism is without question. For Testa's part you'd be hard pressed to find moderation in most of his votes... so there's that.
Both races are Safe R
Informational Links:
Mike Testa webstie: [Link]
Cape May Democrats: [Link]
OC Assembly Race:
[Link]
Feel free to contribute!
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| Un:9757 | BrentinCO ( 6338.62 points)
x4
| June 29, 2023 09:21pm |
I always admired his contributions. I'm coming across so many of his contributions again while I'm exploring old California elections. Reread the comments here and it makes me sad.
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| D:8509 | DylanSH99 ( 1716.13 points)
| October 25, 2022 07:54pm |
As a Democrat, this debate is hard to watch. I do not see Fetterman winning this election anymore.
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It's still gonna be close, but I no longer expect Fetterman to win.
Which surprises the Hell out of me.
I've seldom been so sure someone was gooing to win a seriously contested race, and subsequently changed my mind.
But a stroke is a major life event.
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