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| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points)
| February 13, 2022 01:49am |
That LPNH chose to nominate her and Jeremy Kauffmann is effectively proving the point that they are the Republican saboteurs everybody has been accusing them of being over the past year. **** the lot of them.
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| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points)
| December 31, 2021 01:35am |
Smith has been repeatedly losing his **** as the Mises Caucus continues to tell him "don't call us, we'll call you" at any attempt to remain involved. First, he trashes Raudsep for supporting a Sarwark for a committee position (the horror!), then bitches that MC is supporting him as a non-member who cannot be trusted because of said vote. He's also upset that his posts in their group are being deleted and apparently was booted from their Discord. And today, he briefly alleged that Angela McArdle is sabotaging his campaign before deleting the post.
I don't like the Mises Caucus at all, but watching this ghosting breakup has been utterly delicious. Some individual MCers may still vote for him, but his chances in this race now have effectively dropped to zero and his time as a figure within the movement is flaming out quickly. 2022 is already looking good.
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| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points)
 x2
| December 01, 2020 07:38pm |
These past few years have been useful to see who amongst one's Christian acquaintances (and family, if applicable) are sincerely religious vs. those for whom it's effectively used as a social club. While depressing to see most fall into the latter, even as an nonbeliever I have to respect the former.
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| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points)
| November 24, 2020 09:40pm |
She puts a pleasant face on being a phony partisan hack. After securing reelection in 2016 she promptly changed existing policy to start including bulk write-in votes in totals once it became likely that the LP would surpass the 5% threshold to achieve major party status. Contrast this with earlier this cycle when several minor parties clearly ran afoul of signature collecting laws only allowing a voter to sign one petition, yet didn't want to look mean while on the ballot herself and rightly bump them from the ballot, instead lobbying the courts to "clarify" the obvious law. She also is a fierce supporter of our terrible Top Two system and has resisted election reform efforts to change to something that improves voter choice.
Saying she sucks is absolutely my own opinion, though her integrity is more questionable than her office likes to pretend. I'm mostly just bitter that she didn't narrowly lose to then be able to crow about needing our votes this time. C'est la vie.
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| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points)
| June 02, 2020 02:34am |
I think she did well off the perception that he was complacent. Pretty sure I remember hearing Miller had endorsed her for the open seat, and saw an internal that had Baldes winning by something like 15 points. This race is the prime focus of the Libertarian Frontier Project and they want to have something to build from in the mountain West.
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| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points)
x2
| March 31, 2020 08:41pm |
He's really always been a Republican who is also an attention whore.
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| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points)
| March 14, 2020 02:30am |
Thinking it's probably safe to remove Gillum at this point.
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| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points)
| January 19, 2020 05:38pm |
Thanks, forgot about this. Of course they would pick somebody not already in the database!
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| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points)
| January 11, 2020 04:24pm |
Ruff/Phillips ending their campaign really came out of nowhere, and complicates the math a lot. Her campaign was the one that truly seemed to bring in support from all caucuses and was always positive, i.e. well-positioned for convention. I honestly expected them to be the ticket, barring a last minute entry from a big name a la Amash.
While Chafee's campaign has been a bit of a cold fish thus far I expect a good chunk of the prags to end up supporting him. Ruff's departure leaves a big question mark as to who has the coalition to beat him, though. Most of the others have too much baggage to bring in the support needed to take a convention majority:
Abramson - consistent criticism over conservatism, particularly on immigration/shirking the border wall question.
Berhman - orthodox positions only really appeal to radicals, and silly hat doesn't help.
Hornberger - getting a lot of buzz from some segments but history of intraparty sabotage has been damaging. Also seems to be pushing paleocon positions that lack appeal outside of Mises/Paulite crowd.
Kokesh - good guy but positions are enough outside the libertarian orthodoxy it seems unlikely to appeal to enough delegates. More of a limited government federalist type.
McAfee - nonstarter for well established reasons.
Supreme - similar issues as Kokesh, having good crossover with libertarian thought but not traditionally libertarian enough. The silly hat might help?
Others either have no chance or have not emerged yet. Have heard rumblings on Armstrong and Jorgensen occasionally but both seem to be more old school in their campaign approach. Maybe Jorgensen has a shot at some Ruff supporters as more of a veteran radical and as a woman? I just don't see the oomph behind her campaign, though. This field needs a new face from the party base that holds sway to shake off some of those gadflies up there and offer a proper candidacy to hold Chafee to the platform.
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| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points)
| December 23, 2019 03:39am |
This map is...interesting.
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| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points)
| December 09, 2019 12:44am |
Was browsing Electoral Calculus just now and noticed they are now showing 53% chance of Conservative gain here in Blair's old constituency: [Link]
I suspect it will be close but hard to see that, personally. It's a Leave constituency but not super heavily.
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| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points)
| December 05, 2019 03:50am |
DylanSH99: Yet most of his supporters either voted for Trump, third party, or didn't vote.
I'd love to see that data.
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| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points)
| December 04, 2019 03:46am |
Who is this guy and why does he look like a Dick Tracy henchman?
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| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points)
| October 22, 2019 02:44pm |
Has it been front and center? This rather sounds like the old "I guess it's OK as long as I don't have to see it" dodge.
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| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points)
| July 02, 2019 01:01pm |
Harris is going to have to answer for and handle the anxiety over her lackluster civil rights record as prosecutor/AG with humility and sincerity. If she can weather that problem, she will be unstoppable.
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| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points)
x2
| June 05, 2019 12:39pm |
Natalie: Why would you even admit to this? Stupid
Because he's human trash and it probably is a net positive with today's GOP.
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| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points)
| March 07, 2019 02:13am |
You win everything.
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| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points)
x2
| January 16, 2019 09:33pm |
Most people don't know who Vohra is.
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| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points)
| January 03, 2019 02:04pm |
Based on entries here relative to party size can it be safely deduced that the Luxembourg Democrats are the sexiest party in the world?
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| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points)
| December 19, 2018 02:09pm |
The caucuses of which I'm aware break down basically like this:
Radicals - orthodox AnCaps, live in a philosophy book and are always the ones to oversimplify complex problems based on theory while shunning any real world evidence to the contrary. Some decent folks in there all this notwithstanding.
Mises - the propertarians and conservatarians. To them, the end all and be all of any issue is property rights. Some reasonable overlap with the Radicals. In my judgment, these are an even worse parody of Libertarians than the Radicals because they feed into every Randian stereotype that turns us off to the left and center which would otherwise be good allies.
Praggies - classical liberals, Jeffersonians, centrists, incrementalists, yada yada. Plurality of the party that wants to be a serious force and willing to make concessions. Remains to be seen if a Bill Weld candidacy will be too big of a concession for them. Probably 40-45% of the party.
LibSoc - runs the gamut from Georgists to AnComs. Want vocal support for the plight of the poor and marginalized rather than market indifference. The ones that make the Mises scream "commies!" and run to the LNC and try to get them excommunicated. Small but vocal force.
Audacious - the weirdos. Fun in small doses but piss most people off when a camera is rolling because they make the party look immature. Some overlap with LibSoc but to my knowledge do not have a consistent ideological faction.
It appears as though the online debate linked above was sponsored by the Radical Caucus and featured aligned candidates, which would explain why Zoltan was not there.
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| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points)
| December 18, 2018 01:53pm |
Desperation.
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| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points)
| December 15, 2018 12:56pm |
Kyle: Also, there have been a lot of people trying to make Gillibrand a frontrunner since the beginning of the Trump administration. No polling evidence of that whatsoever in this or any other poll. She is definitely running 4th out of 4 women Senators.
Not surprising to me, I have never understood what makes her notable whatsoever. Even in this identity politics-saturated 21st century, there has to be more there than being a woman from New York who looks reasonably good on camera.
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| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points)
| November 16, 2018 02:27pm |
If we get anything positive out of the Trump years it ought to be making it OK for conservatives to support criminal justice reform and cannabis reform.
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