| DISCUSSION |
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| D:7918 | Labour Dem ( 228.97 points) | September 10, 2018 09:12pm |
A 1% lead in a traditionally Republican state is hardly a sign of a guaranteed win for McSally and there isn't much that should be drawn from just one poll anyway. Sinema is far from being out of this and is still in a very good position.
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| D:7918 | Labour Dem ( 228.97 points) | August 22, 2018 12:30pm |
The idea that Campa-Najjar is should somehow be held responsible for what his dead grandfather did (who he never knew) is ludicrous. It's a Republican district but I think calling Campa-Najjar a terrorist will only make things worse for Republicans. Hunter is the one with the charges, not Campa-Najjar.
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| D:7918 | Labour Dem ( 228.97 points) | August 21, 2018 09:44pm |
As already stated the format of the primary doesn't entitle any party a slot on the ballot and that pretty much stands up to constitutional scrutiny. Hunter will stay on the ballot and there isn't much Republicans can do.
Sure, they could run a campaign like "vote for Hunter, then he'll win and resign, then we'll have a special election to elect another Republican", but that sounds so convoluted and could easily be criticized as a partisan scheme that would waste taxpayer dollars.
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| D:7918 | Labour Dem ( 228.97 points) | August 20, 2018 11:38pm |
That is beyond dumb, it is down right offensive. You just do not compare waiting in line at the DMV to concentration camps.
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| D:7918 | Labour Dem ( 228.97 points) | August 17, 2018 06:56pm |
That is super weird.
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| D:7918 | Labour Dem ( 228.97 points) | August 17, 2018 10:31am |
It's impossible for Johnson to win 50-50 win there is a Republican in the race. That aside, Johnson has no chance at all.
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| D:7918 | Labour Dem ( 228.97 points) | August 13, 2018 04:29pm |
Carl Paladino declared that he is running but it doesn't appear that the Republican Party has selected him or anyone else as their replacement. He shouldn't be here yet.
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| D:7918 | Labour Dem ( 228.97 points) | August 12, 2018 08:09pm |
Such theatrics between two candidates who don't have a chance of winning the seat.
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| D:7918 | Labour Dem ( 228.97 points) | August 03, 2018 08:45pm |
Somehow I don't think Oregon is going to flip in a Trump midterm.
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| D:7918 | Labour Dem ( 228.97 points) | August 02, 2018 11:16am |
Los Angeles has seen the same trend. South LA has become mostly Hispanic as African-Americans have moved either other states or other cities in California. Lancaster, Palmdale and Victorville are all cities that have seen sharp increases in African-American population over the past couple of decades.
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| D:7918 | Labour Dem ( 228.97 points) | August 01, 2018 12:14am |
The previous primary challenges failed so there probably is no longer anyone serious willing to take him on.
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| D:7918 | Labour Dem ( 228.97 points) | July 26, 2018 01:56pm |
That is probably because some county clerks don't report publically report results from low population precincts to protect voter privacy.
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| D:7918 | Labour Dem ( 228.97 points) | July 19, 2018 09:59pm |
They know that they never intended to go anywhere near South Los Angeles.
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| D:7918 | Labour Dem ( 228.97 points) | July 19, 2018 01:34pm |
Agreed. Perhaps he does have concerns about Trump but this statement is at least in part motivated by losing the primary.
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| D:7918 | Labour Dem ( 228.97 points) | July 13, 2018 10:04pm |
What a long and odd race history he has. He has been all over the place.
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| D:7918 | Labour Dem ( 228.97 points) | July 12, 2018 05:25pm |
Clarke didn't take the challenge seriously and even went as far as to say that she was laughing at it in a debate.
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| D:7918 | Labour Dem ( 228.97 points) | July 12, 2018 02:42pm |
Crowley had the WFP line before the primary. He isn't running on that line but his name is still on it because state law has strict requirements for ballot removal. Moving out of state, being convicted of a crime, dying or being nominated for another office are the only ways off of the ballot. Moving out of state and being nominated for another office are his only viable options off the ballot, but since he endorsed her there is no reason for him to resort to drastic measures to be removed from the ballot.
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| D:7918 | Labour Dem ( 228.97 points) | July 12, 2018 12:32pm |
She is not ready for primetime and seems a little to ready to pick fights. It's been fairly clear that Crowley is not going to contest the race even though he does have the WFP line. I'm not sure what she gains by doing this.
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| D:7918 | Labour Dem ( 228.97 points) | July 07, 2018 09:41am |
He needs to resign.
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| D:7918 | Labour Dem ( 228.97 points) | July 06, 2018 07:59pm |
Even fair redistricting is going to produce some districts that lean towards a party because geography often is more favor to one party in some areas. In the case of Utah there would be only one competitive congressional district, but how competitive it would be is based on how a majority of the commissioners interpreted geographical standards.
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| D:7918 | Labour Dem ( 228.97 points) | July 02, 2018 12:00pm |
I hardly think Medicare fraud is an insignificant issue.
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| D:7918 | Labour Dem ( 228.97 points) | June 27, 2018 04:09pm |
The bottom line is that Crowley did not because the district hated him for being white, he lost because he was pretty much disconnected from the district. If you want a counterexample look at TN-9. Cohen has been challenged several cycles in a row by black candidates but has always defeated them. But if you choose to believe that Crowley was victim of racial hatred, you are entitled to that opinion.
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| D:7918 | Labour Dem ( 228.97 points) | June 27, 2018 10:41am |
Just because minorities want to support a candidate that is like them doesn't mean they are racist considering that minority representation in government is low. Besides that probably isn't even the entire story. Ocasio-Cortez made it a point to reach out to minority voters and even sent out literature in Albanian. That sort of outreach is what can catch an incumbent off guard, especially a heavily entrenched one.
And as the map posted above shows the race really was not decided on race so it's more than a little off base to shout racism. Crowley didn't lose because the district is racist.
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| D:7918 | Labour Dem ( 228.97 points) | June 20, 2018 05:53pm |
It's West Virginia. There are people there who can break through based on parochial strength and personality.
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| D:7918 | Labour Dem ( 228.97 points) | June 15, 2018 05:26pm |
The primary vote totals showed a surge in Democratic turnout and drop off in Republican turnout compared to 2010 so an enthusiasm gap is on the table. Abrams has made a point of energizing black turnout and seems to be capable of doing so. Democrats also outvoted Republicans in Gwinnett and only narrowly missed doing so in Cobb in the primary.
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