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A Bowman internal claiming a one point lead is not a good sign for him.
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Race
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500k was self-funded and 500k was from his brother to his PAC. The state contributions will be refunded and re-contributed to the federal campaign.
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Race
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Onder starts off with $1 million before calling a single donor. No one can get to his right. He will be tough to beat.
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Race
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“Moderate” is an understatement. Edwards is a liberal. She openly supported Biden, wants to expand federal LGBT protections against religious organizations, and stated that she wanted Republicans to compromise on their principles and work more with Chuck Schumer.
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Race
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If it were not for slavery, the children of Tim Scott’s ancestors would have been born in a third-world African country, rather than becoming one of the most important individuals in the most powerful country on Earth.
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News
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Four counties. Can’t forget the 28 people registered to vote in the Cass County portion!
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Race
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Kansas City Election Board serves Kansas City within Jackson County. District 1 contains part of Clay and Platte counties.
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Race
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If the Todd Akin controversy had occurred in August 2022 instead of August 2012, he would be on his way to the U.S. Senate in a few months.
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Race
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I’ve been predicting an Oz victory even when polls had Fetterman up by double digits. It’s almost impossible to escape a state’s partisanship+national environment. I learned that lesson in VA Sen 2014 and WI Sen 2016 (among others).
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Race
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That was certainly not intentional. Oops.
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User
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In the expectation game, Gibbons lost. He was leading at one point, but collapsed towards the end. Although Timken did worse on election day, she never gained traction. Mandel did about as well as I expected, and Dolan did better.
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Race
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Unlike Greitens, Moon isn’t polling in first. Moon is also lacking in the fundraising game. Unless a new poll has him in or near first, or his April quarterly is massive, I’m not betting on a Moon victory.
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Race
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Did Laura Cisneros voters think that they were voting for Jessica Cisneros? I’m sure radio and TV markets overlap.
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Race
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Barletta was a statewide nominee, yet is barely edging out a state senator. Mastriano has more room to grow than Barletta.
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Race
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If Shimkus had just waited two years and retired this cycle, his protégé, Davis, would be cruising to re-election. Now he probably loses.
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Race
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Two prominent candidates from Austin, one from San Antonio. Without much else to go on, I’ll predict Viagran does well enough in Bexar to get a plurality in the first round.
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Race
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“safe Ellmers” lololol
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Race
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Not if Gohmert makes the runoff, which I wouldn't bet against.
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Race
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Did Holness forget that Palm Beach County was in the district?
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Race
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Garbage poll.
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Race
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Mooney has a lot more money and is likely to get a Trump endorsement. The carpetbagging attacks against him will be less effective after eight years representing West Virginia in Congress. I think he wins.
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Race
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You could have clicked on Otter’s profile and easily seen that he was not an “appointed incumbent”.
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Race
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A GOP hold during a Democratic presidential administration would not be shocking. The change in national environment should balance out for the lack of incumbency.
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Race
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Most of these seem pretty obvious, but why Kaylee Tuck?
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Race
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Ashcroft’s seat if he wants it, but I think he waits to run for governor.
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Race
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