|
|
"A comprehensive, collaborative elections resource."
|
Rufus
 |
USER DETAILS |
|
|
| Screen Name | Rufus |
|
| Name | |
| Location | , , |
| Email | |
| Birthday | 00, 0000 |
| Affiliation | Libertarian |
| First Login | November 01, 2018 11:00pm |
| Last Login | June 03, 2022 02:20pm |
| Predictions |
Points: 1087.2679
Predictions: 783/979 (79.98%)
Points Per: 1087.2679/979 (1.11)
|
| Messages Posted |
186
|
| DISCUSSION |
| |
| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points) | June 03, 2022 02:34pm |
Luzerne County Historian: I'm just gonna assume the winners were Mises-backed candidates based on the results from the other elections.
Yes. Same with JC, where there's a ~300 vote difference between the winning tier and the runner-up. Wilford was somewhat closer for showing integrity and class as presiding secretary even while getting trounced for retention.
The chief issue with the multi-winner results is that they stupidly used Approval Voting for them and not for the single-winner races that the system is actually made for. It just reinforced a majoritarian outcome.
For JC, Meece had problems because so few of them have been members long enough to qualify to serve. They tended to back old Rads instead, and even then, at least one of the winners is going to likely get bumped for actually not meeting the requirement for membership length.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points) | June 02, 2022 12:19am |
She's burned so many bridges and treated so many people badly, she just happened to still have the one she needed for the time being. When Meece runs out of steam or ****s up she won't have any support left. Old Rads largely gave up on her this time, you just wouldn't know it based on the vote total.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points) | June 01, 2022 11:44pm |
Basically, yeah. From what I heard, even a fair bit of non-Mises delegates thought Hagopian gave a good speech and was conciliatory. He wants to turn the position into a CFO type thing and that inspired some but to me that's not really what the position is about. Still, he's about the most decent person on the LNC now.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points) | June 01, 2022 11:43pm |
I have results, no worries. Just saw the writing on the wall during Friday business and thought a better use of my time would be getting high than sit through all the depressing ****. Too bad I wasn't a member before, at least then I could have one to yank before the Meece use LNC funds to bail out their FEC fines or whatever.
McArdle gave Raudsep's nominating speech to try and get him through but when it was down to the two of them Smith had a slight edge. Dave Smith gave Josh Smith's nominating speech and that probably helped him a lot with all the mindless drones filling the caucus' seats. When it came down to just the two of them Smith had a slight edge. Interestingly enough, there was chatter about Nick Sarwark whipping votes for Smith that last round to be a poison pill for McArdle's term since he does nothing but lust after being chair. That may have well been the difference, if true.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points) | April 23, 2022 02:15am |
People still think Franken did anything wrong?
|
Candidate
|
|
| |
| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points) | April 22, 2022 03:53am |
Mises has taken the lion's share of delegate slots in several key states from organizing/manipulating rules (depending on your allegiance). This has some of their foes resigning themselves to defeat, and is going to be an uphill battle at this point in all honesty. McArdle likely is the favorite to win with such an advantage, and word is she is distributing lit supporting Raudsep for VC because she sees him as a better leadership partner. Which makes the prospect of Josh Smith crowing about all these delegate victories only to still lose more likely, which almost makes the whole thing worth it. At least I'd be a lot more comfortable staying around with their adults in control rather than the manchild fringe of their caucus.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points) | March 09, 2022 03:06pm |
data: Did Justin Greywolf drop out of the election?
His site now says he's running for 8th district Congress, apparently.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points) | February 13, 2022 01:49am |
That LPNH chose to nominate her and Jeremy Kauffmann is effectively proving the point that they are the Republican saboteurs everybody has been accusing them of being over the past year. **** the lot of them.
|
Candidate
|
|
| |
| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points) | January 18, 2022 01:35am |
Smith censured tonight for using the party's public business group to attack a party employee. His defense was that everybody who had Harlos removed deserved censure for the same reason (elected officials do not have the same protections as employees) and then called everybody cowards while promising that they'll all be replaced in Reno. He truly seems oblivious to that his Twitter troll base don't tend to vote in internal elections and that he might not even have majority support in his own caucus anymore.
Raudsep, even with Smith having attacked his integrity so recently, was one of only four to oppose censure. It's getting beyond sad.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points) | January 07, 2022 12:45am |
And, this has only gotten more ridiculous. J. Smith mixed it up with Dave Smith on Twitter about deferring to McArdle's VC choice while whining that he doesn't even want to be VC because he deserves chair for having "worked so hard," only for D. Smith to do a 180 literally because Raudsep had wished JBH a happy birthday and this is what is unforgivable to the idiot fringe in the Mises Caucus. Not playing footsie with nationalists and neo-monarchists, not oopsing into transphobia again and again, but having shared well wishes with a former colleague. McArdle is pissed, and uncertain what to do because she also finds this faux-pas unforgivable. I suspect (MC pope) Heise is in the same boat, mostly upset because unelectable Josh is selfishly divebombing the caucus' chances in Reno. All this while a bunch of states are preparing to hold conventions to elect delegates, too.
It's becoming unclear whether Raudsep will stay in the race, though. Decent enough guy, but Prags grew disillusioned with him for running defense for Harlos and edgelord MC affiliates in NH and DE, and now J. Smith and big name MC cheerleaders keep stabbing him in the back for dumb ****, showing what thankful and trustworthy allies they truly are. Sucks he had to learn this way, but makes a fine case study on why one shouldn't make nice with the Mises Caucus.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points) | December 31, 2021 01:35am |
Smith has been repeatedly losing his **** as the Mises Caucus continues to tell him "don't call us, we'll call you" at any attempt to remain involved. First, he trashes Raudsep for supporting a Sarwark for a committee position (the horror!), then bitches that MC is supporting him as a non-member who cannot be trusted because of said vote. He's also upset that his posts in their group are being deleted and apparently was booted from their Discord. And today, he briefly alleged that Angela McArdle is sabotaging his campaign before deleting the post.
I don't like the Mises Caucus at all, but watching this ghosting breakup has been utterly delicious. Some individual MCers may still vote for him, but his chances in this race now have effectively dropped to zero and his time as a figure within the movement is flaming out quickly. 2022 is already looking good.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points) | September 19, 2021 02:08am |
The book on which it's based, too. Movie took some liberties but still pleasing enough. Cogswell was a little impulsive/volatile but his heart was in the right place and his era's version of the Seattle Left was about a million times more decent than this generation's.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points) | September 19, 2021 01:50am |
PA Historian: No, it's because she's the only actual opposition running that's on the ballot.
This. Her issue priorities are such that a left-libertarian can find enough to like compared to particularly lacking mainstream options even if she isn't always consistent.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points) | September 08, 2021 03:15am |
If he thinks he'll get VC based entirely on revenge for Adams' anti-Harlos vote he's kidding himself. Word was that Mises were planning on supporting Adams because she's so universally respected, but seems that's likely out the window now. Raudsep could well take the position Adams was in as their favored non-member candidate after Smith's tantrum is over with.
It's going to be fascinating to watch how these recent events play out in the Mises Caucus. There's a segment that is fired up to avenge Harlos that are beating their drum loudly for Reno, as though somebody who only narrowly won last time and has lost a ton of support since is a great option to hitch their wagon to. Out west, where opinion tends to be more favorable to her, a lot of former supporters and reasonable MCers have been upset about her behavior and that her husband is going around grilling state chairs on their votes. More likely, this sort of nonsense is going to turn off the reasonable MC crowd and they'll either leave or vote their conscience in Reno. For all the big talk about their chances at convention, I was skeptical before and if their cause celebre until then is standing up for abusive fallen narcissists it's certain to backfire.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points) | September 05, 2021 04:08pm |
Old LW: Appeared on an episode of Unsolved Mysteries while he was still a State Senator discussing the murder of Michael Francke, who was working as the director of the Oregon Department of Corrections. Hill believed that Francke's murder was not some random encounter, but rather a political assassination.
He was on the excellent Murder in Oregon podcast, too. Came away from it wondering if he's the only honest Democrat in Oregon. The current AG is yet another Goldschmidt goon and is still trying to appeal their patsy back to prison.
|
Candidate
|
|
| |
| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points) | September 05, 2021 02:58pm |
Harlos removed by LNC vote this morning, 11-2 with 1 abstaining and 2 absent. Required 2/3 of body, whether they were present or not. Raudsep and J. Smith were absent.
Expect the Mises talking point to be how it hinged on Nekhaila leaving before the vote without expecting the Region 2 alternate to show up and vote in favor (even though that's exactly how alternates are supposed to work).
Several of the affirmative votes were clearly unhappy to do so, and she probably clinched it with her ranting, unhinged defense. Curious if she's going to run again in Reno or if they'll put up some ****ty avenger candidate.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points) | July 14, 2021 03:15am |
Mises are backing Angela McArdle for next time. Depending who you ask, Smith either decided against or was told not to. I'm no great fan of McArdle and wouldn't vote for her but she's at least not an outwardly negative and divisive person like he is.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points) | July 12, 2021 04:19pm |
There is some uncertainty whether she cast her region's ballot herself or deferred to the alternate, but for what it's worth it was ranked NOTA, then Bilyeu, then Thrasher. Somewhat amusing if she did rank herself over who she supposedly preferred, though that aside I'd say everybody but Mises are probably quite happy today. Of course, if they were serious about winning this they would have nominated a non-MC but friendly option like Nekhaila instead of their most controversial choice.
From what I hear, Bilyeu won because her message was more "get back to work" than focusing on healing and other such distractions that probably won't work and will hamper actual politicking.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points) | July 11, 2021 11:19pm |
She accepted nomination but with some reluctance and chose to nominate Thrasher after accepting nomination herself.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points) | July 11, 2021 05:19pm |
For all the MCs in the public response part of the meeting saying Smith deserves it because he keeps finishing runner-up, I don't think getting soundly rejected by a full convention twice is nearly the convincing rhetorical point they think it is.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points) | July 01, 2021 01:49pm |
Found the LNC public group chats and it appears Moellman has officially declined nomination. Shade had changed her mind and will now decline nomination. D'Orazio originally supported her but will accept nomination now that she has dropped.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points) | July 01, 2021 03:24am |
According to Laura Ebke, the LNC will vote on appointing a new chair at a meeting July 12, and current LNC members Bilyeu and Smith have already been nominated for the position.
If I were placing money on the decision, I'd put it on Bilyeu. She has been chair of the Texas LP for years and they are one of the most successful affiliates, also representing the region on the LNC during that time. Doesn't get into caucus fights and seems to be broadly respected as a serious, no-nonsense leader.
Other possibilities:
Merced - has been quiet since not seeking a second term as VC but is broadly appreciated and has said he'd be open to doing it as a caretaker.
Dasbach - respected old hand, not controversial, and apparently is willing to accept nomination.
Shade - has also said she would accept nomination. The new Liberation Caucus (pushes unabashed social liberalism) and Outright Libertarians appear to be supporting.
D'Orazio - has a lot of support from the mainliner JBH-backing types and is certainly still interested in the position since his last run. Strikes against are that he may be seen as too much of a JBH ally and the New York LP has had some messes in recent memory.
Unlikely:
Moellman - has given no indication he wants to remain in the position since becoming acting chair. Seems to me if one runs for VC they should be open to that idea, though maybe it's just too much of a headache for him by now.
Sarwark - still has sizable support but most likely doesn't want to come back and picking the most hated enemy of the Mises Caucus during a point of calls for unity is the opposite of what most members want.
Rutherford - have seen him suggested, but am uncertain if he is at all interested.
No chance in hell:
Smith - if not for Harlos dodging getting removed and people wanting to move on, would be in at least as much danger of getting removed for being a complete ass and not taking his duties seriously. Would not get any support outside his caucus if he ran again at this point and his only firm ally on the LNC is Harlos. Even Mises-friendly reps like Nekhaila have been gently chiding his behavior. To accept nomination is simply self-serving preening and standing in the way of moving on.
Amash - commonly dropped name for this but why would he risk his remaining political capital presiding over such a recently-ablaze dumpster as this LNC?
Of course, nominations can take place up to the vote and it could end up being none of those listed in the end.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points) | June 19, 2021 02:18am |
It's a very regrettable turn of events, most of all because up to recently JBH had by all reasonable accounts been a fine leader. The course of events went something like this:
-LPNH sees influx of Free Staters that partner with Mises Caucus and sweep all positions except chair, where they supported Jiletta Jarvis as a compromise or somebody they thought they could push around depending on who you talk to.
-LPNH gives Twitter account access to a Free Stater who openly has supported using the Republican Party to advance liberty (lol) and badmouthed the LP, who then posted a bunch of inflammatory and childish **** that angered a lot of members across the country.
-LPNH votes to expel the wife of Darryl Perry for allegedly doxxing Jarvis as a contact person for anger over the tweets. This is controversial mostly because their bylaws have no method to expel members.
-Jarvis asks JBH for a letter affirming her as chair of the rightful affiliate and then bolts to form new organization with control over Internet accounts and member lists. Elected leadership retains bank accounts. Whether JBH knew she intended to do this is in dispute.
-After a couple days of drama JBH releases letter defending Jarvis and lamenting toxic influences that are trying to take over the party. Everybody recognizes this is meant to refer to the Mises Caucus.
-Doubling down, he calls LNC vote to disaffiliate elected LPNH leadership. This vote fails spectacularly with otherwise only the northeast region rep supporting it and then resigning. The chief reason for this opposition seems to be because of its undemocratic methods and questionable bylaw interpretation, especially because those are also both charges made against the MC.
-Elected LPNH starts to get access back to accounts, with Jarvis peddling lines about wanting an independent investigation or something like that.
-JBH resigns, but not before signing off on a vote brought by LNC rep Richard Longstreth to remove Caryn Ann Harlos as LNC secretary for her divisive and abhorrent behavior during the committee meetings on this issue, on top of generally being a nasty piece of work. I believe this vote is still underway but was winning earlier today.
-Fmr Senator Laura Ebke resigns as Pragmatic Caucus co-chair, which later disbands, saying that they formed to support electable candidates and don't care to play petty caucus games.
-Mises are screeching about removing Harlos because they see her as one of the few LNC members sympathetic to them. Some regional reps are mulling resignation, I'm also hearing, and most of the LNC are just really upset at what all has happened.
In short, it's a bunch of stupid petty **** that gets displayed for anybody who wants to watch because we conduct business in the open by nature and is ****ing embarassing. It's a win for MC in that JBH totally stepped in it and left, the Prag org is kaput, and their allies get their stuff back. Yet they're still pretending to hang on the cross because nutty Harlos might get the axe for being insufferable. Their opponents try to salvage some honor by resigning while their allies cling to what they have for all they've got. We'd all be better off if they quit while they're ahead and what's left of the LNC began acting like adults.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points) | May 01, 2021 03:59pm |
And Madison here looks like he could have been in the 18th century equivalent of Teen Vogue despite spending most of his life looking like a cave troll. Early proof that optics matters.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| LBT:10179 | Rufus ( 1087.27 points) | May 01, 2021 03:57pm |
Damn Monroe, oil that ratty wig. He looks older here than in his presidential portrait.
|
Race
|
|
|
|
|
