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If the US House has to elect the President in 2021...
Posted September 05, 2020 at 04:00pm by Chronicler

If you keep abreast of the kind of news stories where they discuss what happens if the presidential election is very close, you probably have read that under certain circumstances the Constitution states that the US House will elect the president. News stories pretty unanimously state that in such a case, Trump will be elected.

The Republicans currently control 26 states in the US House to 22 for the Democrats and two evenly divided. These proportions could change. This blog post considers the party control of the upcoming US House by state.

Of the Republican-controlled states, these states are almost certainly locked in for the upcoming Congress as well: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming. That comes to 20 of their current 26.

Republican control of six states could change. Alaska and Montana have a single Republican in the House, and in both cases the Democrats have a chance to win the seat. The Republicans have a narrow lead in the following states, with a varying chance of a shift in party control: Florida (14R, 13D); Kansas (3-1), and Wisconsin (5-3). North Carolina has new districts for 2020, and I think the Democrats will gain two seats (possibly three) but will probably remain in the minority of the 13 seats. These are the six Republican states that could change.

Two states are evenly divided between the parties. Pennsylvania has nine Democrats and Republicans. Michigan's delegation is temporarily 7-6-1 and I think will return to 7-7 to remain evenly divided.

The Democrats control these states that will not likely change this year: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawai'i, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, and Washington. That comes to 15 of the current 22 states controlled by the Democrats.

A few states could change control. In Arizona, the Democrats hold a 5-4 majority, so a single shift to the Republicans would hand control to the Republicans. The same is true for Colorado (4D, 3R). In the following states, a Republican net gain of a single seat would result in an evenly divided delegation: Iowa (3-1), Maine (2D), Minnesota (5-3), Nevada (3-1), and New Hampshire (2D). These are the seven states currently held by the Democrats that could change either to Republican control or evenly divided control.

For the Republicans to be able to elect Trump (if it comes to that), they will need to have 26 votes. It is certainly possible the Republicans will be able to maintain 26 early next year. The Democrats have a good opportunity to pick up control of three states: Alaska, Florida, and Montana. If they take all three, they will control 25 states, still not a majority. A chance exists that the Democrats can flip the Scott Perry seat in Pennsylvania, which would give them another state.

All said, it is likely that the Republicans will emerge from the 2020 election controlling 25-26 states, with the Democrats likely in the 23-24 seat range. The possibility exists that a shift towards the Democrats can give them control of 26 states.

It is not entirely safe to assume that the Republican control of 26 states will continue in the case of a contingent election between Trump and Biden. It remains a possibility, but as we have realized lately the prevailing opinion does not pan out as much as it used to!

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