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"A comprehensive, collaborative elections resource."
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UK Parliament - Batley & Spen - By-election
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| Parents |
> United Kingdom > England > Yorkshire & the Humber > Yorkshire & the Humber > Batley & Spen
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| Office | Parliament |
| Honorific | Member of Parliament - Abbr: MP |
| Type | By-election |
| Filing Deadline | June 07, 2021 - 12:00pm Central |
| Polls Open | July 01, 2021 - 01:00am Central |
| Polls Close | July 01, 2021 - 04:00pm Central |
| Term Start | July 02, 2021 - 12:00am |
| Term End | December 02, 2024 - 12:00pm |
| Contributor | BrentinCO |
| Last Modified | IndyGeorgia April 18, 2024 02:50pm |
| Data Sources | [Link]
[Link] |
| Description |
To fill the vacancy made available by the resignation of Tracy Brabin MP who was elected Mayor of West Yorkshire.
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CANDIDATES |
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| Photo |  |
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| Name |
Kim Leadbeater |
City Councillor
Ryan Stephenson |
MP
George Galloway |
Tom Gordon |
Corey Robinson |
Party Chairman
Therese Hirst |
Jack Thomson |
| Party | Labour |
Conservative |
Workers Party of Britain |
Liberal Democrats |
Yorkshire |
English Democrats |
UK Independence |
| Campaign Logo | |
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| Certified Votes |  13,296 (35.27%) |
12,973 (34.42%) |
8,264 (21.92%) |
1,254 (3.33%) |
816 (2.17%) |
207 (0.55%) |
151 (0.40%) |
| Margin | 0 (0.00%) |
-323 (-0.86%) |
-5,032 (-13.35%) |
-12,042 (-31.95%) |
-12,480 (-33.11%) |
-13,089 (-34.72%) |
-13,145 (-34.87%) |
| Predict Avg. | 39.45% |
46.25% |
8.85% |
2.35% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Cash On Hand |
$--
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| Website |
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[Campaign Site]
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| Entry Date |
05/23/2021
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05/20/2021
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05/27/2021
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06/03/2021
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05/26/2021
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06/07/2021
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06/07/2021
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| Bar | |
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| Adj Poll Avg | 41.93% -- |
48.66%-- |
21.74%-- |
1.49%-- |
0.00%-- |
0.00%-- |
0.00%-- |
Survation
06/09/21-06/17/21 |
41.00% -- |
47.00% -- |
6.00% -- |
3.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
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MORE CANDIDATES |
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| Name |
Party Leader
Alan "Howling Laud" Hope |
Michael Davies |
Paul Bickerdike |
Jonathon Tilt |
Anne Marie Waters |
Andrew Smith |
Ollie Purser |
| Party | Official Monster Raving Loony |
Alliance for Green Socialism |
Christian Peoples Alliance |
Freedom Alliance |
For Britain |
Rejoin EU |
Social Democratic |
| Campaign Logo | |
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| Certified Votes | 107 (0.28%) |
104 (0.28%) |
102 (0.27%) |
100 (0.27%) |
97 (0.26%) |
75 (0.20%) |
66 (0.18%) |
| Margin | -13,189 (-34.99%) |
-13,192 (-35.00%) |
-13,194 (-35.00%) |
-13,196 (-35.01%) |
-13,199 (-35.02%) |
-13,221 (-35.07%) |
-13,230 (-35.10%) |
| Predict Avg. | 0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Cash On Hand |
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| Entry Date |
06/04/2021
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06/07/2021
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06/07/2021
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06/07/2021
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06/03/2021
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06/04/2021
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06/03/2021
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| Adj Poll Avg | 0.00%-- |
0.00%-- |
0.00%-- |
0.00%-- |
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Survation
06/09/21-06/17/21 |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
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0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
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0.00% -- |
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| VIEW 2 MORE CANDIDATES |
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| INFORMATION LINKS |
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| DISCUSSION |
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| [View All 60 Previous Messages] |
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 I:6738 | IndyGeorgia ( 3906.0425 points)
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Sat, June 19, 2021 06:37:03 PM UTC0:00
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I mean, you could have just stopped with "Owen Jones all up in arms" and you would be describing any day of the week.
I mean, you could have just stopped with "Owen Jones all up in arms" and you would be describing any day of the week.
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The polls look really good here...but I can't force my brain to believe that the Tories are going to pick up another by-election in the spring of 2021. It's gonna be a squeaker...I'd say Leadbetter has about 55-60 percent chance of prevailing here.
The polls look really good here...but I can't force my brain to believe that the Tories are going to pick up another by-election in the spring of 2021. It's gonna be a squeaker...I'd say Leadbetter has about 55-60 percent chance of prevailing here.
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| Un:9757 | BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
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Mon, June 21, 2021 07:18:37 PM UTC0:00
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More Owen Jones up in arms...for 30 minutes. Its actually a pretty good preview of the by-election.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1407034703325114368?s=20
More Owen Jones up in arms...for 30 minutes. Its actually a pretty good preview of the by-election.
?s=20
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| Un:9757 | BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
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Tue, June 22, 2021 09:14:15 PM UTC0:00
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Its getting dirty. This is reportedly coming from within the Muslim community.
https://order-order.com/2021/06/22/exclusive-local-muslim-activists-warning-people-not-to-support-openly-lesbian-leadbeater/
image://i2.wp.com/order-order.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/3c6936da-d9dc-414c-9aa5-4fdc67ca4cba-1-e1624374498130.jpg?w=1600&ssl=1
Its getting dirty. This is reportedly coming from within the Muslim community.
[Link]
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I love that the stationary on which this originally appeared, features a sort of 17th century Cavalier motif.
I love that the stationary on which this originally appeared, features a sort of 17th century Cavalier motif.
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| Un:9757 | BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
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Mon, June 28, 2021 07:45:11 PM UTC0:00
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https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1409574896271773701?s=20
The Labour campaigners concede they’re in a tricky position. Leadbeater is a net positive. Voters know her. They like her. The local factor matters, they say. But it’s not enough. Their worry is not falling third, as some outlets report, but losing their base altogether. Labour needs to turn out its Asian supporters to keep the seat, and the likelihood of that happening feels low, especially given how the campaign has been turned dirty by Galloway.
How dirty are we talking? When Galloway stood in Bradford West in 2012 his supporters were accused of assaulting a Jewish journalist. In Batley, video footage has been released of supporters of Galloway chasing Leadbeater over her support for "LGBT indoctrination". This, done by the backers of a candidate who claims to be more left than Labour.
Batley and Spen is no Hartlepool. The demographic and economic profile makes Thursday's by-election a tighter fight. But the apparent success of Galloway in appealing to disenchanted electors has shaken things up.
?s=20
The Labour campaigners concede they’re in a tricky position. Leadbeater is a net positive. Voters know her. They like her. The local factor matters, they say. But it’s not enough. Their worry is not falling third, as some outlets report, but losing their base altogether. Labour needs to turn out its Asian supporters to keep the seat, and the likelihood of that happening feels low, especially given how the campaign has been turned dirty by Galloway.
How dirty are we talking? When Galloway stood in Bradford West in 2012 his supporters were accused of assaulting a Jewish journalist. In Batley, video footage has been released of supporters of Galloway chasing Leadbeater over her support for "LGBT indoctrination". This, done by the backers of a candidate who claims to be more left than Labour.
Batley and Spen is no Hartlepool. The demographic and economic profile makes Thursday's by-election a tighter fight. But the apparent success of Galloway in appealing to disenchanted electors has shaken things up.
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| I:9626 | Bojicat ( 786.8221 points)
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Wed, June 30, 2021 07:55:26 PM UTC0:00
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On the eve of tomorrow's vote, Britain's bookmakers see this as a bicycle kick for the Tories: "the Conservatives are now rated 80 per cent likely to gain the Batley and Spen constituency for the first time since 1992, at odds of 1.25" says betting tipster Paul Krishnamurty https://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/politics/article/batley-and-spen-byelection-odds and predicts that Stephenson "will win this by at least five per cent."
Bookmakers and analysts are mainly basing this Tory-on-top outcome on Galloway splitting the Left vote, PM Johnson's historically high popularity, and the Heavy Woollen District Independents opting out of the contest https://www.facebook.com/WoollenDistrict/ which benefits the Tories (the HWDI had 12.2% of the vote in 2019 - not to be sneezed at).
I can't say anymore that I disagree. Starmer's had it.
On the eve of tomorrow's vote, Britain's bookmakers see this as a bicycle kick for the Tories: "the Conservatives are now rated 80 per cent likely to gain the Batley and Spen constituency for the first time since 1992, at odds of 1.25" says betting tipster Paul Krishnamurty [Link] and predicts that Stephenson "will win this by at least five per cent."
Bookmakers and analysts are mainly basing this Tory-on-top outcome on Galloway splitting the Left vote, PM Johnson's historically high popularity, and the Heavy Woollen District Independents opting out of the contest [Link] which benefits the Tories (the HWDI had 12.2% of the vote in 2019 - not to be sneezed at).
I can't say anymore that I disagree. Starmer's had it.
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| Un:9757 | BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
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Wed, June 30, 2021 08:03:48 PM UTC0:00
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George Galloway
George Galloway
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| I:6738 | IndyGeorgia ( 3906.0425 points)
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Fri, July 2, 2021 02:03:54 AM UTC0:00
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https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1410762828219289601
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| I:6738 | IndyGeorgia ( 3906.0425 points)
 x2
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Fri, July 2, 2021 04:46:50 AM UTC0:00
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https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1410806709396848642
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| LBR:1802 | Old LW ( 622.1556 points)
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Fri, July 2, 2021 04:49:48 AM UTC0:00
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WOW... I mean, I'm inclined to say that's a hell of an upset, especially after the last couple of days. Good for Kim Leadbeater if that's the case.
WOW... I mean, I'm inclined to say that's a hell of an upset, especially after the last couple of days. Good for Kim Leadbeater if that's the case.
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| Un:9757 | BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
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Fri, July 2, 2021 04:50:42 AM UTC0:00
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After this campaign, if Labour win it would be HUGE!
After this campaign, if Labour win it would be HUGE!
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| Un:9757 | BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
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Fri, July 2, 2021 05:11:19 AM UTC0:00
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https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/1410812370084061184?s=21
?s=21
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| D:9362 | An_62190 ( 651.5887 points)
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Fri, July 2, 2021 05:12:33 AM UTC0:00
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https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1410812252219969541?s=20 labour appears to be ahead by less than 300 votes
?s=20 labour appears to be ahead by less than 300 votes
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| I:6738 | IndyGeorgia ( 3906.0425 points)
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Fri, July 2, 2021 05:14:34 AM UTC0:00
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Tory commentary will probably consist of Hancock fallout and Galloway nastiness leading to sympathy votes for Leadbeater.
Nevertheless, looks like a big personal vote for Leadbeater. She may have saved Sir Keir’s bacon.
Tory commentary will probably consist of Hancock fallout and Galloway nastiness leading to sympathy votes for Leadbeater.
Nevertheless, looks like a big personal vote for Leadbeater. She may have saved Sir Keir’s bacon.
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| Un:9757 | BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
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Fri, July 2, 2021 05:26:34 AM UTC0:00
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Poor Owen Jones. He's going to need to rewrite the article he wrote.
Poor Owen Jones. He's going to need to rewrite the article he wrote.
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| Un:9757 | BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
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Fri, July 2, 2021 05:27:19 AM UTC0:00
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22% for Galloway means he's not going away.
22% for Galloway means he's not going away.
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| Un:9757 | BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
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Fri, July 2, 2021 05:35:28 AM UTC0:00
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https://twitter.com/keir_starmer/status/1410817500913278981?s=21
?s=21
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| D:1989 | RBH ( 5212.2285 points)
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Fri, July 2, 2021 05:44:30 AM UTC0:00
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Shout out to the voters who went from Heavy Woollen District Independent to George Galloway.
2017: Tories get 38.8%, lose by 16.7%
2019: Tories get 36%, lose by 6.7%
2021: Tories get 34.4%, lose by 0.9%
So if the pace holds, they win the seat next time with 32% and a margin of 5%
Shout out to the voters who went from Heavy Woollen District Independent to George Galloway.
2017: Tories get 38.8%, lose by 16.7%
2019: Tories get 36%, lose by 6.7%
2021: Tories get 34.4%, lose by 0.9%
So if the pace holds, they win the seat next time with 32% and a margin of 5%
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| D:9362 | An_62190 ( 651.5887 points)
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Fri, July 2, 2021 06:12:23 AM UTC0:00
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sucks that results arent broken down by wards, wouldve been interesting to look at.
sucks that results arent broken down by wards, wouldve been interesting to look at.
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| I:6738 | IndyGeorgia ( 3906.0425 points)
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Fri, July 2, 2021 06:18:24 PM UTC0:00
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Labour doesn't have a lot of viable options to replace him. That may speak louder about the state of Labour than having a party leader with bad ratings.
Labour doesn't have a lot of viable options to replace him. That may speak louder about the state of Labour than having a party leader with bad ratings.
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| I:9951 | E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
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Fri, July 2, 2021 10:53:57 PM UTC0:00
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They did have a guy for that, but media is like "No no no"
They did have a guy for that, but media is like "No no no"
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| R:7114 | Kyle ( 752.3616 points)
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Fri, July 2, 2021 11:38:47 PM UTC0:00
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They did have a guy for that, but media is like "No no no"
If you're referring to Corbyn, I will gladly refer you to the results of the last election.
E Pluribus Unum: They did have a guy for that, but media is like "No no no"
If you're referring to Corbyn, I will gladly refer you to the results of the last election.
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| I:9951 | E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
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Sat, July 3, 2021 12:25:44 AM UTC0:00
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You mean the +6.66% lead as opposed to the +0.86% lead?
Yeah, replacing Corbyn after the nonstop media hitjob with a guy who is Tony Blair 2.0 will definetely save Labour...
You mean the +6.66% lead as opposed to the +0.86% lead?
Yeah, replacing Corbyn after the nonstop media hitjob with a guy who is Tony Blair 2.0 will definetely save Labour...
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| D:10973 | Patrick ( 0.0000 points)
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Sun, July 4, 2021 12:07:03 AM UTC0:00
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I mean the media is also piling on Starmer so I'm not sure I agree with this point
I mean the media is also piling on Starmer so I'm not sure I agree with this point
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