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  Peru President - Runoff
RACE DETAILS
Parents > Peru > President
OfficePresident
HonorificPresident - Abbr: President
Type General Election
Filing Deadline February 10, 2021 - 12:00pm Central
Polls Open June 06, 2021 - 07:00am Central
Polls Close June 06, 2021 - 07:00pm Central
Term Start July 28, 2021 - 12:00pm
Term End December 07, 2022 - 12:00pm
ContributorIndyGeorgia
Last ModifiedBojicat December 07, 2022 02:36pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description [Link]
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyPurple Won11/16/2020
NameFrancisco Sagasti Votes97 (78.86%)
Term11/17/2020 - 07/28/2021 Margin71 (+57.72%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyIndependent Won12/07/2022
NameDina Boluarte Zegarra Votes1 (100.00%)
Term12/07/2022 - 07/28/2026 Margin1 (+100.00%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Nov 29, 2020 Peru President - Morado Primary
Julio Guzmán
PM 3,924
Nov 29, 2020 Peru President - Acción Popular Primary
Yonhy Lescano
AP 22,239
Nov 29, 2020 Peru President - Aprista Primary
Nidia Vílchez
APRA 11,666
Apr 11, 2021 Peru President
Pedro Castillo
PL 2,724,752FP 1,930,762RP 1,692,279AP 1,674,201AP 1,306,288JP 1,132,577
APP 867,025VN 814,516PP 812,721PM 325,608PPC 286,447SP 240,234
PNP 230,831UPP 101,267RUNA 89,376FA 65,300PPS 55,644DD 50,802
TPP 0CONT 0APRA 0PN 0FE21 0
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
04/19/2021 06/06/2021
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Pedro Castillo 2 1 ----
Keiko Fujimori 3 1 ----
Leaning Call: Keiko Fujimori (55.56%)
Weighted Call: Pedro Castillo (78.55%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

04/28/2021 06/05/2021

CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name Pedro Castillo Keiko Fujimori  
PartyFree Peru Popular Force  
Campaign Logo  
Uncertified Votes 8,835,970 (50.13%) 8,791,730 (49.88%)  
Margin0 (0.00%) -44,240 (-0.25%)  
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand $-- $--  
Website  
Entry Date 02/10/2021 02/10/2021  
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (13 from 6 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg43.87%-- 40.68%--  
Ipsos 
06/05/21-06/05/21
44.10% 7.0 44.80% 4.1
IDICE 
05/28/21-05/29/21
43.90% 4.1 47.80% 4.2
Ipsos 
05/28/21-05/28/21
51.10% -- 48.90% --
Instituto de Estudios Peruanos (IEP) 
05/27/21-05/28/21
40.30% -- 38.30% --
CIT Peru 
05/27/21-05/28/21
40.60% 2.4 41.70% 4.4
Datum Internacional 
05/25/21-05/27/21
41.60% 0.4 41.50% 1.5
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements  


EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor
Jun 06, 2021 07:00am Jun 06, 2021 07:00pm Presidential Election Peru Presidential Run-off  Bojicat 

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
05/06/2021 Keiko Fujimori Music Video Feel Good spa KEIKO FUJIMORI - VAMOS PERUANOS 2021 (Fuerza Popular)  00:02:23 data 
01/16/2021 Keiko Fujimori Music Video Feel Good spa KEIKO FUJIMORI - LA FUERZA DE KEIKO (Electro Techno)  00:03:43 data 
07/20/2020 Keiko Fujimori TVAd Feel Good spa KEIKO FUJIMORI - ¡VAMOS KEIKO VAMOS! (Fuerza Popular) Sing A-long   00:04:18 data 
05/17/2020 Keiko Fujimori TVAd Feel Good spa KEIKO FUJIMORI - QUE LINDOS SON TUS OJOS (Dina Páucar)  00:02:01 data 
06/26/2016 Keiko Fujimori TVAd Feel Good spa CANCIÓN DE KEIKO PRESIDENTA 2021  00:04:16 data 

BOOKS
Title Purchase Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Apr 29, 2021 09:00pm News Peru presidential front-runner Castillo rushed to clinic, suspends campaigning  Article Bojicat 

DISCUSSION
[View All
34
Previous Messages]
 
I:9626Bojicat ( 786.8221 points)
Tue, April 20, 2021 09:05:02 PM UTC0:00
Would someone be kind enough to remove an entry above? The 'endorsement' of Pedro Castillo by Rafael López Aliaga is not quite the case [Link]

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Wed, April 21, 2021 04:17:19 AM UTC0:00
I'm a missing something or is this the dream matchup for Castillo and Free Peru?

They will get a democratic judgment on Fujimorism. And while there are alot of passionate Fujimorists - it is now where near a majority and most in Peru don't want to return to Fujimorism even if the other option is far left socialists.

 
I:9626Bojicat ( 786.8221 points)
Sat, May 8, 2021 09:28:43 PM UTC0:00
Fujimori starting to narrow the gap [Link] Could be a post-debate effect. Most of you may recall the same trendline benefiting Ecuador's Lasso post-debate, who was even further behind. Could we see a repeat here?

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Sat, May 8, 2021 11:41:15 PM UTC0:00
I don't think so, this is a bit different. Lasso was not the offspring of essentially their countries Pinochet

 
I:10931Gion915 ( 0.0000 points)
Tue, May 11, 2021 05:10:41 PM UTC0:00
I think Fujimori has a good chance at the presidency but Castillo being a populist could easily get some votes.

 
I:10931Gion915 ( 0.0000 points)
Wed, May 12, 2021 07:52:27 PM UTC0:00
Also let's not forget that in the 2016 Peruvian Elections Keiko Fujimori got 49.88% going against her opponent which was way more moderate than this one so many Fujimori supporters from 2016 will vote for her in 2021. And in 2016 polls showed Kuczynski support as higher than 40%, and while Fujimori is also underperforming her poll numbers her loosing margins are a lot more narrower so I wouldn't be surprised if Fujimori got a lot of the undecided vote.

 
I:9626Bojicat ( 786.8221 points)
Sat, May 22, 2021 05:03:30 PM UTC0:00
This Sunday the 23rd in Peru will feature a live televised debate of philosophies between select members of Fujimori's Popular Force party and Castillo's Free Peru party [Link] Members of the debating teams on each side are divided up to debate seven categories, which are - reform of the state; economic recovery and poverty reduction; health and management of the pandemic; infrastructure, regional development and decentralization; citizen security, and the environment.

The individuals selected are mainly politicians (mayors, proposed vice presidents, et al.) and technocrats (development bank presidents, noted lawyers, et al.).

This is a marvelous, fascinating rarely-practiced concept - unfettered free and open discourse of diametrically opposing ideas on live TV separated by categories tag-teamed by representatives of each party (instead of the party's leader and candidate). Viewers get to hear unfiltered contrary thoughts in a widened tableaux. This is quite welcome.

 
I:9626Bojicat ( 786.8221 points)
Sat, May 29, 2021 04:15:37 PM UTC0:00
Sunday, May 30 is an important day. We will we see a final debate between the two candidates. It is also the last day pollsters are allowed to present poll results, in accordance with Organic Law on Elections No. 26859 [Link] . Expect a small avalanche of final polls tomorrow.

 
I:9626Bojicat ( 786.8221 points)
Sun, June 6, 2021 11:48:17 PM UTC0:00
Exit polls will be released on Peruvian TV channels at 7pm (Peru Time) on the dot (7pm Central Time; 8pm Eastern Time). Lot of excitement and anticipation there. ONPE will announce preliminary results at 11:30pm (12:30pm EST).

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Sun, June 6, 2021 11:51:58 PM UTC0:00
This is coming down to the wire and I'm not sure we can gather anything from the polls except that it'll be close.

 
I:9626Bojicat ( 786.8221 points)
Mon, June 7, 2021 01:25:05 AM UTC0:00
Exit poll results: Fujimori 50.3% Castillo 49.7% [Link] and [Link]

 
I:9626Bojicat ( 786.8221 points)
Mon, June 7, 2021 03:34:31 PM UTC0:00
Que mordedor de uñas.

 
I:9626Bojicat ( 786.8221 points)
Mon, June 7, 2021 04:11:34 PM UTC0:00
The anticipation is expected to last until Wednesday [Link] - rural votes today, returns from Peruvians abroad "between Tuesday and Wednesday."

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Mon, June 7, 2021 05:00:42 PM UTC0:00
Bojicat: The anticipation is expected to last until Wednesday [Link] - rural votes today, returns from Peruvians abroad "between Tuesday and Wednesday."

Peruvians abroad should favor Keiko right? Will that be enough to pull her back in the lead?

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 3906.0425 points)
Mon, June 7, 2021 05:30:56 PM UTC0:00
I would think they would favor Keiko for economic reasons. Maybe there are some who fled during the Alberto Fujimori years and wouldn't like her? My Peruvian history knowledge is limited.

20% of the expat vote is in and Fujimori leads 64-36 (35K to 20K). Don't know how many raw votes this will end up being, though.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Mon, June 7, 2021 07:19:07 PM UTC0:00
Maybe Keiko will become the next Guaido or Añez.

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Mon, June 7, 2021 10:13:44 PM UTC0:00
E Pluribus Unum: Maybe Keiko will become the next Guaido or Añez.

Honestly, in a race this close, I can see both of them claiming victory. Both sides have already claim vote fraud.

Claiming vote fraud its quite trendy now whether you are from America, Israel, or even South America.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Tue, June 8, 2021 12:44:16 AM UTC0:00
To be fair, Castillo has mostly stuck to "Let's count every vote".

Keiko legit has no leg to stand on claiming voter fraud, of course this marxist that has like no power rigged an election lol

 
I:9626Bojicat ( 786.8221 points)
Tue, June 8, 2021 03:27:48 PM UTC0:00
More on the diaspora vote. Returns are being counted in the US (41 percent so far) and Fujimor1 picked up a huge 30,631, which represents 78% support v 22% for Castillo [Link] Comparable percentages are being recorded elsewhere, as counting is continuing in Europe, Asia and the rest of Latin America (Spain and Italy just opened, France not yet).

 
R:7501Maryland Republican ( 3667.0837 points)
Tue, June 8, 2021 10:56:02 PM UTC0:00
Any ideas how many votes are outstanding both in the country and abroad?

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 3906.0425 points)
Tue, June 8, 2021 11:07:00 PM UTC0:00
The site lists the number of registered voters in the country and abroad, so I guess you could extrapolate based on current turnout figures. I don't know how accurate that would be, though.

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 3906.0425 points)
Wed, June 9, 2021 12:54:55 PM UTC0:00
All expat voting has been counted. Still 5% of the vote in Cusco to be counted, as well as a smattering of Junin & Loreto votes.

 
I:9775Natalie ( 108.7084 points)
Wed, June 9, 2021 06:30:15 PM UTC0:00
Wildest election I’ve watched live

 
I:9626Bojicat ( 786.8221 points)
Thu, June 10, 2021 01:18:26 AM UTC0:00
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