Susan Wright will take away Sery Kim's and Brian Harrison's voters by former President Donald Trump's endorsement.

Who do you you all think will come dead last out of this field of candidates? Just a hunch, but my vote for dead last will be Michael Ballantine.

^ you’re probably right... I would also nominate Travis Rodermund and Manuel Salazar for that role as well lol. I would absolutely love if it was Dan Rodimer but I know that won’t happen.

looking at the sample ballots Overall, I think Phil Gray or Adrian Mizher might finish last due to being a third party candidate and having a potentially unfavorable ballot position. In Ellis County, Sery Kim and Matt Hinterlong are at the bottom of the ballot among Rs/Ds. Manuel Salazar and Michael Wood are at the top. Sanchez is the 4th highest Democrat on the ballot, in-between Suprun and Susan Wright. In Navarro County, Salazar is the Democrat at the bottom and Wood is the Republican at the bottom. Phil Gray is second from the bottom. Michael Ballantine and Brian Stephenson are the highest R/D on the ballot. In Tarrant, Rodermund and Bean are at the bottom for Rs/Ds. Mizher is second from the bottom. Allison and Ballantine are at the top among Ds/Rs. Considering how many votes are in Tarrant compared to Ellis/Navarro, Allison might get some votes purely for being the first Democrat. Jana Sanchez is 3rd on the ballot (in-between Ballantine and Castro). Lassiter is sorta lost in the shuffle down the line. If Wright is over a 1/3rd of the vote, that would make it easier to get a D into second place. Say if 53% of voters vote for Rs and 45% for Ds, then the better Wright does, the less room there is to get a second R ahead of the first D, short of the D vote being split more than just Sanchez/Bean/Lassiter. If Wright is in the mid-20s, then anything can happen for the runoff. It could be Wright/Harrison or Wright/Sanchez or whatever.

Interesting about ballot positions. Agreed that could play a factor. Trump was in the district campaigning for Wright. That probably also play into the results some. I wonder how much having an hispanic surname will play in this election. In Colorado it helps, and the polls usually under-predict support for candidates with hispanic surnames.

tomorrow is also the Municipal election day, so it's also possible that turnout will be above average in various incorporated areas but maybe below average in unincorporated areas.

Lassiter seemed like a good candidate to rally around, only partially in retrospect

There is a timeline where Blaire White ran as a write-in candidate in this election btw