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  TX District 06 - Special Election
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Texas > TX - District 06
OfficeHouse of Representatives
Type Primary Election
Filing Deadline March 03, 2021 - 05:00pm Central
Polls Open May 01, 2021 - 06:00am Central
Polls Close May 01, 2021 - 07:00pm Central
Term Start June 07, 2021 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2023 - 12:00pm
# Winners2
Turnout 6.01% Total Population
ContributorCaliforniaModerate
Last ModifiedRBH May 02, 2021 12:21am
Data Sources[Link]
[Link]
Description To fill the seat vacated by the death of Representative Ron Wright.

If no candidate wins a majority, a runoff between the top two finishers will occur on some unknown future date.
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/03/2020
NameRon Wright Votes179,507 (52.80%)
Term01/03/2021 - 02/07/2021 Margin29,977 (+8.82%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
RaceTX District 06 - Special Runoff 07/27/2021
MAP

Curve
Embed Code Data
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
02/23/2021 05/01/2021
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Susan Wright 7 4 ----
Jake Ellzey 1 ------
Leaning Call: Susan Wright (93.75%)
Weighted Call: Susan Wright (99.77%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

03/09/2021 04/24/2021

CANDIDATES (2 Winners)
Photo
Name Susan Wright St. Rep. Jake Ellzey Jana Lynne Sanchez Brian Harrison Shawn Lassiter John Anthony Castro Tammy Allison
PartyRepublican Republican Democratic Republican Democratic Republican Democratic
Campaign Logo
Uncertified Votes15,052 (19.21%) 10,851 (13.85%) 10,497 (13.39%) 8,476 (10.82%) 6,964 (8.89%) 4,321 (5.51%) 4,238 (5.41%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -4,201 (-5.36%) -4,555 (-5.81%) -6,576 (-8.39%) -8,088 (-10.32%) -10,731 (-13.69%) -10,814 (-13.80%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand 4/11 $128,210.92 4/11 $400,277.00 4/11 $96,193.99 4/11 $382,768.19 $-- $-- $--
Website [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site]
Entry Date 02/24/2021 02/24/2021 02/21/2021 03/02/2021 02/23/2021 02/21/2021 03/03/2021
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (4 from 4 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg19.42%-- 12.85%-- 14.34%-- 10.52%-- 5.53%-- 3.00%-- 1.00%--
Data for Progress 
04/05/21-04/24/21
22.00% -- 13.00% -- 16.00% -- 10.00% -- 10.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Meeting Street Research 
04/11/21-04/13/21
15.00% -- 14.00% -- 16.00% -- 12.00% -- 3.00% -- 3.00% -- 1.00% --
Global Strategy Group (D) 
03/11/21-03/16/21
18.00% -- 8.00% -- 9.00% -- 6.00% -- 4.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Victoria Research and Consulting 
03/09/21-03/12/21
21.00% -- 8.00% -- 17.00% -- 0.00% -- 3.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Lydia Bean Michael Wood Michael Ballantine Dan Rodimer Daryl Eddings Mike Egan Patrick Moses
PartyDemocratic Republican Republican Republican Democratic Republican Democratic
Campaign Logo
Uncertified Votes2,920 (3.73%) 2,503 (3.19%) 2,224 (2.84%) 2,086 (2.66%) 1,652 (2.11%) 1,543 (1.97%) 1,189 (1.52%)
Margin-12,132 (-15.48%) -12,549 (-16.01%) -12,828 (-16.37%) -12,966 (-16.54%) -13,400 (-17.10%) -13,509 (-17.24%) -13,863 (-17.69%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $-- 4/11 $74,981.58 $-- $-- 4/11 $3,553.96 4/11 $77,566.49 4/11 $14,596.56
Website [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Website] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site]
Entry Date 02/23/2021 03/02/2021 03/03/2021 03/03/2021 03/03/2021 03/02/2021 02/27/2021
MATCHUP POLLS (4 from 4 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg6.23%-- 1.00%-- 0.00%-- 2.46%-- 0.00%-- 1.00%-- -1.09%--
Data for Progress 
04/05/21-04/24/21
9.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Meeting Street Research 
04/11/21-04/13/21
5.00% -- 1.00% -- 0.00% -- 2.00% -- 0.00% -- 1.00% -- 0.00% --
Global Strategy Group (D) 
03/11/21-03/16/21
6.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 1.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 2.00% --
Victoria Research and Consulting 
03/09/21-03/12/21
5.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 2.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
VIEW 9 MORE CANDIDATES

DROPPED OUT - NO VOTES
Jeff Williams (R)
Dec 25, 2021
Konni Burton (R)
Mar 02, 2021
Andy Nguyen (R)
Mar 02, 2021
Katrina Pierson (R)
Mar 02, 2021
Stephen Daniel (D)
Feb 23, 2021
Cary Moon (R)
Feb 21, 2021

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DISCUSSION
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2
Previous Messages]
 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 3579.9236 points)
Sun, April 25, 2021 03:06:13 AM UTC0:00
After all the votes are counted...
After all the votes are counted, where will Dan Rodimer finish?
6 or 7 7 (53.84%)
8-14 4 (30.76%)
Somewhere between 3-5 1 (7.69%)
In OC "View More Candidates" territory 15th or below 1 (7.69%)
Top 2 0 (0%)
13 Votes Cast
Polls Close May 01, 2021 07:00pm

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 3579.9236 points)
Tue, April 27, 2021 01:57:27 AM UTC0:00
?s=20

 
R:10626Politics Addict ( 0.1292 points)
Wed, April 28, 2021 12:43:50 AM UTC0:00
Susan Wright will take away Sery Kim's and Brian Harrison's voters by former President Donald Trump's endorsement.

 
N:10422CaliforniaModerate ( 211.7651 points)
Wed, April 28, 2021 01:40:19 AM UTC0:00
Who do you you all think will come dead last out of this field of candidates?

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 3579.9236 points)
Wed, April 28, 2021 05:37:29 AM UTC0:00
CaliforniaModerate: Who do you you all think will come dead last out of this field of candidates?

Just a hunch, but my vote for dead last will be Michael Ballantine.

 
N:10422CaliforniaModerate ( 211.7651 points)
Thu, April 29, 2021 09:33:38 AM UTC0:00
^ you’re probably right... I would also nominate Travis Rodermund and Manuel Salazar for that role as well lol. I would absolutely love if it was Dan Rodimer but I know that won’t happen.

 
D:1989RBH ( 4416.9897 points)
Fri, April 30, 2021 10:22:39 PM UTC0:00
looking at the sample ballots

Overall, I think Phil Gray or Adrian Mizher might finish last due to being a third party candidate and having a potentially unfavorable ballot position.

In Ellis County, Sery Kim and Matt Hinterlong are at the bottom of the ballot among Rs/Ds. Manuel Salazar and Michael Wood are at the top. Sanchez is the 4th highest Democrat on the ballot, in-between Suprun and Susan Wright.

In Navarro County, Salazar is the Democrat at the bottom and Wood is the Republican at the bottom. Phil Gray is second from the bottom. Michael Ballantine and Brian Stephenson are the highest R/D on the ballot.

In Tarrant, Rodermund and Bean are at the bottom for Rs/Ds. Mizher is second from the bottom. Allison and Ballantine are at the top among Ds/Rs.

Considering how many votes are in Tarrant compared to Ellis/Navarro, Allison might get some votes purely for being the first Democrat. Jana Sanchez is 3rd on the ballot (in-between Ballantine and Castro). Lassiter is sorta lost in the shuffle down the line.

If Wright is over a 1/3rd of the vote, that would make it easier to get a D into second place. Say if 53% of voters vote for Rs and 45% for Ds, then the better Wright does, the less room there is to get a second R ahead of the first D, short of the D vote being split more than just Sanchez/Bean/Lassiter.

If Wright is in the mid-20s, then anything can happen for the runoff. It could be Wright/Harrison or Wright/Sanchez or whatever.

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 3579.9236 points)
Fri, April 30, 2021 10:36:33 PM UTC0:00
Interesting about ballot positions. Agreed that could play a factor.

Trump was in the district campaigning for Wright. That probably also play into the results some.

I wonder how much having an hispanic surname will play in this election. In Colorado it helps, and the polls usually under-predict support for candidates with hispanic surnames.

 
D:1989RBH ( 4416.9897 points)
Fri, April 30, 2021 11:11:36 PM UTC0:00
tomorrow is also the Municipal election day, so it's also possible that turnout will be above average in various incorporated areas but maybe below average in unincorporated areas.

 
D:1989RBH ( 4416.9897 points)
Sun, May 2, 2021 03:19:17 AM UTC0:00
The "vote for the first Democrat on the ballot" Tammy Allison vote from Tarrant is probably gonna make this an R vs R runoff.

 
D:10973Patrick ( 0.0000 points)
Sun, May 2, 2021 04:35:44 AM UTC0:00
Lassiter seemed like a good candidate to rally around, only partially in retrospect

 
D:10229State Legislatures Big Fan ( 47.3658 points)
Sun, May 2, 2021 04:37:22 PM UTC0:00
I am very much ready for DEMS IN DISSARAY takes in the upcoming weeks.

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 390.3564 points)
Mon, May 3, 2021 08:30:24 PM UTC0:00
I'm pretty sure we're just seeing the usual pattern of the incumbent party being about to get clobbered in next year's midterms (with some previews of that occurring this year).