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  CA Governor - Recall Replacement
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > California > Governor > Attempted Recall of Gavin Newsom > Newsom Recall Replacement Candidate
OfficeGovernor
HonorificGovernor - Abbr: Gov.
Type Recall
Filing Deadline July 16, 2021 - 12:00am Central
Polls Open September 14, 2021 - 09:00am Central
Polls Close September 14, 2021 - 10:00pm Central
Term Start September 15, 2021 - 12:00pm
Term End September 14, 2021 - 12:00pm
ContributorRP
Last ModifiedRBH October 22, 2021 07:20pm
Data Sources[Link]
[Link]
Description Over 50% of the voters voted “no” on the Recall Question. Accordingly, Governor Newsom was not recalled and the winner of this race did not take office.
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
02/23/2021 09/14/2021
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Larry A. Elder 11 1 2 --
Kevin L. Faulconer --1 ----
Kevin Paffrath 1 ------
Leaning Call: Larry A. Elder (86.36%)
Weighted Call: Larry A. Elder (96.58%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

04/29/2021 09/10/2021

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Larry A. Elder Kevin Paffrath Mayor Kevin L. Faulconer Brandon M. Ross John H. Cox St. Rep. Kevin P. Kiley Jacqueline McGowan
PartyRepublican Democratic Republican Democratic Republican Republican Democratic
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes 3,563,867 (48.41%) 706,778 (9.60%) 590,346 (8.02%) 392,029 (5.33%) 305,095 (4.14%) 255,490 (3.47%) 214,242 (2.91%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -2,857,089 (-38.81%) -2,973,521 (-40.39%) -3,171,838 (-43.09%) -3,258,772 (-44.27%) -3,308,377 (-44.94%) -3,349,625 (-45.50%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
Website [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Website]
Entry Date 07/21/2021 05/20/2021 02/01/2021 07/00/2021 01/30/2021 07/06/2021 07/00/2021
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (15 from 8 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg29.91%-- 6.91%-- 4.53%-- 1.93%-- 4.26%-- 2.85%-- 2.74%--
Data for Progress 
09/02/21-09/10/21
22.00% -- 6.00% -- 4.00% -- 5.00% -- 7.00% -- 3.00% -- 4.00% --
Survey USA 
09/07/21-09/08/21
29.00% 2.0 9.00% 3.0 6.00% 1.0 3.00% 2.0 8.00% 2.0 3.00% 2.0 4.00% 1.0
Suffolk University 
09/06/21-09/07/21
39.48% -- 4.72% -- 4.72% -- 1.72% -- 3.86% -- 1.72% -- 1.72% --
University of California - Berkeley 
08/30/21-09/06/21
38.00% 20.0 10.00% 7.0 8.00% 2.0 0.00% -- 4.00% 6.0 4.00% 1.0 0.00% --
Trafalgar Group 
09/02/21-09/04/21
32.40% 3.2 13.40% 8.6 3.60% 0.5 0.00% -- 2.70% 1.4 3.50% -- 2.80% --
Trafalgar Group 
08/26/21-08/29/21
29.20% -- 22.00% -- 4.10% -- 0.00% -- 4.10% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Joel Ventresca Daniel Watts Holly L. Baade Patrick Kilpatrick Armando "Mando" Perez-Serrato Caitlyn Jenner John R. Drake
PartyDemocratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Republican Democratic
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes 186,345 (2.53%) 167,355 (2.27%) 92,218 (1.25%) 86,617 (1.18%) 85,061 (1.16%) 75,215 (1.02%) 68,545 (0.93%)
Margin-3,377,522 (-45.88%) -3,396,512 (-46.14%) -3,471,649 (-47.16%) -3,477,250 (-47.24%) -3,478,806 (-47.26%) -3,488,652 (-47.39%) -3,495,322 (-47.48%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
Website [Website] [Campaign Site] [Website] [Website] [Campaign Site] [Website]
Entry Date 07/00/2021 07/00/2021 07/00/2021 07/00/2021 07/16/2021 04/23/2021 07/00/2021
MATCHUP POLLS (15 from 8 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg1.42%-- 1.47%-- 0.83%-- 1.47%-- -0.57%-- 1.28%-- 1.58%--
Data for Progress 
09/02/21-09/10/21
0.00% -- 3.00% -- 2.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 1.00% -- 0.00% --
Survey USA 
09/07/21-09/08/21
2.00% -- 2.00% -- 4.00% 1.0 2.00% -- 1.00% 2.0 2.00% -- 4.00% 2.0
Suffolk University 
09/06/21-09/07/21
3.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.43% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.86% -- 1.29% --
University of California - Berkeley 
08/30/21-09/06/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% 3.0 0.00% --
Trafalgar Group 
09/02/21-09/04/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 1.30% 0.2 0.00% --
Trafalgar Group 
08/26/21-08/29/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 1.10% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
R Chilp3
VIEW 39 MORE CANDIDATES

DROPPED OUT - NO VOTES
John Moorlach (R)
Jul 17, 2021
Ye (I)
Jul 17, 2021
Mary Carey (I)
Apr 13, 2021 - Jul 16, 2021
Richard Grenell (R)
Jul 16, 2021
Louis J. Marinelli, III (NPA)
Jun 30, 2021 - Jul 16, 2021
Tom Steyer (D)
Mar 31, 2021

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
09/08/2021 Larry A. Elder Issue Video Issue eng Angry Liberal in Gorilla Mask throws Egg at Larry Elder!  00:05:33 data 
09/05/2021 Kevin Paffrath Event Video Issue eng California Cop purposefully SLAMS GATE at Governor Candidate  00:01:01 data 
08/26/2021 Angelyne Web Only Ad Feel Good eng Governor Angelyne: I Love You  00:00:04 data 
08/22/2021 TVAd Issue eng Recall In The Air Tonight (Gavin Newsom California Recall Song)  00:01:32 data 
05/11/2021 Caitlyn Jenner Web Only Ad Mixed eng Caitlyn for California  00:02:59 BrentinCO 
04/19/2021 Angelyne TVAd Mixed eng Angelyne: Official Announcement for California Governor Campaign  00:00:05 data 
12/15/2020 vs Music Video Mixed eng "Recall Gavin Newsom" Song by Zuma Dogg  00:03:33 data 

BOOKS
Title Purchase Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Sep 09, 2021 10:00pm News Larry Elder egged by woman in gorilla mask in 'racist' attack in California  Article data 
Sep 04, 2021 12:00am News California Democratic challenger says he was barred from entering Newsom’s ‘Stop the Republican Recall’ rally  Article data 
Apr 26, 2021 07:00pm News California effort to recall Gavin Newsom gets signatures needed to trigger vote  Article IndyGeorgia 
Apr 23, 2021 01:00pm News Caitlyn Jenner Announces Run For California Governor  Article Bojicat 
Feb 01, 2021 03:00pm News John Cox says he wants to run for governor again, which is likely bad news for Calif. Republicans  Article BrentinCO 

DISCUSSION
[View All
112
Previous Messages]
 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4947.9873 points)
x2
Sat, May 8, 2021 01:49:11 PM UTC0:00
My Congressman is a Weiner: Voting just to “piss off everyone” seems nihilistic to me.

In fact, that is exactly what brought us Trump.

 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
Tue, May 11, 2021 05:04:00 PM UTC0:00

 
I:10931Gion915 ( 0.0000 points)
Tue, May 11, 2021 06:01:18 PM UTC0:00
I really doubt Kanye West will run for California governor, he hasn't even filled paperwork, very difficult for him to come just at last hour, he isn't even on wikipedia, the only evidence we have is Kanye West expressing interest in running.
I think he should be removed from the list unless he expresses interest to run in this race.

 
I:10931Gion915 ( 0.0000 points)
Tue, May 11, 2021 06:04:42 PM UTC0:00
Also there are other declared candidates according to some sources.

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Sun, July 18, 2021 05:10:54 AM UTC0:00
?s=21

 
D:10973Patrick ( 0.0000 points)
x2
Sun, July 18, 2021 10:02:05 PM UTC0:00
It's that commitment to public service that will propel her to victory

 
I:9775Natalie ( 108.7084 points)
x3
Mon, July 19, 2021 02:20:57 PM UTC0:00
Caitlyn for Governor

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Mon, July 19, 2021 05:47:12 PM UTC0:00
?s=20

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Mon, July 19, 2021 05:49:08 PM UTC0:00
I imagine Elder will sue to get on the ballot, but as of now he's off.

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.2285 points)
Wed, July 21, 2021 02:38:49 AM UTC0:00
after the random alphabet drawing, the top Democrat is Patrick Kilpatrick and the top Republican is Chauncey "Slim" KIllens. Kevin Kiley is the top Republican among the ones who have won an election

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 520.1045 points)
Wed, July 21, 2021 08:48:05 PM UTC0:00
There were 135 candidates last time. What explains such a marked decline (to 41)?

I think perhaps it's a lot more intimidating to involve one's self in politics, as compared to just eighteen years ago.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Wed, July 21, 2021 09:43:40 PM UTC0:00
This one is less likely to actually work so nobody really cares about this race at all

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Wed, July 21, 2021 10:14:41 PM UTC0:00
E Pluribus Unum: This one is less likely to actually work so nobody really cares about this race at all

Sorta agree. I think it was a foregone conclusion based on Gray Davis dismal approvals in 2003. Newsome is no where near that yet, infact most polls on the recall question favor NO on the recall. Compared to 2003 when the polls consistently favored YES on recall.
[Link]

 
D:10973Patrick ( 0.0000 points)
Thu, July 22, 2021 12:05:37 AM UTC0:00
Not looking forward to this undeserved "vote of confidence" that Newsom is about to get.

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.2285 points)
Thu, July 22, 2021 01:22:41 AM UTC0:00
Hikikomori Blitzkrieg!: There were 135 candidates last time. What explains such a marked decline (to 41)?

even if it's just 65 signatures, I suspect that putting up the effort for signatures plus a fee is a little more daunting right now compared to 2003 unless you have enough friends or you're willing to approach strangers with a clipboard right now.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Thu, July 22, 2021 01:39:16 AM UTC0:00
BrentinCO: Sorta agree. I think it was a foregone conclusion based on Gray Davis dismal approvals in 2003. Newsome is no where near that yet, infact most polls on the recall question favor NO on the recall. Compared to 2003 when the polls consistently favored YES on recall.
[Link]
Because Grey had an actual reason to be recalled which Republicans used to get people to vote against him and give the GOP a powergrab. Newsom's recall has less actual reasons people care about and is a lot more transparent in its fakeness

 
N:10422CaliforniaModerate ( 388.7347 points)
Thu, July 22, 2021 02:27:25 AM UTC0:00
[Link]


A judge has reinstated Larry Elders position on the ballot after being initially struck by the Secretary of State.

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 520.1045 points)
Thu, July 22, 2021 06:54:55 PM UTC0:00
If Faulconer wasn't a terrible candidate, he'd have picked up some traction by now.

 
R:250Mr. Politics ( 190.1725 points)
Sat, July 24, 2021 11:13:15 PM UTC0:00
BrentinCO: <q 9951="">This one is less likely to actually work so nobody really cares about this race at all

Sorta agree. I think it was a foregone conclusion based on Gray Davis dismal approvals in 2003. Newsome is no where near that yet, infact most polls on the recall question favor NO on the recall. Compared to 2003 when the polls consistently favored YES on recall.
[Link]


It was not a foregone conclusion on this site that Davis would be recalled back in 2003.

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Sun, July 25, 2021 12:03:16 AM UTC0:00
One thing that happened in the 2003 recall in my opinion is that Schwarzenegger presented himself (and a few others) as competent alternatives to Gray Davis. Thus pushing more people to vote for the recall.

I don't think this race is over yet. Campaigns do matter.

Im curious to see if Elders breaks out as the campaign ramps up and if that impacts the numbers for Newsom's recall.

Elders is a proponent of abolishing the IRS. What if he runs on a platform of abolishing the California Personal Income Tax and/or Corporate Income Tax. I can see that as being popular and positioning him as a credible alternative to Newsom driving up recall numbers.

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 520.1045 points)
Sat, July 31, 2021 01:12:48 AM UTC0:00
In 2003, Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante ran more to bring out Democrats (who'd presumably tend to vote NO in the Recall), rather than as a viable candidate against Schwarzenegger. It didn't work, but the final result was a bit closer than expected.

With effectively no Democrat on the ballot, will reduced Democratic turn-out possibly result in an unexpected outcome for Gruesome Newsom?

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 520.1045 points)
Sun, August 1, 2021 03:20:55 AM UTC0:00
This will come down to how happy people feel about current conditions in California.

If I were Newsom, I'd be worried.

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Mon, August 2, 2021 11:27:10 PM UTC0:00
San Diego Voters only

?s=20

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Mon, August 2, 2021 11:45:22 PM UTC0:00
Trying to make sense of a poll that shows almost 50% of San Diego voters supporting the recall with 20% of those same voters supporting Paffrath.

But maybe there is something to being an influencer with 1.6M followers. If Paffrath ends up starting to poll this level of support in other statewide polls, this race could get much more interesting.

Pewdiepie for Prime Minister of Sweden!

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.2285 points)
Thu, August 5, 2021 12:14:11 AM UTC0:00
Paffrath surging (because he's the only Democrat in the SurveyUSA poll)

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