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  OH US Senate - R Primary
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Ohio > Senate Class III
OfficeSenate
HonorificSenator - Abbr: Sen.
TypeRepublican Primary Election
Filing Deadline February 02, 2022 - 12:00pm Central
Polls Open May 03, 2022 - 05:30am Central
Polls Close May 03, 2022 - 06:30pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2023 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2029 - 12:00pm
ContributorRP
Last ModifiedRBH June 11, 2022 01:54am
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/08/2016
NameRob Portman Votes3,118,567 (58.03%)
Term01/03/2017 - 01/03/2023 Margin1,121,659 (+20.87%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/08/2022
NameJ.D. Vance Votes2,192,114 (53.03%)
Term01/03/2023 - 01/03/2029 Margin252,625 (+6.11%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
RaceOH US Senate 11/08/2022
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
01/26/2021 05/03/2022
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Josh Mandel 3 --1 --
J.D. Vance 7 4 ----
Matthew J. Dolan 4 ------
Leaning Call: J.D. Vance (60.00%)
Weighted Call: J.D. Vance (85.89%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

01/03/2021 05/01/2022

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name J.D. Vance Treasurer Josh Mandel St. Sen. Matthew J. Dolan Michael E. Gibbons Party Chairman Jane M. Timken Mark Pukita Neil Patel
PartyRepublican Republican Republican Republican Republican Republican Republican
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes 344,736 (32.22%) 255,854 (23.92%) 249,239 (23.30%) 124,653 (11.65%) 62,779 (5.87%) 22,692 (2.12%) 9,873 (0.92%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -88,882 (-8.31%) -95,497 (-8.93%) -220,083 (-20.57%) -281,957 (-26.36%) -322,044 (-30.10%) -334,863 (-31.30%)
Predict Avg.27.50% 24.50% 22.50% 13.50% 9.00% 1.00% 0.50%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
Website [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site]
Entry Date 07/01/2021 02/10/2021 09/20/2021 04/13/2021 02/18/2021 02/02/2022 02/02/2022
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (23 from 10 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg22.26%-- 18.97%-- 17.15%-- 14.41%-- 7.64%-- 1.95%-- 1.85%--
Trafalgar Group 
04/29/22-05/01/22
26.20% 3.6 20.80% 7.2 22.00% 10.4 13.10% 1.2 5.70% 1.8 1.90% 0.2 1.70% 0.9
Emerson College 
04/28/22-04/29/22
26.00% -- 24.00% -- 21.00% -- 17.00% -- 8.00% -- 2.00% -- 2.00% --
Fabrizio Lee (R) 
04/25/22-04/26/22
31.00% 6.0 19.00% 1.0 12.00% 3.0 12.00% 1.0 8.00% 3.0 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Blueprint Polling 
04/21/22-04/24/22
17.00% -- 11.70% -- 18.40% -- 13.00% -- 6.90% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Beacon Research (D) / Shaw & Company (R) - FOX News 
04/20/22-04/24/22
23.00% -- 18.00% -- 11.00% -- 13.00% -- 6.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Fabrizio Lee (R) 
04/18/22-04/19/22
25.00% 7.0 18.00% -- 9.00% -- 13.00% 5.0 11.00% 2.0 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements

DROPPED OUT - NO VOTES
Bernie Moreno (R)
Apr 06, 2021 - Feb 03, 2022
Warren Davidson (R)
 00, 2022
Mike Holt (R)
Aug 06, 2021 -  00, 2022
Frank LaRose (R)
 00, 2022
Vivek Ramaswamy (R)
 00, 2022
Darrell Scott (R)
 00, 2022
Mike Turner (R)
 00, 2022
Jim Renacci (R)
Jun 09, 2021
Bill Johnson (R)
May 26, 2021
Steve Stivers (R)
Apr 19, 2021
Brad Wenstrup (R)
Mar 29, 2021
Geraldo Rivera (R)
Mar 11, 2021
Dave Yost (R)
Feb 01, 2021
James "Jim" Jordan (R)
Jan 28, 2021
Jon Husted (R)
Jan 27, 2021
Rob Portman (R)
Jan 25, 2021

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
04/05/2022 J.D. Vance TVAd Issue eng Are You A Racist?  00:00:30 BrentinCO 
02/22/2022 Josh Mandel TVAd Biography eng Marine  00:00:30 RP 
01/18/2022 Michael E. Gibbons TVAd Mixed eng Pay  00:00:30 RP 
01/11/2022 vs Jane M. Timken TVAd Attack eng Know  00:00:30 RP 

BOOKS
Title Purchase Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Nov 16, 2021 06:00pm News Open Ohio Senate seat fueling wild GOP primary in key 2022 race  Article LEAPForward 

DISCUSSION
[View All
47
Previous Messages]
 
D:10973Patrick ( 0.0000 points)
Fri, June 4, 2021 01:50:09 AM UTC0:00
Now that COVID numbers are finally going down will be interesting to see if "encouraging your unvaccinated supporters to infect others with coronavirus" remains a workable campaign strategy.

 
R:11221Jewish conservative ( 297.1253 points)
Mon, January 3, 2022 08:25:22 PM UTC0:00
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Inbox: Rep Jim Banks (RSC chairman) endorses JD Vance in OH Sen primary</p>&mdash; James Arkin (@JamesArkin) <a href="
?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 10, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="[Link] charset="utf-8"></script>

 
R:10538Southern_Moderate2 ( 62.9320 points)
Tue, January 25, 2022 05:20:25 PM UTC0:00
Who is the least crazy candidate here? Timken?

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Tue, January 25, 2022 08:43:45 PM UTC0:00
I wonder if the MTG endorsement of JD Vance means that a Trump endorsement is forthcoming.

Once the campaign gets really started, he seems to have the highest ceiling.

 
R:10538Southern_Moderate2 ( 62.9320 points)
Tue, March 1, 2022 12:09:29 AM UTC0:00
I just want this race to be over so we can crown the king of the dumbasses.

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Sat, March 19, 2022 02:32:45 AM UTC0:00
Mandel seems like a real prick. Doesn't do much for Gibbons either.


 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.2285 points)
Sat, March 19, 2022 05:14:52 AM UTC0:00
so when does JD Vance see this and decide to try fighting one of the other candidates?

also, I know Mandel went to war and all, but I'm not sure he's the favorite in a fistfight here

 
R:7114Kyle ( 752.3616 points)
Thu, April 7, 2022 02:23:16 AM UTC0:00
Dolan-mentum!!

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Wed, April 27, 2022 01:25:08 AM UTC0:00
One week to go and this race is the definition of toss-up. But it would appear that in a close race, maybe Trumps recent endorsement of Vance is having a big impact.

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.2285 points)
Wed, April 27, 2022 02:24:59 AM UTC0:00
Dolan's poll led to a Trump statement where he denounced the Cleveland Indians/Guardians name change

 
R:250Mr. Politics ( 190.1725 points)
x3
Wed, April 27, 2022 06:53:23 PM UTC0:00
Anecdotal but it does feel like this is turning into a Vance vs Dolan race. We'll see.

 
LBT:10038Luzerne County Historian ( -406.9550 points)
Thu, April 28, 2022 01:08:48 AM UTC0:00
Come on Dolan, you can do it!

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 520.1045 points)
Thu, April 28, 2022 03:46:00 PM UTC0:00
Meanwhile....

Multiple sources tell Rolling Stone that it was Fox News host Tucker Carlson who spilled the dirt to Trump about McIntosh as evidence that Trump shouldn’t trust him.

“Carlson asserted… that McIntosh has an embarrassing and ‘chronic’ personal sexual habit,” the publication writes. “During that phone call, the twice-impeached former president spent a notable amount of time gossiping and laughing about the prominent Republican’s penis and how ‘f*cking disgusting’ and ‘f*cking gross’ he allegedly was.”

Additionally, reports Rolling Stone, Trump also suspected that there was something wrong with Mandel’s sexual habits.

“Trump had already displayed a long, abiding interest in Mandel’s own sex life, having already spent months privately regurgitating and spreading salacious, unverified rumors that he’s heard about ‘f*cking weird’ Mandel’s supposed debauched ongoings,” writes Rolling Stone. “Carlson’s comments about the proclivities of Mandel’s patron threw both Trump and his son into fits of laughter.”

 
I:9665ThatAlabamaGuy ( 39.6583 points)
x3
Mon, May 2, 2022 12:13:12 AM UTC0:00
Really do not feel like Mandel is going to do that well. Would not shock me to see him finish third or fourth.

 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
Mon, May 2, 2022 04:57:31 PM UTC0:00
Well, Trump has endorsed J.D. Mandel.

 
D:10973Patrick ( 0.0000 points)
Wed, May 4, 2022 01:35:35 AM UTC0:00
Trump forgetting who he endorsed has truly thrown this race wide open.

 
LBT:10038Luzerne County Historian ( -406.9550 points)
Wed, May 4, 2022 01:58:49 AM UTC0:00
From the results so far, it seems like the urban/suburban Republicans went more for Dolan. Vance is in the lead at the moment but alot of the suburban/urban votes still didn't come in yet whereas the rural ones are mostly done. Dolan could still pull ahead, depending who the remaining voters cast their ballots for.

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Wed, May 4, 2022 03:03:52 AM UTC0:00
ABC and AP called it for Vance. Ryan already out with a Vance attack ad.

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Wed, May 4, 2022 03:41:33 AM UTC0:00
With Vance winning the primary, who do you think is the biggest disappointment?
Biggest Ohio R Primary vote disappointment
Josh Mandel 12 (63.15%)
Jane Timken 4 (21.05%)
Michael Gibbons 2 (10.52%)
Matthew Dolan 1 (5.26%)
19 Votes Cast
Polls Close May 10, 2022 12:00am

 
R:10578justiceiscoming ( 1370.0793 points)
Thu, May 5, 2022 02:25:06 AM UTC0:00
In the expectation game, Gibbons lost. He was leading at one point, but collapsed towards the end. Although Timken did worse on election day, she never gained traction. Mandel did about as well as I expected, and Dolan did better.

 
R:6309CincinnatiReds1990 ( 187.4290 points)
Thu, May 5, 2022 03:52:18 AM UTC0:00
Luzerne County Historian: From the results so far, it seems like the urban/suburban Republicans went more for Dolan. Vance is in the lead at the moment but alot of the suburban/urban votes still didn't come in yet whereas the rural ones are mostly done. Dolan could still pull ahead, depending who the remaining voters cast their ballots for.


I was indeed one of those suburban Dolan votes. He came in 3rd in Clermont County.

However, I was pleasantly surprised DeWine carried Clermont. (Just east of Cincinnati) It is normally a very populist county and the local GOP endorsed Renacci.

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Thu, May 5, 2022 04:21:18 AM UTC0:00
I felt like this was Mandel's race to lose one he got in. That's why I chose him. But valid points about Gibbons having the lead and losing it.

It seems like it all started to unravel for both Mandel and Gibbons when they got into that debate fight. And Vance with Trump's endorsement started to pick up Mandel and Gibbons voters who were less tied to their candidate.

And from the looks of it, a larger share of Gibbons left their candidate for Vance.

As far as Timken goes - I always felt here numbers were inflated, partially because she had a lot of scammy internal polls she was releasing.

 
R:6309CincinnatiReds1990 ( 187.4290 points)
Fri, May 6, 2022 05:52:37 AM UTC0:00
BrentinCO: I felt like this was Mandel's race to lose one he got in. That's why I chose him. But valid points about Gibbons having the lead and losing it.

It seems like it all started to unravel for both Mandel and Gibbons when they got into that debate fight. And Vance with Trump's endorsement started to pick up Mandel and Gibbons voters who were less tied to their candidate.

And from the looks of it, a larger share of Gibbons left their candidate for Vance.

As far as Timken goes - I always felt here numbers were inflated, partially because she had a lot of scammy internal polls she was releasing.


Timken never even really held a real job anyway. She was just Trump's pick in the Trump vs. Kasich civil war for Ohio Republican Party chairperson. I've been hearing Portman probably wouldn't have even endorsed her so soon had Mrs. Portman not already been campaigning for Timken.

As far as Mandel goes. Yes, he was probably the favorite at one point, as he had the highest ranking Ohio job of the field. But he really picked a corner to stay in trying to be a Ted Cruz Republican. While a lot of voters like that, he really missed out on a lot of the more moderate votes that ended up going to Dolan in the end. (And he used to appeal to some of those moderate voters in his previous races)

If he wasn't looking for moderates, he needed the Trump endorsement, which he failed to get.

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