Home About Chat Users Issues Party Candidates Polling Firms Media News Polls Calendar Key Races United States President Senate House Governors International

New User Account
"A comprehensive, collaborative elections resource." 
Email: Password:

  OH US Senate - R Primary
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Ohio > Senate Class III
OfficeSenate
HonorificSenator - Abbr: Sen.
TypeRepublican Primary Election
Filing Deadline February 02, 2022 - 12:00pm Central
Polls Open May 03, 2022 - 05:30am Central
Polls Close May 03, 2022 - 06:30pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2023 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2029 - 12:00pm
ContributorRP
Last ModifiedRBH June 11, 2022 01:54am
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/08/2016
NameRob Portman Votes3,118,567 (58.03%)
Term01/03/2017 - 01/03/2023 Margin1,121,659 (+20.87%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/08/2022
NameJ.D. Vance Votes2,192,114 (53.03%)
Term01/03/2023 - 01/03/2029 Margin252,625 (+6.11%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
RaceOH US Senate 11/08/2022
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
01/26/2021 05/03/2022
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Josh Mandel 3 --1 --
J.D. Vance 7 4 ----
Matthew J. Dolan 4 ------
Leaning Call: J.D. Vance (60.00%)
Weighted Call: J.D. Vance (86.72%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

01/03/2021 05/01/2022

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name J.D. Vance Treasurer Josh Mandel St. Sen. Matthew J. Dolan Michael E. Gibbons Party Chairman Jane M. Timken Mark Pukita Neil Patel
PartyRepublican Republican Republican Republican Republican Republican Republican
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes 344,736 (32.22%) 255,854 (23.92%) 249,239 (23.30%) 124,653 (11.65%) 62,779 (5.87%) 22,692 (2.12%) 9,873 (0.92%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -88,882 (-8.31%) -95,497 (-8.93%) -220,083 (-20.57%) -281,957 (-26.36%) -322,044 (-30.10%) -334,863 (-31.30%)
Predict Avg.27.50% 24.50% 22.50% 13.50% 9.00% 1.00% 0.50%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
Website [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site]
Entry Date 07/01/2021 02/10/2021 09/20/2021 04/13/2021 02/18/2021 02/02/2022 02/02/2022
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (23 from 10 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg22.26%-- 18.97%-- 17.15%-- 14.41%-- 7.64%-- 1.95%-- 1.85%--
Trafalgar Group 
04/29/22-05/01/22
26.20% 3.6 20.80% 7.2 22.00% 10.4 13.10% 1.2 5.70% 1.8 1.90% 0.2 1.70% 0.9
Emerson College 
04/28/22-04/29/22
26.00% -- 24.00% -- 21.00% -- 17.00% -- 8.00% -- 2.00% -- 2.00% --
Fabrizio Lee (R) 
04/25/22-04/26/22
31.00% 6.0 19.00% 1.0 12.00% 3.0 12.00% 1.0 8.00% 3.0 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Blueprint Polling 
04/21/22-04/24/22
17.00% -- 11.70% -- 18.40% -- 13.00% -- 6.90% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Beacon Research (D) / Shaw & Company (R) - FOX News 
04/20/22-04/24/22
23.00% -- 18.00% -- 11.00% -- 13.00% -- 6.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Fabrizio Lee (R) 
04/18/22-04/19/22
25.00% 7.0 18.00% -- 9.00% -- 13.00% 5.0 11.00% 2.0 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements

DROPPED OUT - NO VOTES
Bernie Moreno (R)
Apr 06, 2021 - Feb 03, 2022
Warren Davidson (R)
 00, 2022
Mike Holt (R)
Aug 06, 2021 -  00, 2022
Frank LaRose (R)
 00, 2022
Vivek Ramaswamy (R)
 00, 2022
Darrell Scott (R)
 00, 2022
Mike Turner (R)
 00, 2022
Jim Renacci (R)
Jun 09, 2021
Bill Johnson (R)
May 26, 2021
Steve Stivers (R)
Apr 19, 2021
Brad Wenstrup (R)
Mar 29, 2021
Geraldo Rivera (R)
Mar 11, 2021
Dave Yost (R)
Feb 01, 2021
James "Jim" Jordan (R)
Jan 28, 2021
Jon Husted (R)
Jan 27, 2021
Rob Portman (R)
Jan 25, 2021

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
04/05/2022 J.D. Vance TVAd Issue eng Are You A Racist?  00:00:30 BrentinCO 
02/22/2022 Josh Mandel TVAd Biography eng Marine  00:00:30 RP 
01/18/2022 Michael E. Gibbons TVAd Mixed eng Pay  00:00:30 RP 
01/11/2022 vs Jane M. Timken TVAd Attack eng Know  00:00:30 RP 

BOOKS
Title Purchase Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Nov 16, 2021 06:00pm News Open Ohio Senate seat fueling wild GOP primary in key 2022 race  Article LEAPForward 

DISCUSSION
[View All
47
Previous Messages]
 
N:10739Max Rohtbart ( 1068.3129 points)
Sat, March 13, 2021 06:31:04 PM UTC0:00
This election is the Republicans to lose, but the last decade has taught us that if anyone can lose a winnable senate seat by nominating a crazy candidate it is the GOP.

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Sat, March 13, 2021 06:44:48 PM UTC0:00
This election is Mandel's to lose. They guy has really gone hard core towards the push button issues - even so far as to go after members of his own party.

Anti-mask. Anti-vax.

He has staked out some hard right ground to win the primary and discourage others from joining the primary.

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Mon, March 15, 2021 07:28:00 PM UTC0:00
?s=20

 
R:7114Kyle ( 752.3616 points)
Fri, April 16, 2021 04:05:57 PM UTC0:00
Between Timken, Mandel, Moreno, Vance and Gibbons, there may be an opening for a person who isn't worshipping at Trump's feet (ie Stivers).

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 520.1045 points)
Sun, April 18, 2021 08:21:46 AM UTC0:00
Vance is a candidate that Trump supporters would find agreeable.

But to characterize him as "worshipping at Trump's feet," merely reveals you to be a person with zero empathy for persons with partisan/ideological perspectives different from your own.

Being an ignorant bigot who hates everyone who votes differently from themselves, is considered a mark of distinction in this society.

You should probably run for publick orifice.

 
R:7114Kyle ( 752.3616 points)
x2
Sun, April 18, 2021 04:20:11 PM UTC0:00
Hikikomori Blitzkrieg!: Vance is a candidate that Trump supporters would find agreeable.

But to characterize him as "worshipping at Trump's feet," merely reveals you to be a person with zero empathy for persons with partisan/ideological perspectives different from your own.

Being an ignorant bigot who hates everyone who votes differently from themselves, is considered a mark of distinction in this society.

You should probably run for publick orifice.

The idea that I'm not open minded because I used some hyperbole about the Ohio senate candidates (based on the laughable details of the obsequious behavior of candidates at Mar-a-Lago just last week) is a bit of an overreaction. That story about their behavior in Florida, as well as other events, is quite chilling and shows a devotion to a cult of personality over principle.

And, yes, I don't believe JD Vance is authentic. He rails against the "elites", wants to punish private businesses he doesn't like, and defended Tucker Carlson after his racist advocacy of white replacement theory. All this after very strongly criticizing Trump's character in 2016, but turning into a massive defender the second doing so became publicly and financially lucrative. And railing against the "elites" despite being bankrolled by millions of dollars in donations from billionaires&graduating from Yale Law Scbool.

I am open minded and understand why people supported/support Donald Trump and populism. I'm in a big mormon family and everyone in my family supports Trump and I understand why. But, the behavior of these specific candidates? It is really unprincipled and deserves to be critiqued.

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Wed, June 2, 2021 06:25:40 PM UTC0:00
Vote for me.

?s=20

 
D:10973Patrick ( 0.0000 points)
Fri, June 4, 2021 01:50:09 AM UTC0:00
Now that COVID numbers are finally going down will be interesting to see if "encouraging your unvaccinated supporters to infect others with coronavirus" remains a workable campaign strategy.

 
R:11221Jewish conservative ( 297.1253 points)
Mon, January 3, 2022 08:25:22 PM UTC0:00
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Inbox: Rep Jim Banks (RSC chairman) endorses JD Vance in OH Sen primary</p>&mdash; James Arkin (@JamesArkin) <a href="
?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 10, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="[Link] charset="utf-8"></script>

 
R:10538Southern_Moderate2 ( 62.9320 points)
Tue, January 25, 2022 05:20:25 PM UTC0:00
Who is the least crazy candidate here? Timken?

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Tue, January 25, 2022 08:43:45 PM UTC0:00
I wonder if the MTG endorsement of JD Vance means that a Trump endorsement is forthcoming.

Once the campaign gets really started, he seems to have the highest ceiling.

 
R:10538Southern_Moderate2 ( 62.9320 points)
Tue, March 1, 2022 12:09:29 AM UTC0:00
I just want this race to be over so we can crown the king of the dumbasses.

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Sat, March 19, 2022 02:32:45 AM UTC0:00
Mandel seems like a real prick. Doesn't do much for Gibbons either.


 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.2285 points)
Sat, March 19, 2022 05:14:52 AM UTC0:00
so when does JD Vance see this and decide to try fighting one of the other candidates?

also, I know Mandel went to war and all, but I'm not sure he's the favorite in a fistfight here

 
R:7114Kyle ( 752.3616 points)
Thu, April 7, 2022 02:23:16 AM UTC0:00
Dolan-mentum!!

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Wed, April 27, 2022 01:25:08 AM UTC0:00
One week to go and this race is the definition of toss-up. But it would appear that in a close race, maybe Trumps recent endorsement of Vance is having a big impact.

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.2285 points)
Wed, April 27, 2022 02:24:59 AM UTC0:00
Dolan's poll led to a Trump statement where he denounced the Cleveland Indians/Guardians name change

 
R:250Mr. Politics ( 190.1725 points)
x3
Wed, April 27, 2022 06:53:23 PM UTC0:00
Anecdotal but it does feel like this is turning into a Vance vs Dolan race. We'll see.

 
LBT:10038Luzerne County Historian ( -406.9550 points)
Thu, April 28, 2022 01:08:48 AM UTC0:00
Come on Dolan, you can do it!

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 520.1045 points)
Thu, April 28, 2022 03:46:00 PM UTC0:00
Meanwhile....

Multiple sources tell Rolling Stone that it was Fox News host Tucker Carlson who spilled the dirt to Trump about McIntosh as evidence that Trump shouldn’t trust him.

“Carlson asserted… that McIntosh has an embarrassing and ‘chronic’ personal sexual habit,” the publication writes. “During that phone call, the twice-impeached former president spent a notable amount of time gossiping and laughing about the prominent Republican’s penis and how ‘f*cking disgusting’ and ‘f*cking gross’ he allegedly was.”

Additionally, reports Rolling Stone, Trump also suspected that there was something wrong with Mandel’s sexual habits.

“Trump had already displayed a long, abiding interest in Mandel’s own sex life, having already spent months privately regurgitating and spreading salacious, unverified rumors that he’s heard about ‘f*cking weird’ Mandel’s supposed debauched ongoings,” writes Rolling Stone. “Carlson’s comments about the proclivities of Mandel’s patron threw both Trump and his son into fits of laughter.”

 
I:9665ThatAlabamaGuy ( 39.6583 points)
x3
Mon, May 2, 2022 12:13:12 AM UTC0:00
Really do not feel like Mandel is going to do that well. Would not shock me to see him finish third or fourth.

 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
Mon, May 2, 2022 04:57:31 PM UTC0:00
Well, Trump has endorsed J.D. Mandel.

 
D:10973Patrick ( 0.0000 points)
Wed, May 4, 2022 01:35:35 AM UTC0:00
Trump forgetting who he endorsed has truly thrown this race wide open.

 
LBT:10038Luzerne County Historian ( -406.9550 points)
Wed, May 4, 2022 01:58:49 AM UTC0:00
From the results so far, it seems like the urban/suburban Republicans went more for Dolan. Vance is in the lead at the moment but alot of the suburban/urban votes still didn't come in yet whereas the rural ones are mostly done. Dolan could still pull ahead, depending who the remaining voters cast their ballots for.

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Wed, May 4, 2022 03:03:52 AM UTC0:00
ABC and AP called it for Vance. Ryan already out with a Vance attack ad.

[View Next Page]