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  FL US Senate - D Primary
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Florida > Senate Class III
OfficeSenate
HonorificSenator - Abbr: Sen.
TypeDemocratic Primary Election
Filing Deadline June 17, 2022 - 11:00am Central
Polls Open August 23, 2022 - 06:00am Central
Polls Close August 23, 2022 - 06:00pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2023 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2029 - 12:00pm
ContributorBrentinCO
Last ModifiedRBH August 30, 2022 09:09pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/08/2016
NameMarco A. Rubio Votes4,835,191 (51.98%)
Term01/03/2017 - 01/03/2023 Margin713,103 (+7.67%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/08/2022
NameMarco A. Rubio Votes4,474,847 (57.68%)
Term01/03/2023 - 01/03/2029 Margin1,273,325 (+16.41%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
RaceFL US Senate 11/08/2022
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
03/11/2021 08/23/2022
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Val Demings 4 1 --10
Leaning Call: Val Demings (100.00%)
Weighted Call: Val Demings (100.00%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

08/08/2022 08/12/2022

CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name Rep. Val Demings St. Rep. Brian P. Rush William Sanchez Ricardo "Ricky" De La Fuente  
PartyDemocratic Democratic Democratic Democratic  
Campaign Logo  
Certified Votes 1,263,706 (84.29%) 94,185 (6.28%) 84,576 (5.64%) 56,749 (3.79%)  
Margin0 (0.00%) -1,169,521 (-78.01%) -1,179,130 (-78.65%) -1,206,957 (-80.51%)  
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand 6/30 $12,565,103.00 $-- $-- $--  
Website [Campaign Site] [Website]  
Entry Date 06/09/2021 06/16/2022 02/09/2021 06/17/2022  
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (1 from 1 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg80.00%-- 4.00%-- 4.00%-- 2.00%--  
University of North Florida 
08/08/22-08/12/22
80.00% -- 4.00% -- 4.00% -- 2.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 

DROPPED OUT - NO VOTES
Alan Grayson (D)
Jun 08, 2021 - Jun 14, 2022
Ken Russell (D)
Jun 03, 2021 - May 01, 2022
Theodore E. "Ted" Deutch (D)
 00, 2022
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D)
 00, 2022
Stephanie Murphy (D)
May 24, 2021
Aramis Ayala (D)
May 19, 2021
Charlie Crist (D)
May 04, 2021

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
07/11/2022 Val Demings TVAd Mixed eng Chief Shows Up  00:00:30 RP 
06/12/2022 Val Demings TVAd Biography eng Protect and Serve  00:00:30 RP 
06/09/2021 Val Demings TVAd Biography eng Never Tire  00:00:30 LEAPForward 
06/03/2021 Web Only Ad Biography eng Getting Things Done  00:03:15 LEAPForward 

BOOKS
Title Purchase Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor

DISCUSSION
[View All
23
Previous Messages]
 
R:10538Southern_Moderate2 ( 62.9320 points)
Thu, January 28, 2021 04:56:33 PM UTC0:00
E Pluribus Unum: My view is simple if he runs I'll support him, but personally I wanted a newer face like Jen Perelman.

He may have been able to win in 2016, but maybe the magic is gone...

Are you on Mitch McConnell's payroll?

 
R:7114Kyle ( 752.3616 points)
Thu, January 28, 2021 05:02:49 PM UTC0:00
Southern_Moderate2: <q 9951="">My view is simple if he runs I'll support him, but personally I wanted a newer face like Jen Perelman.

He may have been able to win in 2016, but maybe the magic is gone...

Are you on Mitch McConnell's payroll?
At this point, his suggestions for senate in North Carolina and Florida have got me convinced that is a possibility.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
x2
Thu, January 28, 2021 05:13:06 PM UTC0:00
Cuz the people that were the nominees did SO WELL!

U all keep saying "WE GOTTA PICK THE SAFE COICES ITS THE ONLY WAY TO WIN" and yet Patrick Murphy, Claire McCaskill, Bill Nelson, Heidi Heitkamp, Bill Nelson, Joe Donnelly, Cal Cunningham, Amy McGrath, Sara Gideon, and Theresa Greenfield ****ing lost

Also Cecil Bothwell was not a "suggestion" it was a personal preference

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Thu, January 28, 2021 05:13:42 PM UTC0:00
E Pluribus Unum:
He may have been able to win in 2016, but maybe the magic is gone...

We are talking about the same Alan Grayson most people think is a nutjob? right?

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Thu, January 28, 2021 05:27:15 PM UTC0:00
Not most people think he's a nutjob, even so remember. It's Florida.

His magic was his relevancy to the era mixed in with him trying to adapt to the shifting Left of the year.

 
R:7114Kyle ( 752.3616 points)
x3
Thu, January 28, 2021 06:15:23 PM UTC0:00
E Pluribus Unum: Cuz the people that were the nominees did SO WELL!

U all keep saying "WE GOTTA PICK THE SAFE COICES ITS THE ONLY WAY TO WIN" and yet Patrick Murphy, Claire McCaskill, Bill Nelson, Heidi Heitkamp, Bill Nelson, Joe Donnelly, Cal Cunningham, Amy McGrath, Sara Gideon, and Theresa Greenfield ****ing lost

Also Cecil Bothwell was not a "suggestion" it was a personal preference

This falls apart logically. "A moderate democrat lost in a red-leaning state" does not mean that the inverse is true (a Bernie bro would have won.) The GOP blowing the 2010 Senate Elections because of nut job candidates is a strong parallel. And look, if you believe that Heidi Heitkamp was a bad candidate for democrats in North Dakota, I recommend you visit North Dakota.

If you want a true apples to apples comparison, compare the 2018 and 2020 West Virginia senate races.

 
BEER:10271WSNJ ( 446.1584 points)
Thu, January 28, 2021 06:26:21 PM UTC0:00
It's nearly impossible to find a democratic socialist who has succeed in any election outside of a heavy democratic district.

 
D:8509DylanSH99 ( 1716.1335 points)
Thu, January 28, 2021 06:45:11 PM UTC0:00
As someone who lives in Florida, I promise you that Alan Grayson will not win. He will not. He lost the Senate primary in '16 by 41 points. He lost by 32 points in the congressional primary in '18.

 
D:6086Jason (11889.0225 points)
Thu, January 28, 2021 06:59:31 PM UTC0:00
It doesn't matter who runs here. Florida might as well be Wyoming for the Democratic Party.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Thu, January 28, 2021 07:45:16 PM UTC0:00
Kyle: This falls apart logically. "A moderate democrat lost in a red-leaning state" does not mean that the inverse is true (a Bernie bro would have won.) The GOP blowing the 2010 Senate Elections because of nut job candidates is a strong parallel. And look, if you believe that Heidi Heitkamp was a bad candidate for democrats in North Dakota, I recommend you visit North Dakota.

If you want a true apples to apples comparison, compare the 2018 and 2020 West Virginia senate races.
I'm saying for a strategy that everyone claims is great and never fails, seems to be a lot a failures. Last time I checked 55.1%>44.3%

WSNJ: It's nearly impossible to find a democratic socialist who has succeed in any election outside of a heavy democratic district.
Nobody ever said Democratic Socialist. A primary example is the California 2018 Swing Seats

Harder, Cox, Porter, Hill, Rouda, Levin, and Cisneros ran and won on populist/progressive sounding rhetoric, but many of them took huge rightward shifts cuz that's "what they had to do to win re-election in s swing seat". The ones who didn't are still serving to this day

 
R:10538Southern_Moderate2 ( 62.9320 points)
Tue, May 18, 2021 10:22:15 PM UTC0:00
Murphy would have been the stronger candidate.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Wed, May 19, 2021 01:58:01 AM UTC0:00
Ur in luck Southern Moderate, she is also apparently gonna announce too

[Link]

 
D:391Qbanito ( 3054.5449 points)
Fri, May 21, 2021 03:06:15 AM UTC0:00
Aramis Ayala may run for Demings open seat instead of this race.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Wed, August 4, 2021 10:26:37 PM UTC0:00
Pretty shady of Alan
[Link]

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Sat, June 18, 2022 04:16:39 AM UTC0:00
Filing deadline hasn't passed and Ellison literally went into the qualification office today

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.2285 points)
Sat, June 18, 2022 04:33:33 AM UTC0:00
The filing deadline was today and Ellison is a candidate for FL23