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  OH District 11 - Special D Primary
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Ohio > OH - District 11
OfficeHouse of Representatives
HonorificRepresentative - Abbr: Rep.
TypeDemocratic Primary Election
Filing Deadline 00, 0000 - 04:00pm Central
Polls Open August 03, 2021 - 05:30am Central
Polls Close August 03, 2021 - 06:30pm Central
Term Start November 03, 2021 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2023 - 12:00pm
Turnout 12.18% Total Population
ContributorM@
Last ModifiedRBH October 26, 2021 03:55pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/03/2020
NameMarcia L. Fudge Votes242,098 (80.05%)
Term01/03/2021 - 03/10/2021 Margin181,775 (+60.11%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/02/2021
NameShontel M. Brown Votes82,913 (78.88%)
Term11/04/2021 - 01/03/2023 Margin60,715 (+57.76%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
RaceOH District 11 - Special Election 11/02/2021
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
12/09/2020 08/03/2021
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Nina Turner 4 3 2 3
Shontel M. Brown 2 ------
Leaning Call: Nina Turner (93.33%)
Weighted Call: Nina Turner (89.66%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

05/20/2021 07/17/2021

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Cty Brd. Shontel M. Brown Minority Whip Nina Turner City Councillor Jeffrey D. Johnson St. Rep. John E. Barnes, Jr. Assistant Minority Leader Shirley A. Smith Seth J. Corey Pamela M. Pinkney
PartyDemocratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes 38,505 (50.11%) 34,239 (44.56%) 1,388 (1.81%) 801 (1.04%) 599 (0.78%) 493 (0.64%) 184 (0.24%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -4,266 (-5.55%) -37,117 (-48.30%) -37,704 (-49.07%) -37,906 (-49.33%) -38,012 (-49.47%) -38,321 (-49.87%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand 7/14 $363,390.78 12/31 $480,386.78 3/31 $14,877.90 3/31 $5,882.02 $-- $-- $--
Website
Entry Date 12/09/2020 12/09/2020 12/09/2020 00/00/2021 00/00/2021 00/00/2021 00/00/2021
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (4 from 4 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg33.84%-- 38.00%-- 3.07%-- 1.07%-- 3.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--
Mellman Group (D) 
07/13/21-07/17/21
36.00% -- 41.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
TargetPoint Consulting (R) 
07/08/21-07/10/21
33.00% -- 33.00% -- 3.00% -- 1.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Normington, Petts & Associates (D) 
07/06/21-07/08/21
36.00% -- 43.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Tulchin Research/Acosta|Salazar 
05/20/21-05/26/21
15.00% -- 50.00% -- 4.00% -- 2.00% -- 3.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
D Jamaal Bowman 🔗
D Pramila Jayapal 🔗
D Mondaire Jones 🔗
D Rohit "Ro" Khanna 🔗
D Andy Levin 🔗
D Katie Porter 🔗
D Rashida H. Tlaib 🔗
D Robert B. Reich 🔗
D Charles Booker 🔗
D Bakari T. Sellers 🔗
PPD Carmen Yulín Cruz 🔗
D Ben Jealous 🔗
D Melissa Mark-Viverito 🔗
D Ben Cohen 🔗
D Sean "P. Diddy" Combs 🔗
D Danny Glover 🔗
D Mark Ruffalo 🔗
I Susan Sarandon 🔗
D Norman Solomon 🔗
D Marianne Williamson 🔗
D Yvette Simpson 🔗
D David Pepper 🔗
D Rhine McLin 🔗
D C. J. Prentiss 🔗
D Tavia Galonski 🔗
D Nicholas John Celebrezze 🔗
D Jesús G. "Chuy" García 🔗
D Jamie Raskin 🔗
D Pokemon
D Michael Dudley, Sr. 🔗
D Edward J. Markey 🔗
D Kenny Yuko 🔗
D Nickie Antonio 🔗
D Michael J. Skindell 🔗
D Janine R. Boyd 🔗
D Juanita Brent 🔗
D Phil Robinson 🔗
D Stephanie Howse 🔗
D Frank G. Jackson 🔗
  Cleveland Plain Dealer
I Charlotte Rose
D Ayanna S. Pressley 🔗
D Kara Eastman 🔗
D Ted W. Lieu 🔗
ALP Visigoethe
D Blaine A. Griffin 🔗
D Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 🔗
  Our Revolution
  Justice Democrats
  Progressive Democrats of America
  Democracy for America
D Randall Woodfin 🔗
I Michael "Killer Mike" Render 🔗
? Paula Jean Swearengin 🔗
For Andrew Yang 🔗
D Cenk Uygur 🔗
D Krystal Ball 🔗
D Sam Seder 🔗
I Cornel West 🔗
I Tulsi Gabbard 🔗
D Keith M. Ellison 🔗
D Eric H. Kearney 🔗
D Sandra Williams 🔗
I Bernie Sanders 🔗
S Charlotte K-A
I E Pluribus Unum
D Cori Bush 🔗
D Ilhan Omar 🔗
D Mark Pocan 🔗
LBR Old LW
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name Will Knight Tariq K. Shabazz Martin Alexander James Jerome Bell Lateek R. Shabazz Isaac Powell  
PartyDemocratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic  
Campaign Logo  
Certified Votes 182 (0.24%) 134 (0.17%) 105 (0.14%) 101 (0.13%) 61 (0.08%) 52 (0.07%)  
Margin-38,323 (-49.87%) -38,371 (-49.93%) -38,400 (-49.97%) -38,404 (-49.98%) -38,444 (-50.03%) -38,453 (-50.04%)  
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--  
Website  
Entry Date 00/00/2021 00/00/2021 00/00/2021 00/00/2021 00/00/2021 00/00/2021  
MATCHUP POLLS (4 from 4 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg1.00%-- 1.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--  
Mellman Group (D) 
07/13/21-07/17/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
TargetPoint Consulting (R) 
07/08/21-07/10/21
1.00% -- 1.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Normington, Petts & Associates (D) 
07/06/21-07/08/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Tulchin Research/Acosta|Salazar 
05/20/21-05/26/21
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 

DROPPED OUT - NO VOTES
Bryan E. Flannery (D)
Mar 30, 2021 - May 05, 2021
Sandra Williams (D)
 00, 2020

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
07/08/2021 Nina Turner vs Shontel M. Brown TVAd Defend eng Truth  00:00:30 RP 

BOOKS
Title Purchase Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor

DISCUSSION
[View All
53
Previous Messages]
 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 3906.0425 points)
Sun, July 25, 2021 12:04:23 AM UTC0:00
If you were a Brown campaign strategist, isn't the more potent line of attack against Turner that she won't be able to deliver due to always butting heads?

I mean, a mailer to older Democratic voters saying "Nina Turner said your vote for Joe Biden & Kamala Harris is like eating a bowl of sh*t"? Not a strategist, but I feel like that would be the "establishment" argument. It could work or totally flop (are people really concerned about how well you work with leadership?).

 
R:7114Kyle ( 752.3616 points)
Sun, July 25, 2021 12:47:31 AM UTC0:00
IndyGeorgia: If you were a Brown campaign strategist, isn't the more potent line of attack against Turner that she won't be able to deliver due to always butting heads?

I mean, a mailer to older Democratic voters saying "Nina Turner said your vote for Joe Biden & Kamala Harris is like eating a bowl of sh*t"? Not a strategist, but I feel like that would be the "establishment" argument. It could work or totally flop (are people really concerned about how well you work with leadership?).

If the 2020 presidential primary proved anything, it is that the "establishment" is much more of a plus than a negative in Democrat primaries. Joe Biden has a 90% approval rating among democrats---I think that line is perfectly helpful to her chances.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Sun, July 25, 2021 12:53:40 AM UTC0:00
The issue is Nina can easily point to times where she has worked with VASTLY diffrent people like John Kasich.

Its an argument that falls flat much like other arguments used against her

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 3906.0425 points)
Sun, July 25, 2021 01:13:17 AM UTC0:00
Fair point. Harder to redefine someone with a reputation than define someone without one. Guess the race comes down to what reputation most voters know.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Sun, July 25, 2021 02:31:24 AM UTC0:00
And it seems that Nina has that in the bag, Shontel was underestimated don't get me wrong but still, Nina still seems to be walking away with it

 
R:7114Kyle ( 752.3616 points)
Wed, August 4, 2021 12:53:32 AM UTC0:00
Brown leads by 20 with the early vote. That is not including the election day vote, where she is favored to do even better. Barring a stunner, she is going to win by a wide margin.

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.2285 points)
Wed, August 4, 2021 01:00:45 AM UTC0:00
underestimate the Cuyahoga County Council at your own peril?

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Wed, August 4, 2021 01:17:59 AM UTC0:00
Glad I walked away from SAFE Turner.

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.2285 points)
Wed, August 4, 2021 01:46:21 AM UTC0:00
the Tweet coverage is hedging hard since we don't really know how many in-person votes were cast here. I'd think Delta concerns moved some of the electorate back into early voting for this one.

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 3906.0425 points)
Wed, August 4, 2021 03:48:05 AM UTC0:00

 
BEER:10271WSNJ ( 446.1584 points)
x2
Wed, August 4, 2021 04:41:20 AM UTC0:00
The same thing as Trump’s stolen election bs.

 
BEER:10271WSNJ ( 446.1584 points)
x2
Wed, August 4, 2021 04:42:09 AM UTC0:00
It is nice to see a progressive candidate to go down in flames though.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Wed, August 4, 2021 04:51:14 AM UTC0:00
That's a stupid comparison when u actually look into finances in this election, it's pretty damning


[Link]

 
I:1038WA Indy ( 1790.9733 points)
Wed, August 4, 2021 04:54:01 AM UTC0:00
LOL

 
D:10973Patrick ( 0.0000 points)
Wed, August 4, 2021 06:48:36 AM UTC0:00
Distracted boyfriend meme where boyfriend is Democrats, girlfriend is things Democrats care about and woman being leered at is a generic moderate.

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Wed, August 4, 2021 08:42:15 AM UTC0:00
?s=21

 
BEER:10271WSNJ ( 446.1584 points)
Wed, August 4, 2021 01:47:14 PM UTC0:00
E Pluribus Unum: That's a stupid comparison when u actually look into finances in this election, it's pretty damning


[Link]
E Pluribus Unum: That's a stupid comparison when u actually look into finances in this election, it's pretty damning


[Link]


I don’t see your point other than a proposal to limit campaign spending.

 
R:7114Kyle ( 752.3616 points)
Wed, August 4, 2021 03:53:41 PM UTC0:00
E Pluribus Unum: U can lol all u want. I'm not seeing any rebuttals...

When you add in candidate spending, Shontel Brown was outspent more than 2:1.Over 90% of Turner's donations were from outside the district and the vast majority are unreported, due to small donor disclosure requirements. Meanwhile, we know exactly how much each outside group spent, as you proved by posting the above Twitter graphic. How is it "dark money" when we know exactly which groups spent and how much they spent?

Further, this idea that Nina was swamped by outside money is truly preposterous when SHE OUTSPENT BROWN MORE THAN 2-1, using donations that were almost exclusively out of the district.

It will always be something with the far-left and far-right: there is never a legitimate loss in your eyes.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Wed, August 4, 2021 04:06:08 PM UTC0:00
Lol, ur actually gonna make the argument that Nina having more money raised by small donors is a counter to the fact that outside groups spent more money solely on ads attacking Nina than every other outside group combined...

Nina's outside spending came from normal people, Shontels came from lobbyist groups

 
R:7114Kyle ( 752.3616 points)
x2
Wed, August 4, 2021 04:38:49 PM UTC0:00
E Pluribus Unum: Lol, ur actually gonna make the argument that Nina having more money raised by small donors is a counter to the fact that outside groups spent more money solely on ads attacking Nina than every other outside group combined...

Nina's outside spending came from normal people, Shontels came from lobbyist groups

When someone is outspent 2-1, I don’t think that people are able to actually notice whether the money came from “normal people” or not.

The truth is that this district voted for Biden and Clinton 2-1 over Bernie and Nina Turner is a bad fit for it. Just take the L and move on, instead of trying to act as if it is a conspiracy that pro-Israel groups opposed a virulently anti-Israel candidate.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Wed, August 4, 2021 04:56:38 PM UTC0:00
Who said anything about a conspiracy?

Literally all the things I am showing are public knowledge. It is public knowledge that DMFI spent more money on Anti-Nina ads then every other outside group combibed

If I didn't kniw any better I'd suggest ur just projecting ur own antisemetism onto me since ur the only petson bringing up conspiracies about jews here...

 
D:8255My Congressman is a Weiner ( -19.7986 points)
Wed, August 4, 2021 07:00:03 PM UTC0:00
So your explanation of “evil money” is ..?

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Wed, August 4, 2021 07:35:26 PM UTC0:00
Corporate SuperPACs, lobbyists, duh

 
I:1038WA Indy ( 1790.9733 points)
Wed, August 4, 2021 08:20:56 PM UTC0:00
My Congressman is a Weiner: So your explanation of “evil money” is ..?

Evil money is any money that didn't support the candidate I want...

Turner and her campaign knew what they were up against. She, her endorsers, allies, and online progressives had the funds to combat the "evil money." She blew her lead and lost a majority of primary voters, but we can't accept loss because that doesn't fit into our worldview that our preferred candidates will always win unless the election is rigged/stolen/whatever. Turner had the funds to compete with Brown's spending AND outside funding, she had name ID, grassroots support, a legislative record, and a lead in early polls. Turner blew it. But that's hard to accept, so instead it's "evil money" and corporatist Dems. LOL at the result, which I wasn't expecting at all, and LOL at progressive twitter excuses when they lose.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Wed, August 4, 2021 08:26:37 PM UTC0:00
Literally ignoring the millions raised by lobbyists in the last stretch lol @ u

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