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  TX Attorney General - R Primary
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Texas > Attorney General
OfficeAttorney General
HonorificAttorney General - Abbr: Attorney General
TypeRepublican Primary Election
Filing Deadline December 13, 2021 - 12:00pm Central
Polls Open March 01, 2022 - 07:00am Central
Polls Close March 01, 2022 - 07:00pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2023 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2027 - 12:00pm
ContributorBrentinCO
Last ModifiedRBH March 17, 2022 10:35pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/06/2018
NameKen Paxton Votes4,193,207 (50.57%)
Term01/15/2019 - 01/17/2023 Margin295,109 (+3.56%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/08/2022
NameKen Paxton Votes4,278,986 (53.42%)
Term01/17/2023 - 01/19/2027 Margin781,719 (+9.76%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
RaceTX Attorney General 11/08/2022
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
05/19/2021 03/01/2022
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Ken Paxton 4 3 1 2
George P. Bush 2 ------
Louie Gohmert 1 ------
Leaning Call: Ken Paxton (87.50%)
Weighted Call: Ken Paxton (102.86%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

06/20/2021 02/15/2022

CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name (I) Attorney General Ken Paxton Commissioner of Land George P. Bush Justice Eva Guzman Rep. Louie Gohmert  
PartyRepublican Republican Republican Republican  
Campaign Logo  
Certified Votes 823,199 (42.71%) 439,240 (22.79%) 337,761 (17.52%) 327,257 (16.98%)  
Margin0 (0.00%) -383,959 (-19.92%) -485,438 (-25.19%) -495,942 (-25.73%)  
Predict Avg.35.50% 42.50% 10.00% 27.00%  
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $--  
Website [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Website]  
Entry Date 05/18/2021 06/02/2021 06/15/2021 11/22/2021  
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (9 from 5 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg41.77%-- 21.33%-- 12.77%-- 11.29%--  
University of Texas - Tyler 
02/08/22-02/15/22
39.00% -- 25.00% -- 13.00% -- 7.00% --
University of Texas-Austin 
01/28/22-02/07/22
47.00% -- 21.00% -- 16.00% -- 15.00% --
University of Texas - Tyler 
01/18/22-01/25/22
33.00% 13.0 19.00% 13.0 7.00% -- 8.00% --
University of Houston 
01/14/22-01/24/22
39.00% -- 16.00% -- 8.00% -- 13.00% --
University of Texas - Tyler 
11/09/21-11/16/21
46.00% 3.0 32.00% 4.0 7.00% 2.0 0.00% --
YouGov 
10/22/21-10/31/21
48.00% -- 16.00% -- 2.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements  

DROPPED OUT - NO VOTES
Matt Krause (R)
 00, 2021 - Nov 23, 2021

EVENTS
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NEWS
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DISCUSSION
[View All
20
Previous Messages]
 
D:9642EastTexasDem ( 1194.2172 points)
Tue, July 27, 2021 08:03:53 PM UTC0:00
Ken Paxton is definitely favored to win the primary after this, but he is obviously a terrible candidate for the general. He's still likely to win, but he did have the worst statewide performance of any candidate besides Cruz in 2018.

 
R:10578justiceiscoming ( 1370.0793 points)
Tue, November 23, 2021 05:30:26 AM UTC0:00
Not if Gohmert makes the runoff, which I wouldn't bet against.

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 3906.0425 points)
Tue, November 23, 2021 02:32:39 PM UTC0:00
Yeah, I guess "happy" is relative. He went from "zero chance" to "a chance".

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.2285 points)
Thu, November 25, 2021 04:27:02 AM UTC0:00
while runoffs still exist and all, there's always some potential if you can make a runoff

 
D:9642EastTexasDem ( 1194.2172 points)
Tue, February 22, 2022 02:05:16 AM UTC0:00
I haven't been seeing too many ads for the gubernatorial race (Abbott started airing some soon after his official announcement, although I don't see them as much anymore), but there's been a constant back-and-forth on air between Paxton and Gohmert. Gohmert has talked about Paxton being corrupt and Paxton fired back by claiming that Gohmert betrayed East Texas by supporting Obama's liberal agenda (lol). I don't know what the support looks like on the ground here, but my guess is that this will be his strongest region, but still probably won't be enough to carry a county. Maybe Smith, and only then it'll probably be with a small margin.

 
R:10538Southern_Moderate2 ( 62.9320 points)
Tue, March 1, 2022 05:36:59 AM UTC0:00
I wanna know how Hikikomori endorsed the more moderate / establishment type.

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.2285 points)
Wed, March 2, 2022 04:59:57 AM UTC0:00
we'll forget this election by November but there's an outside case for Gohmert for CPOTY mostly for giving up a safe Congressional seat to finish last in a race for Attorney General

 
D:9642EastTexasDem ( 1194.2172 points)
Wed, March 2, 2022 06:12:48 AM UTC0:00
Whelp, my prediction that Gohmert wouldn't carry a county was *very* wrong. Guzman also did better than I was expecting.

 
LBT:10038Luzerne County Historian ( -406.9550 points)
Wed, March 2, 2022 01:41:38 PM UTC0:00
I wonder if Bush will be able to pull out a win in the runoff.

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 520.1045 points)
x2 x2
Sat, March 5, 2022 05:36:09 PM UTC0:00
Paxton's enthusiasm for trolling transgender activism, has put him back into my good graces.