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  WI US Senate - D Primary
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Wisconsin > Senate Class III
OfficeSenate
HonorificSenator - Abbr: Sen.
TypeDemocratic Primary Election
Filing Deadline July 01, 2022 - 12:00pm Central
Polls Open August 09, 2022 - 07:00am Central
Polls Close August 09, 2022 - 08:00pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2023 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2029 - 12:00pm
ContributorRP
Last ModifiedRBH August 29, 2022 12:42am
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/08/2016
NameRon Johnson Votes1,479,471 (50.17%)
Term01/03/2017 - 01/03/2023 Margin99,136 (+3.36%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/08/2022
NameRon Johnson Votes1,337,185 (50.41%)
Term01/03/2023 - 01/03/2029 Margin26,718 (+1.01%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
RaceWI US Senate 11/08/2022
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
02/05/2021 08/09/2022
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Mandela Barnes 4 2 2 10
Leaning Call: Mandela Barnes (100.00%)
Weighted Call: Mandela Barnes (100.00%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

11/11/2021 06/20/2022

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes Alex Lasry Treasurer Sarah Godlewski County Executive Tom Nelson Steven Olikara Darrell Williams Kou C. Lee
PartyDemocratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes 390,279 (77.78%) 44,609 (8.89%) 40,555 (8.08%) 10,995 (2.19%) 5,619 (1.12%) 3,646 (0.73%) 3,434 (0.68%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -345,670 (-68.89%) -349,724 (-69.70%) -379,284 (-75.59%) -384,660 (-76.66%) -386,633 (-77.06%) -386,845 (-77.10%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand 7/20 $990,495.81 $-- 7/20 $332,157.34 $-- $-- $-- $--
Website [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site]
Entry Date 07/20/2021 02/16/2021
Dropped Out
07/27/2022
04/14/2021
Dropped Out
07/29/2022
10/26/2020
Dropped Out
07/25/2022
08/17/2021 05/27/2022 06/01/2022
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (8 from 5 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg26.85%-- 23.05%-- 10.85%-- 6.59%-- 0.50%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--
Marquette University Law School 
06/14/22-06/20/22
25.00% 6.0 21.00% 5.0 9.00% 2.0 7.00% 2.0 0.50% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Normington, Petts & Associates (D) 
05/18/22-05/22/22
34.00% 1.0 31.00% 4.0 18.00% 11.0 5.00% 2.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Marquette University Law School 
04/19/22-04/24/22
19.00% -- 16.00% -- 7.00% -- 5.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Impact Research 
03/16/22-03/23/22
38.00% -- 17.00% -- 9.00% -- 8.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Marquette University Law School 
02/26/22-02/27/22
23.00% -- 13.00% -- 3.00% -- 5.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.30% -- 0.00% --
Normington, Petts & Associates (D) 
02/23/22-02/27/22
35.00% -- 27.00% -- 7.00% -- 7.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name Peter Peckarsky (W) Write-In  
PartyDemocratic Democratic  
Campaign Logo  
Certified Votes 2,446 (0.49%) 177 (0.04%)  
Margin-387,833 (-77.29%) -390,102 (-77.75%)  
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand $-- $--  
Website [Campaign Site]  
Entry Date 07/05/2021 07/01/2022  
MATCHUP POLLS (8 from 5 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg1.00%-- 0.00%--  
Marquette University Law School 
06/14/22-06/20/22
1.00% -- 0.00% --
Normington, Petts & Associates (D) 
05/18/22-05/22/22
0.00% -- 0.00% --
Marquette University Law School 
04/19/22-04/24/22
1.00% -- 0.00% --
Impact Research 
03/16/22-03/23/22
0.00% -- 0.00% --
Marquette University Law School 
02/26/22-02/27/22
0.30% -- 0.00% --
Normington, Petts & Associates (D) 
02/23/22-02/27/22
0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 

DROPPED OUT - NO VOTES
Chantia Lewis (D)
Jul 21, 2021 - Jun 00, 2022
Adam Murphy (D)
Jul 05, 2021 - Jun 00, 2022
Jeff Rumbaugh (D)
Jun 00, 2022
Gillian M. Battino (D)
Feb 23, 2022
Chris Larson (D)
May 26, 2021 - Aug 03, 2021
Gwen Moore (D)
Jul 27, 2021
Mark Pocan (D)
Jan 04, 2021

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
07/21/2022 Sarah Godlewski TVAd Issue eng Where Were You  00:00:30 RP 
07/11/2022 Mandela Barnes TVAd Issue eng Right  00:00:30 RP 
07/06/2022 Alex Lasry TVAd Biography eng Alex Lasry's new ad  00:00:30 RP 
02/16/2021 Alex Lasry Candidacy Announcement Mixed eng Alex Lasry for U.S. Senate  00:04:43 RP 

BOOKS
Title Purchase Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Dec 09, 2021 11:00am News Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes releases first progressive policy  Article LEAPForward 

DISCUSSION
[View All
20
Previous Messages]
 
R:7114Kyle ( 752.3616 points)
Wed, July 27, 2022 07:46:40 PM UTC0:00
Incredible how things consolidated so quickly here.

Also, Barnes is an incredibly weak candidate and Johnson will beat him handily. Kind of disappointing for Democrats—a Tim Ryan type candidate here would have a strong chance.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Wed, July 27, 2022 07:51:48 PM UTC0:00
How is Barnes a weak candidate?

Poll wise Lasry seemed to be the weakest of Him, Barnes, Sarah, and Tom

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4947.9873 points)
Wed, July 27, 2022 08:12:25 PM UTC0:00
Kyle: Also, Barnes is an incredibly weak candidate and Johnson will beat him handily.

The Marquette poll done in June had Barnes marginally better than other Democrats and ahead of Johnson. Johnson has alot of liabilities - before he decided to run for re-election there was alot of talk about whether Republicans would be better off without the incumbent running.

 
R:7114Kyle ( 752.3616 points)
Wed, July 27, 2022 11:24:07 PM UTC0:00
E Pluribus Unum: How is Barnes a weak candidate?

Poll wise Lasry seemed to be the weakest of Him, Barnes, Sarah, and Tom

The whole field was quite weak, making this seat a difficult one to flip in a Republican year.

As I’ve seen things; it seems like Barnes has the far-left baggage of someone like Fetterman, but faces a much more established figure in Ron Johnson. I despise Johnson, but it seems someone like Ron Kind would have been a better fit.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Wed, July 27, 2022 11:44:05 PM UTC0:00
Kyle: The whole field was quite weak, making this seat a difficult one to flip in a Republican year.

As I’ve seen things; it seems like Barnes has the far-left baggage of someone like Fetterman, but faces a much more established figure in Ron Johnson. I despise Johnson, but it seems someone like Ron Kind would have been a better fit.

"Far-Left Baggage"

Do you know: NOTHING about Wisconsin? Barnes is literally right at home in the state of Russ Feingold, William Proxmire, Gaylord Nelson, and the Lafollettes...

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.2285 points)
Thu, July 28, 2022 12:29:57 AM UTC0:00
you'd think the complete lack of any power would make the Wisconsin State Treasurer more popular since they can't do anything unpopular either

 
D:2109Ashley ( 5514.9624 points)
Sat, July 30, 2022 07:05:40 PM UTC0:00
I don’t think Johnson is going to lose re-election, but saying that Barnes’ ideological leanings are a massive liability when Tammy Baldwin has won two Senate races in Wisconsin is indeed a weird statement.

Ron Kind’s probably got massive baggage that somehow never emerged from his district if he constantly refused every overture to run for anything other than his House seat despite the fact that he seems like the perfect statewide/higher federal office candidate on paper.

 
I:1038WA Indy ( 1790.9733 points)
Sat, July 30, 2022 07:22:38 PM UTC0:00
Ashley:
Ron Kind’s probably got massive baggage that somehow never emerged from his district if he constantly refused every overture to run for anything other than his House seat despite the fact that he seems like the perfect statewide/higher federal office candidate on paper.

I used to be friends with someone who worked for him years go. I don't think Kind's got baggage, other than blandness, I think he's genuinely so risk averse that he just never ran for anything else.

 
R:10538Southern_Moderate2 ( 62.9320 points)
Sun, July 31, 2022 04:36:01 AM UTC0:00
Ron Kind would have been a stellar recruit