I live in Western Pennsylvania and the Pittsburgh suburbs or a exurban area near Pittsburgh, and I live less than a mile away from Lamb's district (I live in Doyle's district), and I doubt he'll end up like Ron Klink given that from what I have seen, he is campaigning on being a generic mainstream Democrat and if I had to guess, he won't attract a lot of crossover, especially with his focus on "DEMOCRACY" but I doubt he'll struggle to win suburban voters in Philly. He is my second choice after Fetterman because I like him because of his win in 2018 as he was in my district before the redistributing in 2018.

I live in Western Pennsylvania and the Pittsburgh suburbs or a exurban area near Pittsburgh, and I live less than a mile away from Lamb's district (I live in Doyle's district), and I doubt he'll end up like Ron Klink given that from what I have seen, he is campaigning on being a generic mainstream Democrat and if I had to guess, he won't attract a lot of crossover, especially with his focus on "DEMOCRACY" but I doubt he'll struggle to win suburban voters in Philly. He is my second choice after Fetterman because I like him because of his win in 2018 as he was in my district before the redistributing in 2018. He's running as more outspokenly Democratic in the primary than he has been (having not talked about things like campaign finance reform out in PA-18/17), a competitive primary being something he's never had to contend in (at least publicly, the 2018 convention excluded), and the question being how credibly he can pivot back to being the moderate Conor Lamb that sacked three (frankly awful) Republican nominees in two years in an area west of Pittsburgh in which Trump did well. A more recent analogy to me is Mark Critz, who ran to the left of Jason Altmire following redistricting and really wasn't able to make a credible transition back while consolidating the base, in my assessment. I think Lamb has a better shot of doing that than Critz ever did, but remains to be seen how it pans out, and that's more a gut sense than anything that can really be empirically credible. I think Lamb fits his current district well and I will be sorry to see him go. I misspoke when I said suburbs because living in Pittsburgh, I'm used to the surrounding neighborhoods being suburbs rather than adjacent counties. I did mean Philadelphia itself. Fair enough, all good. Thanks for clarifying. Can certainly understand that. He reminds me a bit of Ron Klink. A conservative westerner whose appeal will not translate to Philly. My memory of Ron Klink was that he was virtually comparable to, and almost as outspoken as, Rick Santorum on certain social issues. I think, frankly, Lamb is a superior politician to Klink, and has been a bit more careful to not completely alienate his more liberal potential support, taking into account the party's visible shift to the left -- though the criticism is not an unfair one, and that Klink also had to emerge from a crowded, expensive Democratic primary should be something at the front of Lamb's mind and those of his supporters. In any case, unlike Klink or Critz, Lamb doesn't have the toxicity of an anti-abortion stance that I think was key to both candidates' difficulty in wrangling the base. But, again, I think those sorts of good faith criticisms of Lamb are fair, and I do wonder what the effect of a primary would be. The worst case scenario, to me, is one in which Fetterman and Lamb try to "out-liberal" each other in the primary (regardless of their actual liberalism) in a way that shatters Fetterman's potential cross-geographical, almost apolitical appeal and Lamb's aura as a moderate who can snag the middle (to the extent that it exists).

Is it reasonable to suppose that one motive behind Conor Lamb's running in this primary, is because he questions his ability to hold onto his seat in 2022? I'm pretty sure it is.

Yes cuz all polls show him getting destroyed in the primary

I think it's also that he joins a long list of politicians who have a "moment" but then don't realize how short people's attention spans are and how little that "moment" resonates with people who aren't engaged 24/7. See: James, Tish; O'Rourke, Beto

Is it reasonable to suppose that one motive behind Conor Lamb's running in this primary, is because he questions his ability to hold onto his seat in 2022? I'm pretty sure it is. Yes. His seat is almost certain to flip post-redistricting (if it even exists).

Best announcement I can hear outside of Lamb dropping out https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/15/conor-lamb-senate-penn-00008919

If you're rooting for Dr. Oz

The more Pennsylvanians have seen of Oz, the less they've liked him. The opposite is usually true with Fetterman.

I like Fetterman. I think he and Lamb have a similar chance of winning the general.

From all the stuff I've seen, Lamb's tent is just not as big as Fettermans. Lamb can get: Centrist Dems, Republicans who voted Trump for Economic Reasons, Western PA. Fetterman can get all that PLUS Progressives and Eastern PA due to being a statewide figure with more appeal to everyone. The only people arguing against Fetterman are people with hate boners for the left and nit objectively looking at the facts. In a race as tight as this: losing potential voters is not the best idea. Which the PA Dem Party admitted, which us why they are staying out

I like Fetterman. I think he and Lamb have a similar chance of winning the general. Ideologically, I like Lamb. But I maintain that John Fetterman is the most personally genuine individual I've met in politics.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/599666-how-fetterman-is-pulling-away-in-pennsylvania

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/21/pennsylvania-primary-super-pac-00018771

Please don't post bare links. At least give a short description so people can tell if they want to click on them.

My bad. Won't do it in the future

extra, if you wanna quote something from the article, you could type < q > and < /q > (with no spaces) around the quote instead of using quotation marks. Although a *brief* quotation with typed quotation marks works too. I emphasized brief since fair use exists and pasting an entire article wouldn't be a great idea. Example of the Q quotation HTML

two candidates from Western PA and two candidates from Eastern PA either we're getting an interesting map with Fetterman/Lamb 1-2, or Kenyatta is gonna do better than expected (both are possible at the same time)

https://twitter.com/jonathantamari/status/1510703421694820358

Unfortunately Cynic, ur opinion seems to matter little to broad discourse, as the random Centrist Lamb Stans will just keep saying Lamb has a better shot despite every Pennsylvanian I've seen is not too enthused over Lamb at all.

Fetterline is going to win here. Primary is one month away. Only question I have is whether Kenyatta finishes ahead of Lamb or vice versa. Lamb in 2022 for State Treasurer.

Another thing is Lamb's campaign is trying to be very "online" and that just doesn't win races, especially not in this state. I say to Kenyatta's credit, his campaign was the one I thought would be "online", but it really hasn't been like that at all.

Lamb threw his hat in here because he thought, probably not unjustifiably, that he'd be butchered by redistricting. It was a career hedge, but one which I don't get the sense Lamb's heart is in entirely. The calculus was obviously wrong, and his campaign for Senate has been one that has relied too heavily on the coalescence of the establishment and, with it, the rank-and-file and the centrists not far behind. Fetterman is on the runaway as a result. I think he can be a good general election candidate. Separate and apart from party politics, his is a distinctly proletarian, almost apolitical, appeal. That's potentially significant.

Lamb and Fetterman would both be good general election candidates who are able to appeal to broader strokes of people in PA in different way, but if I was a dem I'd feel more comfortable with Fetterman. Sorry I haven't been contributing much lately. I always feel my opinion is always more valuable when it comes to elections, not policy.

Sorry I haven't been contributing much lately. I always feel my opinion is always more valuable when it comes to elections, not policy. Contribute however you feel comfortable.