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  PA US Senate
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Pennsylvania > Senate Class III
OfficeSenate
HonorificSenator - Abbr: Sen.
Type General Election
Filing Deadline April 07, 2022 - 12:00pm Central
Polls Open November 08, 2022 - 06:00am Central
Polls Close November 08, 2022 - 07:00pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2023 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2029 - 12:00pm
ContributorM@
Last ModifiedRBH December 22, 2022 03:27pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/08/2016
NamePat Toomey Votes2,951,702 (48.77%)
Term01/03/2017 - 01/03/2023 Margin86,690 (+1.43%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Jan 29, 2022 PA US Senate - D Endorsement
No Endorsement
D 318
May 17, 2022 PA US Senate - D Primary
John K. Fetterman
D 1,284,908
May 17, 2022 PA US Senate - R Primary
Mehmet C. Oz
R 1,346,091
May 17, 2022 PA US Senate - LBT Convention
Erik Gerhardt
LBT 1
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
11/09/2020 11/08/2022
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
John K. Fetterman 23 3 --1
Mehmet C. Oz 12 2 ----
Tossup 2 ------
Leaning Call: John K. Fetterman (64.71%)
Weighted Call: John K. Fetterman (64.47%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

05/07/2021 11/05/2022

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Lt. Gov. John K. Fetterman Mehmet C. Oz Erik Gerhardt Richard L. Weiss Daniel Wassmer (W) Quincy Magee (W) Write-In
PartyDemocratic Republican Libertarian Green Keystone Independent Nonpartisan
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes 2,751,012 (51.25%) 2,487,260 (46.34%) 72,887 (1.36%) 30,434 (0.57%) 26,428 (0.49%) 0 (0.00%) 0 (0.00%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -263,752 (-4.91%) -2,678,125 (-49.89%) -2,720,578 (-50.68%) -2,724,584 (-50.76%) -2,751,012 (-51.25%) -2,751,012 (-51.25%)
Predict Avg.49.56% 48.78% 1.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand 3/31 $4,161,725.25 10/19 $2,636,787.75 $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
Website [Campaign Site] [Website] [Website] [Website]
Entry Date 02/08/2021 11/30/2021 08/19/2021 03/21/2022 04/07/2022 04/07/2022 04/07/2022
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (44 from 29 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg47.00%-- 45.06%-- 0.81%-- -0.18%-- 0.67%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--
Patriot Polling 
11/02/22-11/05/22
48.10% -- 49.40% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Remington Research 
11/01/22-11/02/22
44.00% -- 47.00% -- 2.00% -- 1.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Marist Institute 
10/31/22-11/02/22
51.00% -- 45.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Monmouth University 
10/27/22-10/31/22
48.00% -- 44.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Beacon Research (D) / Shaw & Company (R) - FOX News 
10/26/22-10/30/22
45.00% -- 42.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
co/efficient 
10/26/22-10/28/22
45.00% -- 48.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
S Tax Suchart
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name (W) Ronald Johnson (W) Osborne G. Hart  
PartyConstitution Socialist Workers  
Campaign Logo  
Certified Votes 0 (0.00%) 0 (0.00%)  
Margin-2,751,012 (-51.25%) -2,751,012 (-51.25%)  
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand $-- $--  
Website  
Entry Date 04/07/2022 04/07/2022  
MATCHUP POLLS (44 from 29 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg0.00%-- 0.00%--  
Patriot Polling 
11/02/22-11/05/22
0.00% -- 0.00% --
Remington Research 
11/01/22-11/02/22
0.00% -- 0.00% --
Marist Institute 
10/31/22-11/02/22
0.00% -- 0.00% --
Monmouth University 
10/27/22-10/31/22
0.00% -- 0.00% --
Beacon Research (D) / Shaw & Company (R) - FOX News 
10/26/22-10/30/22
0.00% -- 0.00% --
co/efficient 
10/26/22-10/28/22
0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 

DROPPED OUT - NO VOTES
Everett A. Stern (I)
Apr 07, 2022 - Oct 25, 2022

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
10/27/2022 vs Mehmet C. Oz TVAd Biography eng Local Political Leaders  00:00:30 CA Pol Junkie 
09/26/2022 John K. Fetterman vs Mehmet C. Oz TVAd Defend eng Sheriff  00:00:30 RP 
09/07/2022 Mehmet C. Oz vs John K. Fetterman TVAd Mixed eng Give Back  00:00:30 RP 
09/01/2022 vs John K. Fetterman TVAd Attack eng Chased  00:00:30 RP 
08/07/2022 vs John K. Fetterman TVAd Attack eng Oz hits Fetterman for sanctuary cities and on crime  00:00:30 RP 
07/14/2022 Mehmet C. Oz vs John K. Fetterman TVAd Attack eng Dr. Oz Welcomes John Fetterman to Campaign Trail  00:01:00 RP 
07/08/2022 John K. Fetterman vs Mehmet C. Oz TVAd Attack eng Dude  00:00:30 RP 
06/01/2022 vs John K. Fetterman TVAd Attack eng Protests  00:00:30 RP 
05/17/2022 vs TVAd Attack eng Has Its Price  00:00:30 RP 
05/17/2022 vs Mehmet C. Oz TVAd Attack eng Showtime  00:00:30 RP 
05/12/2022 John K. Fetterman TVAd Feel Good eng Momentum  00:00:30 RP 

BOOKS
Title Purchase Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Oct 03, 2022 12:00pm General Dr. Oz’s Scientific Experiments Killed Over 300 Dogs, Entire Litter of Puppies  Article RP 
Aug 29, 2022 05:00pm News McConnell says he has ‘great confidence’ in Oz  Article WA Indy 
Aug 14, 2022 02:25pm Analysis Fetterman keeps attacking Oz for being from New Jersey. That’s resonating in parochial Pa.  Article BrentinCO 

DISCUSSION
[View All
77
Previous Messages]
 
D:8509DylanSH99 ( 1716.1335 points)
x3
Wed, October 26, 2022 01:54:45 AM UTC0:00
As a Democrat, this debate is hard to watch. I do not see Fetterman winning this election anymore.

 
D:6086Jason (11889.0225 points)
Wed, October 26, 2022 04:45:40 AM UTC0:00
I tend to believe debates don't matter, at least for Republicans. But the general consensus seems to be that Fetterman's performance was difficult to watch, and given the huge collapse in his numbers since August I'm inclined to believe this pushes Oz over the edge.

As a sidebar, I did think at the time that left-leaning Twittersphere got too clever by half over the crudité thing for two reasons: (1) it played into the idea that Democrats were aloof and dismissive of inflation and (2) these highly-educated suburbanite voters that Democrats have fallen in love with over the past few years probably identify more on the Oz side of calling it something pretentious.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Wed, October 26, 2022 05:37:34 AM UTC0:00
It's not the best look, but given the fact this is the same nation that elected Feinstein & Biden despite similar concerns, I'd say the race probably has not changed much due to the debate.

It might actually be a lot like 2020 in that regard

 
WmP:879Chronicler ( 84.4516 points)
Wed, October 26, 2022 12:50:13 PM UTC0:00
Also I was confused about the fracking question. Anyone who follows Pennsylvania politics knows about Fetterman's support for fracking because his position varies from the usual Democratic position. Is it possible that the 2014 interview transcript had an error that was never corrected?

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Wed, October 26, 2022 03:47:53 PM UTC0:00
Before Fetterman won a statewide office he was very much anti-fracking, but after becoming Lt Gov, he adapted to have a mixed stance on it

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4947.9873 points)
Wed, October 26, 2022 06:01:45 PM UTC0:00
Debates don't make any difference in the outcome, but I'm sure Fetterman will make sure everyone in Pennsylvania sees Oz's line that abortion is between "a woman, her doctor, and local political leaders".

 
?:801400 ( 284.4383 points)
Wed, October 26, 2022 06:46:50 PM UTC0:00
I'm sure Oz would like all of the focus on each candidate's respective debate performance from now until election day.

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.2285 points)
Wed, October 26, 2022 10:06:22 PM UTC0:00
Democrats have to fall in love, Republicans just have to fall in line

 
?:801400 ( 284.4383 points)
Wed, October 26, 2022 10:47:41 PM UTC0:00
Or…articulate themselves in a coherent manner. Poor things.

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.2285 points)
Thu, October 27, 2022 12:40:27 AM UTC0:00
Just have to contrast Fetterman and Herschel Walker.

Quite a few Dems are wetting the bed over Fetterman because they always panic and expect to lose close elections. Meanwhile quite a few Rs would expect Walker to win because the expectation is that D base voters only vote once every four years and R base voters always vote.

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 3906.0425 points)
Wed, November 9, 2022 05:54:41 AM UTC0:00
NBC has called this for Fetterman.

 
D:6454Mr. Matt ( 1761.4666 points)
Wed, November 9, 2022 06:16:56 AM UTC0:00
F yeah! Screw New Jersey!

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Wed, November 9, 2022 06:41:49 AM UTC0:00
I wonder if Oz will move out of his in-laws house and back to NJ.

 
I:8766Pennsylvanian ( 404.1051 points)
Wed, November 9, 2022 12:11:21 PM UTC0:00
BrentinCO: I wonder if Oz will move out of his in-laws house and back to NJ.

For all of the talk about Fetterman's debate performance, I maintain he got a pretty good one in when he suggested to Oz, "Why don't you pretend you live in Vermont instead of Pennsylvania and run against Bernie Sanders" in response to Oz pushing the Sanders attack. One of the crucial factors here is just how much of an unlikeable, carpetbagging jack*** this guy really is. If he does head for the exit, it won't be a minute too soon.

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.2285 points)
Wed, November 9, 2022 11:24:59 PM UTC0:00
got a bit of a fun change% map here from 2016 to 2022

 
WmP:879Chronicler ( 84.4516 points)
Thu, November 10, 2022 10:16:31 PM UTC0:00
Michael Smerconish said that when he first saw the result in my county (Montgomery) that the margin was so wide he thought it had to be a typo.

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