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  PA US Senate
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Pennsylvania > Senate Class III
OfficeSenate
HonorificSenator - Abbr: Sen.
Type General Election
Filing Deadline April 07, 2022 - 12:00pm Central
Polls Open November 08, 2022 - 06:00am Central
Polls Close November 08, 2022 - 07:00pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2023 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2029 - 12:00pm
ContributorM@
Last ModifiedRBH December 22, 2022 03:27pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/08/2016
NamePat Toomey Votes2,951,702 (48.77%)
Term01/03/2017 - 01/03/2023 Margin86,690 (+1.43%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Jan 29, 2022 PA US Senate - D Endorsement
No Endorsement
D 318
May 17, 2022 PA US Senate - D Primary
John K. Fetterman
D 1,284,908
May 17, 2022 PA US Senate - R Primary
Mehmet C. Oz
R 1,346,091
May 17, 2022 PA US Senate - LBT Convention
Erik Gerhardt
LBT 1
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
11/09/2020 11/08/2022
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
John K. Fetterman 23 3 --1
Mehmet C. Oz 12 2 ----
Tossup 2 ------
Leaning Call: John K. Fetterman (64.71%)
Weighted Call: John K. Fetterman (64.47%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

05/07/2021 11/05/2022

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Lt. Gov. John K. Fetterman Mehmet C. Oz Erik Gerhardt Richard L. Weiss Daniel Wassmer (W) Quincy Magee (W) Write-In
PartyDemocratic Republican Libertarian Green Keystone Independent Nonpartisan
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes 2,751,012 (51.25%) 2,487,260 (46.34%) 72,887 (1.36%) 30,434 (0.57%) 26,428 (0.49%) 0 (0.00%) 0 (0.00%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -263,752 (-4.91%) -2,678,125 (-49.89%) -2,720,578 (-50.68%) -2,724,584 (-50.76%) -2,751,012 (-51.25%) -2,751,012 (-51.25%)
Predict Avg.49.56% 48.78% 1.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand 3/31 $4,161,725.25 10/19 $2,636,787.75 $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
Website [Campaign Site] [Website] [Website] [Website]
Entry Date 02/08/2021 11/30/2021 08/19/2021 03/21/2022 04/07/2022 04/07/2022 04/07/2022
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (44 from 29 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg47.00%-- 45.06%-- 0.81%-- -0.18%-- 0.67%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--
Patriot Polling 
11/02/22-11/05/22
48.10% -- 49.40% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Remington Research 
11/01/22-11/02/22
44.00% -- 47.00% -- 2.00% -- 1.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Marist Institute 
10/31/22-11/02/22
51.00% -- 45.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Monmouth University 
10/27/22-10/31/22
48.00% -- 44.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Beacon Research (D) / Shaw & Company (R) - FOX News 
10/26/22-10/30/22
45.00% -- 42.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
co/efficient 
10/26/22-10/28/22
45.00% -- 48.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
S Tax Suchart
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name (W) Ronald Johnson (W) Osborne G. Hart  
PartyConstitution Socialist Workers  
Campaign Logo  
Certified Votes 0 (0.00%) 0 (0.00%)  
Margin-2,751,012 (-51.25%) -2,751,012 (-51.25%)  
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand $-- $--  
Website  
Entry Date 04/07/2022 04/07/2022  
MATCHUP POLLS (44 from 29 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg0.00%-- 0.00%--  
Patriot Polling 
11/02/22-11/05/22
0.00% -- 0.00% --
Remington Research 
11/01/22-11/02/22
0.00% -- 0.00% --
Marist Institute 
10/31/22-11/02/22
0.00% -- 0.00% --
Monmouth University 
10/27/22-10/31/22
0.00% -- 0.00% --
Beacon Research (D) / Shaw & Company (R) - FOX News 
10/26/22-10/30/22
0.00% -- 0.00% --
co/efficient 
10/26/22-10/28/22
0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 

DROPPED OUT - NO VOTES
Everett A. Stern (I)
Apr 07, 2022 - Oct 25, 2022

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
10/27/2022 vs Mehmet C. Oz TVAd Biography eng Local Political Leaders  00:00:30 CA Pol Junkie 
09/26/2022 John K. Fetterman vs Mehmet C. Oz TVAd Defend eng Sheriff  00:00:30 RP 
09/07/2022 Mehmet C. Oz vs John K. Fetterman TVAd Mixed eng Give Back  00:00:30 RP 
09/01/2022 vs John K. Fetterman TVAd Attack eng Chased  00:00:30 RP 
08/07/2022 vs John K. Fetterman TVAd Attack eng Oz hits Fetterman for sanctuary cities and on crime  00:00:30 RP 
07/14/2022 Mehmet C. Oz vs John K. Fetterman TVAd Attack eng Dr. Oz Welcomes John Fetterman to Campaign Trail  00:01:00 RP 
07/08/2022 John K. Fetterman vs Mehmet C. Oz TVAd Attack eng Dude  00:00:30 RP 
06/01/2022 vs John K. Fetterman TVAd Attack eng Protests  00:00:30 RP 
05/17/2022 vs TVAd Attack eng Has Its Price  00:00:30 RP 
05/17/2022 vs Mehmet C. Oz TVAd Attack eng Showtime  00:00:30 RP 
05/12/2022 John K. Fetterman TVAd Feel Good eng Momentum  00:00:30 RP 

BOOKS
Title Purchase Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Oct 03, 2022 12:00pm General Dr. Oz’s Scientific Experiments Killed Over 300 Dogs, Entire Litter of Puppies  Article RP 
Aug 29, 2022 05:00pm News McConnell says he has ‘great confidence’ in Oz  Article WA Indy 
Aug 14, 2022 02:25pm Analysis Fetterman keeps attacking Oz for being from New Jersey. That’s resonating in parochial Pa.  Article BrentinCO 

DISCUSSION
[View All
77
Previous Messages]
 
R:10538Southern_Moderate2 ( 62.9320 points)
Sun, August 21, 2022 11:56:10 PM UTC0:00
He's running a shi**y campaign

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 3906.0425 points)
Wed, August 24, 2022 03:00:41 AM UTC0:00
His staff hates him:

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Wed, August 24, 2022 04:51:03 AM UTC0:00
Whoever is managing his messaging is doing a putrid job. These are truly free ones he's giving to the Fetterman campaign.

And give Fetterman and his staff credit for taking advantage very quickly and effectively of these unforced errors by Oz.

 
LBT:10038Luzerne County Historian ( -406.9550 points)
x2
Fri, August 26, 2022 03:33:16 AM UTC0:00
You'd think Oz and his team were trying to lose.

 
I:8766Pennsylvanian ( 404.1051 points)
Fri, August 26, 2022 12:56:03 PM UTC0:00
I have heard it said that one of the most significant challenges of running a high-profile campaign is to effectively project the candidate's "true, authentic self". Well, by that measure, I'd have to say Oz's is enjoying immense success -- in spades -- because his has done such a phenomenal job of making abundantly clear just how much of an a****** this guy really is.

 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
Mon, August 29, 2022 02:49:36 PM UTC0:00




Interesting repurposing of campaign signs.

 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
Tue, September 6, 2022 10:21:01 PM UTC0:00
How is this going to play? Trump is going to be livid.


 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Tue, September 6, 2022 10:30:58 PM UTC0:00
Seems really desperate.

He gained 5 votes and lost 5000.

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4947.9873 points)
Tue, September 6, 2022 11:06:05 PM UTC0:00
BrentinCO: He gained 5 votes and lost 5000.

At least it happened to be the right thing to say as far as democracy is concerned.

 
D:8509DylanSH99 ( 1716.1335 points)
Wed, September 7, 2022 08:04:53 AM UTC0:00

 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
Wed, September 7, 2022 01:22:26 PM UTC0:00
He's technically right if politically tone deaf.

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4947.9873 points)
Wed, September 7, 2022 02:30:16 PM UTC0:00
RP: He's technically right if politically tone deaf.

Of course, he wasn't a politician when he said it. It is ironic that this might be a rare instance of him providing nominally accurate medical information.

 
WmP:879Chronicler ( 84.4516 points)
Tue, September 13, 2022 07:47:44 PM UTC0:00
Here is the new Pennsylvania Senate poll that Jason predicted yesterday.

 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
Tue, October 4, 2022 07:16:08 PM UTC0:00
Really, this is what annoys me the most about Oz. Not the elitism, the carpetbagging, the sanctimoniousness, even the puppy killing. It's that he got richer selling bull**** snake oil to gullible people.

 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
Fri, October 7, 2022 09:23:03 PM UTC0:00

 
I:1038WA Indy ( 1790.9733 points)
Fri, October 7, 2022 09:34:56 PM UTC0:00
This might help him...

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Fri, October 7, 2022 11:01:56 PM UTC0:00
Still kinda surprised he didn't bring some of the excellent TV talent from his tv world onto his campaign staff. These type of small details are always picked up by people who see life through a camera lense and in many cases are quite intentional when staging a tv / photo shot as they support the spoken message about the candidate.


 
D:6454Mr. Matt ( 1761.4666 points)
Fri, October 7, 2022 11:36:18 PM UTC0:00
At least he didn't wreck it

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 520.1045 points)
Wed, October 19, 2022 02:55:55 AM UTC0:00
It's still gonna be close, but I no longer expect Fetterman to win.
Which surprises the Hell out of me.
I've seldom been so sure someone was gooing to win a seriously contested race, and subsequently changed my mind.
But a stroke is a major life event.

 
R:10578justiceiscoming ( 1370.0793 points)
Wed, October 19, 2022 09:03:17 PM UTC0:00
I’ve been predicting an Oz victory even when polls had Fetterman up by double digits. It’s almost impossible to escape a state’s partisanship+national environment. I learned that lesson in VA Sen 2014 and WI Sen 2016 (among others).

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4947.9873 points)
Wed, October 19, 2022 10:14:06 PM UTC0:00
justiceiscoming: It’s almost impossible to escape a state’s partisanship+national environment.

A really bad Senate candidate can manage to lose in a purple state regardless of the environment. Dr. Oz may not be quite as bad as Herschel Walker, but he is still a bad candidate. The national environment is unclear as well: although inflation helps Republicans, Dobbs helps Democrats.

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 520.1045 points)
Wed, October 19, 2022 11:37:30 PM UTC0:00
Dr. Oz may not be quite as bad as Herschel Walker, but he is still a bad candidate.

Sure...but there are two bad candidates in the Pennsylvania Senate race.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Thu, October 20, 2022 12:19:25 AM UTC0:00
Hikikomori Blitzkrieg!: Sure...but there are two bad candidates in the Pennsylvania Senate race.

I count 3: Oz, Gerhardt. & Wassmer

 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
Thu, October 20, 2022 03:30:09 PM UTC0:00
Don't think that would be a good thing.

 
WmP:879Chronicler ( 84.4516 points)
Wed, October 26, 2022 01:47:43 AM UTC0:00
The debate is being held right now. Both Fetterman and Oz are fairly vague in their answers. Fetterman's stutter isn't too bad; a few times he had trouble getting the right word out. Oz has a few prepared lines that he repeats too much. I think Oz is doing slightly better on the whole but I don't know if it will be enough to get him across the 50% line.

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